June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

[Front Ranger]

I don't see anyone "model riding". Models swing back and forth all the time, and I think most here recognize this.

 

Some models struggle with patterns like this, but these problems eventually work themselves out. In this case, the ECMWF/EPS suite is probably best suited to handle the retrogression going forward. And again, I think most here recognize this.

There has been more commentary on model runs than any June I've been here. Surpassing last year, which was also a new record. Kinda like global temps LOL.

[Phil]

There has been more commentary on model runs than any June I've been here. Surpassing last year, which was also a new record. Kinda like global temps LOL.

Yeah, what is this, a weather forum or something?

 

FWIW, I'm pretty sure last year had more. At least as far as my contributions are concerned.

[Phil]

[model post] The 18z GFS is pulling an old-school Euro with that ridiculous offshore trough exchange [/model post]

[Front Ranger]

You seemed to disappear for a few weeks after some embarrassingly fumbled calls near the end of May. It's all good. Sometimes we all need to take some time off to reflect.

 

It's looking more likely that June ends a little below normal, fwiw.

 

I was busy/traveling, but thanks for missing me buddy! 

[Deweydog]

Oh that Flatiron!

[Phil]

No need to be defensive. I didn't even call out anyone by name, or say it was a bad thing.

How was that defensive? Lighten up, brother.

[Front Ranger]

I think he is trying to make a botched run for the "Above the Fray" suite. Hurry Dewey, kick out the ladder!

 

The only call I've made recently was for a warm May. And then near average June.

[Front Ranger]

How was that defensive? Lighten up, brother.

 

I've been the one laughing.

 

 

See?

[TT-SEA]

The only call I've made recently was for a warm May. And then near average June.

 

Kudos appear to be in order!  

[Phil]

I've been the one laughing.

 

 

See?

I'm lost as to what it is you're even arguing. It feels like you're trying to make a subtle point about something but I can't pick out what that something might be.

[Jesse]

I was busy/traveling, but thanks for missing me buddy!

Sometimes traveling can be a great way to find yourself!

[Front Ranger]

I'm lost as to what it is you're even arguing. It feels like you're trying to make a subtle point about something but I can't pick out what that something might be.

 

You might be reading a bit too deeply into things. 

[Phil]

Kudos appear to be in order!

Dude deserves a medal. Possibly a Nobel prize for outstanding long range weather forecasting. Or something like that.

[Front Ranger]

Dude deserves a medal. Possibly a Nobel prize for outstanding long range weather forecasting. Or something like that.

 

I'm not hunting kudos. Jesse claimed I've been blowing calls left and right, I was just putting the facts out there in response.

[Deweydog]

Sometimes traveling can be a great way to find yourself!

Bon voyage!

[Phil]

 

I'm not hunting kudos. Jesse claimed I've been blowing calls left and right, I was just putting the facts out there in response.

I was kidding around. I haven't once attacked your forecast or claimed you're blowing calls. I actually thought your May forecast was solid, at least until you went all-in at the buzzer.

[Phil]

Classic ridge location on the d11-16 18z GEFS mean.

 

The bias corrected GEFS will be out shortly.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BFA575AD-32DC-481C-9A6C-22E78ECBDEE5_zpsrhcc77wo.gif

[wx_statman]

Pretty cool video of a downburst from Minsk, Belarus (54 N). Comes in at 39 second mark:

 

[Phil]

Here's the bias-corrected GEFS mean. Definitely more bullish on the retrogression and downstream trough, which usually suggests the regular GFS/GEFS will be trending that way too.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CABC491D-8B05-4795-9EDB-F1DF15F89DA2_zpsjf3ebjly.gif

[Phil]

Here's the bias-corrected GEFS mean. Definitely more bullish on the retrogression and downstream trough, which usually suggests the regular GFS/GEFS will be trending that way too.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CABC491D-8B05-4795-9EDB-F1DF15F89DA2_zpsjf3ebjly.gif

Note the tilted ridge axis and the surrounding horseshoe of low geopotential heights. That's a clear signal for a continuous retrogression as we leave June and enter July, in my opinion.

[Jesse]

Bon voyage!

Where are you going? I figured traveling above the fray and back every day was already a pretty tolling commute.

[TT-SEA]

Nice afternoon... plenty of filtered sun here.   

[Deweydog]

Where are you going? I figured traveling above the fray and back every day was already a pretty tolling commute.

