June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Wow @ these polar cap heights:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7A9DB29B-4594-4AC7-AE19-1B1AE1B5A70D_zpsfrs1vpfl.png

[Jesse]

Yeah, not the same.

Semantic Sity!

 

It's ok. Admitting when you are wrong, or incorrectly recalled a prediction you made, would give you needed gravitas.

[Phil]

Wow @ these polar cap heights:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7A9DB29B-4594-4AC7-AE19-1B1AE1B5A70D_zpsfrs1vpfl.png

Note the western ridging in mid/late May was confined to the period of lower heights throughout the NAM column (troposphere and stratosphere).

 

Not much vertical coupling at this time of year, but the driver(s) of this low frequency (upper level) NAM certainly plays a role in the interaction between the tropical convection and planetary wave train, hence affecting the ENSO/system state in the long run.

[Phil]

The 18z GFS has already shifted significantly over the NPAC by days 3/4. Looks more realistic than 12z so far.

[Front Ranger]

Semantic Sity!

 

It's ok. Admitting when you are wrong, or incorrectly recalled a prediction you made, would give you needed gravitas.

 

I've admitted when I was wrong. You tried to stretch what I said into something different. Saying a top 10 warm May was "probably on the table for some places" besides SEA is not the same as saying it's "likely for many places". Why change what I actually said?

 

Fun game of Gotcha! though.

 

What is true is that since April I was calling for a much nicer, warmer May (relative to average, and also the pattern of Feb-Apr). And that did happen.

[Jesse]

I've admitted when I was wrong. You tried to stretch what I said into something different. Saying a top 10 warm May was "probably on the table for some places" besides SEA is not the same as saying it's "likely for many places". Why change what I actually said?

 

Fun game of Gotcha! though.

 

What is true is that since April I was calling for a much nicer, warmer May (relative to average, and also the pattern of Feb-Apr). And that did happen.

Yes. Of course you are going to focus on a small, inconsequential difference in wording. That is normal for you. Whatever happened to your predictions being just in regard to the last half of May? I found a quote that you made, that directly went against that claim, and now you are simply attempting the morph the argument into something else, rather than just owning up to forgetting you had said that, or whatever. Typical Flatiron tactics, underscoring why I have no respect for your argument style. You are more preoccupied with twisting things in any way possible as to appear "right" that you are with having substantive discussion.

 

The call for May to be "nicer" than February-April was certainly ballsy, though, considering it almost never works out that way. I will give you that.

[Phil]

FWIW, the updated ECMWF weeklies are troughy right through June into early/mid July. Almost looks like a cold season jet.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the updated ECMWF weeklies are troughy right through June into early/mid July. Almost looks like a cold season jet.

 

Temperature anomalies on the ECMWF weeklies show cooler than normal through the rest of June and the normal into July for our area.

[Phil]

Weeks one through six:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BE34BC05-DE01-4948-9CCB-33C7E3415C00_zpsa1c8jvlf.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/47A7A605-DCCD-44C0-8CB7-547F504A18A0_zpsldygc73b.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7C969650-FAF6-4A56-A0D8-127A6C74C3F3_zpslf97bhom.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/59C43C27-E535-43A8-B1E5-DBB7D2FC8703_zps4elsugys.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5B4A0A87-2E03-4321-8A90-A1D90E5CF100_zps2lvzpt6l.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/309932E8-E281-4840-9698-56F76305FF8A_zpsuxayeazw.png

[Jesse]

This feels kind of like a deja vu of early last summer. At least discussion wise.

[DareDuck]

This feels kind of like a deja vu of early last summer. At least discussion wise.

I just want to know if "on the table" means "likely" in your opinion? Unless there's some other quote I'm missing, I don't see FR calling for a likely top 10 warmest May at many places.

 

Same for Phil and "hard to say" equaling "warmer than average". I get you guys don't like his style, but today, and today alone, it's not him doing the word twisting.

[Phil]

Temperature anomalies on the ECMWF weeklies show cooler than normal through the rest of June and the normal into July for our area.

Yeah, there's a lot of ensemble spread after week four. That's not surprising though.

[Jesse]

I just want to know if "on the table" means "likely" in your opinion? Unless there's some other quote I'm missing, I don't see FR calling for a likely top 10 warmest May at many places.

 

Same for Phil and "hard to say" equaling "warmer than average". I get you guys don't like his style, but today, and today alone, it's not him doing the word twisting.

There are other quotes/parts of the conversation you are missing. Probably best not to take sides unless you know the whole story.

[DareDuck]

On another note, Cascade Lakes Highway opened today providing access to many high elevation lakes and peaks. Devils, Sparks, and lower elevation lakes to the south are accessible though above Elk Lake there is still considerable snow. Todd Lake is still inaccessible by car and requires a walk of about a mile through 8-10 inches of snow. Higher peaks such as Three Sisters and Broken Top obviously have several feet of snow still.

[DareDuck]

There are other quotes/parts of the conversation you are missing. Probably best not to take sides unless you know the whole story.

