June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This summer blows already.

[TT-SEA]

Its hard to tell when summer really starts here each year until you can look back.  Lots of people joke that its not until July 5th in many years.  

 

So much noise earlier about a short period of ridging in late May collapsing into deep troughing all of June which cluttered the view.   But I think summer really started this year on May 19th.  That is when the faucet turned off and nice weather became the norm rather than the exception. It had rained on 15 out of 18 days in May up until that point.  It has rained on just 7 days since 5/19.  We had a cool, troughy period from 6/8 - 6/17 but its fairly typical to have a week of troughing in June.

[Phil]

The heat index is higher in Portland than DCA. Lucky you Phil.

Now you have a taste of what it's like to be me.

 

A heat index of 98*F is pretty much the norm here, especially in July and August.

[wx_statman]

Well you would know best.   I went through daily records for every summer at Snoqualmie Falls since 1899.

 

1901, 1902, 1904, 1905, 1909, 1914, 1917, and 1919 were all gems in the 1900-1920 period.   And many others that were really nice but a notch below that list.

 

1922 was an incredible summer as well.  

 

That sounds like a rather subjective analysis! 

 

I think if you were to apply a statistical analysis to summers of that era, and compare the data to modern summers, you would see they're not as nice as they seem. There's no reason to believe that summers (especially in the 1900-20 period) were any warmer or drier than today. Long term regional trends say otherwise. 

 

Just out of curiosity, I pulled the WA climate report from July 1901, which is attached. Note that not a single station in western WA hit 90 that month and there was even a "general frost" on the 12th west of the Cascades. 

 

July 1902 was more notable for a record cold trough early in the month, which produced highs in the 50's with heavy rain in Portland as well as 4" of snow at Government Camp (a record for July). 

 

I only picked those two years because they were the first on your list. 

 

You've also left off two of the most notable regionally warm months of that era, July 1906 and August 1915. 

 

Overall, I'm offering this anecdotal evidence in order to show that you can't really generalize about a 30 year stretch of climate by subjectively analyzing one station. You end up accumulating evidence that may be meaningless from a statistical perspective, or in other cases you might ignore evidence that would actually strengthen your case (like the regionally historic warmth in July 1906). 

[wx_statman]

Back to back 100+ a distinct possibility.

 

East winds holding PDX down. I had a feeling that would happen after seeing the 12:53 obs. 

[TT-SEA]

That sounds like a rather subjective analysis! 

 

I think if you were to apply a statistical analysis to summers of that era, and compare the data to modern summers, you would see they're not as nice as they seem. There's no reason to believe that summers (especially in the 1900-20 period) were any warmer or drier than today. Long term regional trends say otherwise. 

 

Just out of curiosity, I pulled the WA climate report from July 1901, which is attached. Note that not a single station in western WA hit 90 that month and there was even a "general frost" on the 12th west of the Cascades. 

 

July 1902 was more notable for a record cold trough early in the month, which produced highs in the 50's with heavy rain in Portland as well as 4" of snow at Government Camp (a record for July). 

 

I only picked those two years because they were the first on your list. 

 

You've also left off two of the most notable regionally warm months of that era, July 1906 and August 1915. 

 

Overall, I'm offering this anecdotal evidence in order to show that you can't really generalize about a 30 year stretch of climate by subjectively analyzing one station. You end up accumulating evidence that may be meaningless from a statistical perspective, or in other cases you might ignore evidence that would actually strengthen your case (like the regionally historic warmth in July 1906). 

 

 

Very subjective indeed!   Just going by daily records... color coded for temperatures and precip amounts.  

 

July of 1901 was really nice here... but not hot.   It rained on only 3 days and the vast majority of the days were in the mid to upper 70s which indicates sunshine locally.   Solidly cloudy days typically have highs in the 60s.   The peak was 87 degrees on 7/28 and 7/29. 

 

I looked for summers that had very few rainy days and consistently warm weather.   The summers in the early part of the 20th century seemed really nice overall.

 

A summer with one hot, dry month did not make the list if the other months were rainy and cool overall.  

