Jump to content

June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Recommended Posts

Except yesterday, right? Was that just a fluke? :)

 

Or, perhaps the (diurnal) persistence of lower boundary layer saturation varies depending on streamflow and upstream differential heating gradients, which would explain modest errors in cloud cover/thermals? Just think about it.

 

 

No... yesterday was one of the 20% of the days it was not too cool.   

 

Watch it for a month and get back to me.   I watch it every single day.   I know what you will find because it does not change.  Its OK for the ECMWF to have some kind of challenge or weakness.   I am not blaming you.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No... yesterday was one of the 20% of the days it was not too cool.

 

Watch it for a month and get back to me. I watch it every single day. I know what you will find because it does not change. Its OK for the ECMWF to have some kind of challenge or weakness. I am not blaming you. :)

All good. Believe me, I'm watching. Bigly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All good. Believe me, I'm watching. Bigly.

 

You will come up with some crazy explanation how the ECMWF does not really mean SEA when it shows "KSEA" but actually it means the shaded side of a cold storage building 2 miles away and that is why its 3-5 degrees too cool on 80% of the days.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes... 61 is the official high on the 12Z run.   It rarely shows a post-5 p.m. high here but it did today.  

 

It's pretty common to see the high of the day after 5pm north of 45º and a week away from the solstice. 5:30-6pm is and always has been the sweet spot for peak heating.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's pretty common to see the high of the day after 5pm north of 45º and a week away from the solstice. 5:30-6pm is and always has been the sweet spot for peak heating.

 

I realize it happens fairly often in reality.   The ECMWF almost never shows it.   And its easy to tell on the ECMWF because 5 p.m. here is 00Z.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize it happens fairly often in reality.   The ECMWF almost never shows it.   And its easy to tell on the ECMWF because 5 p.m. here is 00Z.  

 

Use the meteograms for temps! Wxbell has a great layout for the ECMWF making it quick and simple.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You will come up with some crazy explanation how the ECMWF does not really mean SEA when it shows "KSEA" but actually it means the shaded side of a cold storage building 2 miles away and that is why its 3-5 degrees too cool on 80% of the days. :)

I just told you what the WxBell meteogram for SEA actually represents, so you won't have to worry about that. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just so we're clear, I'm not arguing the model can't or doesn't run warm or cool with surface thermals in various situations. I'm arguing that it's not a "bias" inherent to the model. Big difference there in terms of applicability.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just so we're clear, I'm not arguing the model can't or doesn't run warm or cool with surface thermals in various situations. I'm arguing that it's not a "bias" inherent to the model. Big difference there in terms of applicability.

 

Just so we are clear... when I see the same 3-5 degree cool bias at KRNT and KBFI and on the max temp map for King County on the ECMWF runs then I know its not an issue with the station itself.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just so we are clear... when I see the same 3-5 degree cool bias at KRNT and KBFI and on the max temp map for King County on the ECMWF runs then I know its not an issue with the station itself. :)

Who said it was an issue with the station?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, I think the 00z GFS is probably correct with the sharper ridge early next week. That's closer to what you'd expect to precede a retrogression during an ongoing removal of AAM.

 

Of course, it mishandles the retrogression, but that will correct with time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a good shot of rain I'll be missing this week. Rained about 0.35" up here today. 59/45. Seasonably chilly. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice morning.

 

Hit 42 this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, the 12z GFS is more coherent w/ the retrogression, and less bullish on the jet extension. Closer to the 00z EPS ensemble mean solution in many respects.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#drainthegulf

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9FD56C9A-7BF4-41F2-8C6D-A636E8966F82_zpsyzokdtef.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF has come around to the retrogression idea that Phil has been talking about for the last couple weeks.

 

Looks like he is going to nail it.  :) 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF has come around to the retrogression idea that Phil has been talking about for the last couple weeks.

 

Looks like he is going to nail it. :)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

Thanks man [knocks on wood]. Now I have to avoid screwing up for another 2+ months. :lol:

 

I think you'll like the late June and July pattern better than this one given the drier, more northerly streamflow overall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models now flood the WA lowlands with low clouds under a building ridge on Sunday.   This is a change.   I now revoke my offer to bet on the high temp for Sunday.   All bets off with the new scenario being shown.   

 

Unfortunate that we might miss out on warm weather during a couple days of ridging.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models now flood the WA lowlands with low clouds under a building ridge on Sunday. This is a change. I now revoke my offer to bet on the high temp for Sunday. All bets off with the new scenario being shown.

 

Unfortunate that we might miss out on warm weather during a couple days of ridging.

What a tool...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models now flood the WA lowlands with low clouds under a building ridge on Sunday. This is a change. I now revoke my offer to bet on the high temp for Sunday. All bets off with the new scenario being shown.

 

Unfortunate that we might miss out on warm weather during a couple days of ridging.

Lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems to be clouding up a little earlier than anticipated today.

 

Clouding up?  It cleared up for about an hour.  

 

Looks like that is sum total of any meaningful sun for this work week.    Summer!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clouding up? It cleared up for about an hour.

 

Looks like that is sum total of any meaningful sun for this work week. Summer!

The forecast for down here was partly cloudy early, and near 70. I wasn't expecting a solid cloud deck by noon. Pleasant surprise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People be riding models like it's December. Funny stuff.

I don't see anyone "model riding". Models swing back and forth all the time, and I think most here recognize this.

 

Some models struggle with patterns like this, but these problems eventually work themselves out. In this case, the ECMWF/EPS suite is probably best suited to handle the retrogression going forward. And again, I think most here recognize this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...