Well don't provide a quote that doesn't back up your point.

[Front Ranger]

Yes. Of course you are going to focus on a small, inconsequential difference in wording. That is normal for you. Whatever happened to your predictions being just in regard to the last half of May? I found a quote that you made, that directly went against that claim, and now you are simply attempting the morph the argument into something else, rather than just owning up to forgetting you had said that, or whatever. Typical Flatiron tactics, underscoring why I have no respect for your argument style. You are more preoccupied with twisting things in any way possible as to appear "right" that you are with having substantive discussion.

 

The call for May to be "nicer" than February-April was certainly ballsy, though, considering it almost never works out that way. I will give you that.

 

It wasn't a prediction, I just said it was possible. Just like a top 10 warm May at SEA, and possibly other places. If the heat ridge had hung on through the end of the month, easily could have happened. Big deal...you're just looking for something to "nail" me on. 

 

And I already said a May nicer/warmer relative to average.

 

Wettest Feb-Apr in history followed by warmest/boringest second half of May in history?

 

Looks possible!

 

 

If the 12z Euro verified, would certainly be in the running for a lot of places.  

[Jesse]

Well don't provide a quote that doesn't back up your point.

Did Jared hack this account or something?

 

He was denying that he had ever talked about the chance of areas outside of SEA seeing a top 10 warm May, and that all he had ever predicted was a top warm last half of the month. My quote did a fine job of pointing out that he had indeed discussed the possibility of a top 10 warm May outside of SEA. That was my only point. Maybe it wasn't the perfect quote for it since the wording was ever so slightly different. I'm sure there were ones that better illustrated my point but I just grabbed the first one. I'm not a huge fan of digging back through weeks of old posts, generally.

[Front Ranger]

I just want to know if "on the table" means "likely" in your opinion? Unless there's some other quote I'm missing, I don't see FR calling for a likely top 10 warmest May at many places.

 

Same for Phil and "hard to say" equaling "warmer than average". I get you guys don't like his style, but today, and today alone, it's not him doing the word twisting.

 

Objective voices of reason can be hard to find here. Thanks.

[Jesse]

Objective voices of reason can be hard to find here. Thanks.

No, he is just mistaken. Jumping into a debate he clearly knows very little about, outside of what had been posted today.

[Front Ranger]

Did Jared hack this account or something?

 

He was denying that he had ever talked about the chance of areas outside of SEA seeing a top 10 warm May, and that all he had ever predicted was a top warm last half of the month. My quote did a fine job of pointing out that he had indeed discussed the possibility of a top 10 warm May outside of SEA. That was my only point. Maybe it wasn't the perfect quote for it since the wording was ever so slightly different. I'm sure there were ones that better illustrated my point but I just grabbed the first one. I'm not a huge fan of digging back through weeks of old posts, generally.

 

No, that's not what happened. You're trying to twist my words to fit your little vendetta. Silly and obvious.

 

Yet another butt hurt outbreak rears its ugly head.

[Jesse]

No, that's not what happened. You're trying to twist my words to fit your little vendetta. Silly and obvious.

 

Yet another butt hurt outbreak rears its ugly head.

Jesus Christ Jared.

 

You were wrong one this one. Both your initial prediction and subsequent attempt to re-write history. Let's just move on.

[Jesse]

This is a pretty boring argument. If people were better at admitting to being wrong in the first place this sort of thing wouldn't even be needed.

[Phil]

I imagine nature is laughing its arse off reading this thread, looking for ways to bruise our egos and psyches.

[Front Ranger]

This is a pretty boring argument. If people were better at admitting to being wrong in the first place this sort of thing wouldn't even be needed.

 

The only reason this "argument" even happened was because you lashed out when I pointed out a factual inaccuracy on your part. It's been 4 summers of above normal temps in the western lowlands, and you said 5. That's not debatable.

 

So in response, you went completely off-topic in a flailing attempt to get back at me for pointing out you were wrong. Blatantly obvious, and equally hilarious. 

[DareDuck]

 

Ok...all I said was that SEA might have a chance at a top 10 May. Had the warmth continued through the end of the month, as some models suggested, they probably would have. It was a warm May, so I didn't blow that call.

 

Lashing out because I corrected a statement you made does not demonstrate much improvement in the butt hurt department.

I don't know. Doesn't sound like he was denying that they had a chance. As to the "I didn't blow the call", I don't know about that either. He was right about the nicer May call, but the call about a potential top 10 warm May (albeit small potential) was wrong. It's possible to be right and wrong in that regard.

[Front Ranger]

I imagine nature is laughing its arse off reading this thread, looking for ways to bruise our egos and psyches.

 

Mother Nature proves us all wrong. 

[DareDuck]

I imagine nature is laughing its arse off reading this thread, looking for ways to bruise our egos and psyches.

Nature sure has a funky way of showing it. 75 degrees, 30 Dp, and 18% percent humidity under sunny skies with a light breeze. Doesn't get much better.