[TT-SEA]

I know... I deal with it every year. *sigh*... This is our event: http://fallingwatercommunity.com/Family4th/Welcome.html

 

The models seem to focus the deepest troughing right on the 4th of July.   The 18Z run was no exception.

 

It might turn really nice again right after the 4th though.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062418/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_51.png

[Front Ranger]

East winds holding PDX down. I had a feeling that would happen after seeing the 12:53 obs. 

 

Decent chance of a spike between obs, though.

 

SLE at 100 for back to back hours. At least tying the record from 1926.

[wx_statman]

Very subjective indeed!   Just going by daily records... color coded for temperatures and precip amounts.  

 

July of 1901 was really nice here... but not hot.   It rained on only 3 days and the vast majority of the days were in the mid to upper 70s which indicates sunshine locally.   Solidly cloudy days typically have highs in the 60s.   The peak was 87 degrees on 7/28 and 7/29. 

 

I looked for summers that had very few rainy days and consistently warm weather.   The summers in the early part of the 20th century seemed really nice overall.

 

A summer with one hot, dry month did not make the list if the other months were rainy and cool overall.  

 

It's a different story when you put it that way. However, most of our summers can be characterized by a lack of rain and temps of 75+ west of the Cascades.

 

So...............................

[Front Ranger]

Looking like this may end up as the warmest back to back June days for SEA (and probably many places) since at least 1992.

[wx_statman]

Decent chance of a spike between obs, though.

 

SLE at 100 for back to back hours. At least tying the record from 1926.

 

That's pretty unlikely in sustained winds of 15+ mph. Maybe a spike of 1 degree between obs?

[wx_statman]

Looking like this may end up as the warmest back to back June days for SEA (and probably many places) since at least 1992.

 

Down here, 2006 is king. 

[TT-SEA]

It's a different story when you put it that way. However, most of our summers can be characterized by a lack of rain and temps of 75+ west of the Cascades.

 

So...............................

 

I know.   But there are summers that look great in the daily records and some summers (e.g. 1954, 1964, 1983, 1993 to name just a few) that look miserable in the daily records.  

 

The summers from 1900-1930 generally fit into the nice category more so than some of the later decades.

 

I think the color coded daily records give you a great overview of the nature of the weather... more than monthly records which can be skewed by extreme events.   Same is true in the winter months.  

 

Not scientific.   Not really objective.   But it is helpful and interesting nonetheless.  

[Front Ranger]

Down here, 2006 is king. 

 

Won't even be close for SEA. Just 88 and 90 in 2006.

 

OLM needs to top 90/93 to beat 2006, and that also should happen. They hit 96/95 in 1992...probably won't top that.

 

SEA hit 92/92 in 1992, which is now looking pretty beatable. Next up would be 1982, which hit 94/92. If they manage to top that, you'd have to go all the way back to 1970, which had 94/94. And those are the hottest back to back June days on record.

[Front Ranger]

As far as the 4th goes, it hasn't rained at SEA on 7/4 since 2010. In fact, there's only been measurable precip twice since 1998.

[Jesse]

Glad to see Tim's BS analysis of old school summers finally get called out.

[TT-SEA]

Glad to see Tim's BS analysis of old school summers finally get called out.

Not BS at all. I will send you the Excel file. My criteria is just different than monthly stats. Different way of looking at it... that is all. You would think I would hate July 1901 based on that write up but I actually would have loved it.

[Phil]

The models seem to focus the deepest troughing right on the 4th of July. The 18Z run was no exception.

 

It might turn really nice again right after the 4th though.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062418/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_51.png

360hr GFS ftw.

[TT-SEA]

360hr GFS ftw.

Just toying with him. I feel for him and hoping it improves for the 4th.

[TT-SEA]

As far as the 4th goes, it hasn't rained at SEA on 7/4 since 2010. In fact, there's only been measurable precip twice since 1998.

Sort of misleading for the Seattle area. We have had more nice than not nice simce we moved here though.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

James Bay dropped from 84F down to 68F in the past hour with the wind shift; 85F here still under northerly winds, warmest day of the year.

[wx_statman]

Won't even be close for SEA. Just 88 and 90 in 2006.

 

OLM needs to top 90/93 to beat 2006, and that also should happen. They hit 96/95 in 1992...probably won't top that.