Hopefully you have a good miles card. You have quite a few selfs to find. Bring a neck pillow and noise cancelling ear phones.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Classic ridge location on the d11-16 18z GEFS mean.

 

The bias corrected GEFS will be out shortly.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BFA575AD-32DC-481C-9A6C-22E78ECBDEE5_zpsrhcc77wo.gif

In your opinion, how does the progression of things look for us going into the Fourth of July?

[Phil]

In your opinion, how does the progression of things look for us going into the Fourth of July this year?

I'm thinking Aleutian/EPO block, with a dryish meridional western trough that will be in the process of splitting, instead of the zonal flow we've seen recently.

 

I could be wrong about the exact configuration, though.

[Deweydog]

In your opinion, how does the progression of things look for us going into the Fourth of July?

Cloudy or mostly sunny with a chance of rain. Highs 70 to 95.

[Jesse]

Hopefully you have a good miles card. You have quite a few selfs to find. Bring a neck pillow and noise cancelling ear phones.

Are you accusing me of having multiple personality disorder.

[Deweydog]

Are you accusing me of having multiple personality disorder.

Like an old school Frosted Shredded Wheat commercial.

[wx_statman]

LGA hit 101*F today. Amazing considering they're right on the water and it's only June. If confirmed, it ties the early season 100+ record, which was set back in 1952.

 

101 indeed. The earliest 100 was actually on 6/10/2008 (teleconnection to our massive trough on that day), while the previous earliest 101 was on 6/26/1952. 

[wx_statman]

It should be noted, however, that LGA has been running conspicuously warmer than either Central Park or JFK. 

 

LGA reported 97 on May 18th, an early season record. Central Park was 92 and JFK was 85. 

 

And yesterday, while LGA hit 101, Central Park and JFK were both 94. 

 

This could be just the local wind patterns, as LGA is positioned differently in relation to water bodies than either Central Park or JFK. Or possibly there's a sensor issue. I don't know enough about the inter-NYC temp tendencies to say anything more. 

[DareDuck]

Glad to help remind you. It can be easy to want to forget about major busts like that. At the time you seemed pretty sure about it.

 

Calling for a warmer than average May around the time the models started trending warmer for the second half of the month was impressive, though. You can most certainly keep that one. Getting ahead of yourself and going for a top 10 warm month was also pretty understandable given the context. All the winning started going to your head.

Dude let your gripe go. You complain about Tim's constant posts about the same topic then do the same. We get it, FR is a d-bag.

[Phil]

00z GFS is back on track through 168hrs.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS is back on track through 168hrs.

 

Looks fairly pleasant next week verbatim on the 00Z GFS... temps at or just slightly above normal and dry with NW flow.

[Phil]

Looks fairly pleasant next week verbatim on the 00Z GFS... temps at or just slightly above normal and dry with NW flow.

Looks that way. Keep in mind that after midweek, it's probably too beefy with the residual SW US anticyclone and too far offshore with the shortwave. Could still be nice though. I don't know.

[Phil]

The pattern in general should be moving away from the extended jet stuff for awhile. So maybe that'd allow for more offshore flow at times.

[TT-SEA]

The pattern in general should be moving away from the extended jet stuff for awhile. So maybe that'd allow for more offshore flow at times.

 

We don't get offshore flow during the summer very often... and when we do its usually really hot.  

[Jesse]

We don't get offshore flow during the summer very often... and when we do its usually really hot.  

 

There are different degrees of offshore flow. You don't need east winds at the surface for it to count, like you might see during some of our very hottest days. Light offshore flow or even dead (ish) gradients are pretty common in the summer, and can give us moderately warm to very warm days without much trouble. Especially once we get into July and August.

[Phil]

SeaTac hit 65*F today, so the 70*F forecast from the GFS MOS was actually worse than the 61*F from the 00z ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

SeaTac hit 65*F today, so the 70*F forecast from the GFS MOS was actually worse than the 61*F from the 00z ECMWF.

 

Yep... ECMWF bias still stands though.   3-5 degrees too cool most of the time.    GFS did not pick up on the extent of the cloud cover this afternoon.   I don't think the GFS MOS has a bias... its just wrong on some occasions because it misses some key factor.   Its wrong in both directions equally from what I can tell.  

 

The ECMWF showed that it would not get above 62 at SEA until Saturday afternoon and its been 65 both days since.