 

Even the potential cooler weather this weekend looks great. Maybe some fresh snow up above 6000'.

[Jesse]

The only reason this "argument" even happened was because you lashed out when I pointed out a factual inaccuracy on your part. It's been 4 summers of above normal temps in the western lowlands, and you said 5. That's not debatable.

 

So in response, you went completely off-topic in a flailing attempt to get back at me for pointing out you were wrong. Blatantly obvious, and equally hilarious.

No Jared. I had been meaning to ask you about the top 10 warm thing for awhile. But you haven't been on for a few weeks (probably waiting for the heat to die off from numerous busted calls).

 

The last five summers thing was a dumb counting error on my part. For some reason I included this year, if it were to end up warm, which obviously is yet to be seen. But see, I can easily admit to a dumb mistake without throwing out every deflection and excuse in the book. Hopefully that provides a good example for you in the future.

[Front Ranger]

I don't know. Doesn't sound like he was denying that they had a chance. As to the "I didn't blow the call", I don't know about that either. He was right about the nicer May call, but the call about a potential top 10 warm May (albeit small potential) was wrong. It's possible to be right and wrong in that regard.

 

Well, I definitely was calling for a warmer/drier May, a pattern change relative to normal. Albeit without much theatrics, detail, or graphs of the tropics. That worked out, but it's not a big deal. Only brought it up because Jesse went on the attack about my recent "predictions".

 

The more detailed comments like SEA and some places possibly having a shot at top 10 warm May, warmest second half on record (may have been some places, don't care enough to check) were just that - commentary.

[Front Ranger]

No Jared. I had been meaning to ask you about the top 10 warm thing for awhile. But you haven't been on for a few weeks (probably waiting for the heat to die off from numerous busted calls).

 

The last five summers thing was a dumb counting error on my part. For some reason I included this year, if it were to end up warm, which obviously is yet to be seen. But see, I can easily admit to a dumb mistake without throwing out every deflection and excuse in the book. Hopefully that provides a good example for you in the future.

 

You sure that's what happened today?  

[Phil]

Overall, I think Flatiron's call for a warm May was solid. He overran the bag last minute during that stretch of torchy model runs, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen a complete collapse of model guidance like that anyway. It was definitely worse than I thought it would be.

 

Last July, I recall making a comment about -10F anomalies or something after a stretch of very chilly model runs, and got burned as a result. We all have an inner weenie.

[Jesse]

Yep, that's exactly what happened today...

Today wasn't about my numbering gaffe. When you brought that up I didn't even contest it.

[Phil]

Nature sure has a funky way of showing it. 75 degrees, 30 Dp, and 18% percent humidity under sunny skies with a light breeze. Doesn't get much better.

 

Even the potential cooler weather this weekend looks great. Maybe some fresh snow up above 6000'.

Sounds beautiful.

 

Cloudy and drizzly here until Friday, then the summer furnace turns on over the weekend. We won't see temperatures like this again until September.

[TT-SEA]

Overall, I think Flatiron's call for a warm May was solid. He overran the bag last minute during that stretch of torchy model runs, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen a complete collapse of model guidance like that anyway. It was definitely worse than I thought it would be.

 

Last July, I recall making a comment about -10F anomalies or something after a stretch of very chilly model runs, and got burned as a result. We all have an inner weenie.

 

 

You finally admitted it!  

[Phil]

You finally admitted it!

Lol. Yeah, I don't like being wrong. I'm working on it, though.

[Jesse]

Lol. Yeah, I don't like being wrong. I'm working on it, though.

Something we all could work on here. It would certainly save pages of pointless debate.

 

Although on the bright side this is the busiest the forum has been in a few weeks!

[Phil]

Something we all could work on here. It would certainly save pages of pointless debate.

 

Although on the bright side this is the busiest the forum has been in a few weeks!

Yeah, the debates and clashing-of-opinions sort of define this place. I think it's mostly a good thing, and I enjoy it unless it gets overly redundant and/or negative. Not that I don't have a hand in it sometimes.

[Phil]

Both the 12z EPS and 18z (bias corrected) GEFS have trended towards a big-time jet extension in the long range. The GEFS actually looks nearly identical to the ECMWF weeklies' depiction of the late-June pattern.

 

Not exactly how I thought the pattern would evolve, but in hindsight I can see how it'd happen given the overall upward trend in the NH AAM integral since February, beneath the intraseasonal peaks/troughs.

[TT-SEA]

Both the 12z EPS and 18z (bias corrected) GEFS have trended towards a big-time jet extension in the long range. The GEFS actually looks nearly identical to the ECMWF weeklies' depiction of the late-June pattern.

 

Not exactly how I thought the pattern would evolve, but in hindsight I can see how it'd happen given the overall upward trend in the NH AAM integral since February, beneath the intraseasonal peaks/troughs.

 

Hope it ends up mostly to our north and west... or waves enough to gives us some periods of ridging.  

[TT-SEA]

Here is the EPS 10-15 day mean.    This could be a decent pattern here.