 

SEA hit 92/92 in 1992, which is now looking pretty beatable. Next up would be 1982, which hit 94/92. If they manage to top that, you'd have to go all the way back to 1970, which had 94/94. And those are the hottest back to back June days on record.

 

That was a hell of a heat wave. PDX could have gone even higher than the 98 on 6/2. You had the back-to-back 94's at SEA, 95 at Hoquiam (within 4F of the all time record), downtown Portland hit 100 along with Estacada, and even Silver Creek Falls hit 98 at elevation. Dawson Creek, BC at 56N hit 33.3 C (92F) which is still the monthly record despite occurring on 6/3. 

[Jesse]

Not BS at all. I will send you the Excel file. My criteria is just different than monthly stats. Different way of looking at it... that is all. You would think I would hate July 1901 based on that write up but I actually would have loved it.

Extremely subjective analysis you try to peddle as having any climatological merit. Aka BS.

[Front Ranger]

Sort of misleading for the Seattle area though. We have had more nice than not nice simce we moved here though.

 

How is it misleading? It wasn't raining most areas besides those two years.

[Jesse]

Its hard to tell when summer really starts here each year until you can look back. Lots of people joke that its not until July 5th in many years.

 

So much noise earlier about a short period of ridging in late May collapsing into deep troughing all of June which cluttered the view. But I think summer really started this year on May 19th. That is when the faucet turned off and nice weather became the norm rather than the exception. It had rained on 15 out of 18 days in May up until that point. It has rained on just 7 days since 5/19. We had a cool, troughy period from 6/8 - 6/17 but its fairly typical to have a week of troughing in June.

I don't know about you guys but this screams summer stretching into the end of October. Anyone coming to my Halloween BBQ?

[TT-SEA]

Extremely subjective analysis you try to peddle as having any climatological merit. Aka BS.

I said it was subjective and not scientific. Never claimed otherwise. Monthly stats don't give me the details I am looking for to understand what it was really like. 100% subjective.

 

I would have really liked most summers from 1900-30. More so than later decades.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know about you guys but this screams summer stretching into the end of October. Anyone coming to my Halloween BBQ?

Hell yes!

[wx_statman]

Looks like AST tied their monthly record with 93 degrees today. Also on 6/8/1955. 

 

The downtown Astoria site hit 96 on this date in 1925. That was one of the most impressive June heat waves on record regionally, right up there with 1992 and 2006. In western WA, I believe it was the most impressive June heat wave on record. 

[Front Ranger]

Redding already 105 at noon. 

 

+4 over Monday, when they hit 113. Could make a run at the 117 monthly record from 2006. 

 

Fail. 

 

Looks like they're topping out at 113.

[TT-SEA]

PDX only 98... too much east wind?

[Front Ranger]

Its hard to tell when summer really starts here each year until you can look back.  Lots of people joke that its not until July 5th in many years.  

 

So much noise earlier about a short period of ridging in late May collapsing into deep troughing all of June which cluttered the view.   But I think summer really started this year on May 19th.  That is when the faucet turned off and nice weather became the norm rather than the exception. It had rained on 15 out of 18 days in May up until that point.  It has rained on just 7 days since 5/19.  We had a cool, troughy period from 6/8 - 6/17 but its fairly typical to have a week of troughing in June.

 

This June was pretty much dead-on typical up until this heatwave, which will end up as the only unusual aspect.

[wx_statman]

Fail. 

 

Looks like they're topping out at 113.

 

Not in the cards today!

[wx_statman]

PDX only 98... too much east wind?

 

That was it. Sustained 15+ mph during peak heating hours usually caps things off at PDX. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like AST tied their monthly record with 93 degrees today. Also on 6/8/1955. 

 

The downtown Astoria site hit 96 on this date in 1925. That was one of the most impressive June heat waves on record regionally, right up there with 1992 and 2006. In western WA, I believe it was the most impressive June heat wave on record. 

 

Yeah, probably slightly ahead of 1955 - although one could argue 1955 was more impressive because it occurred almost 3 weeks earlier.

 

The old Priest Pt Park station in Olympia hit 101 in 1925, their June record and hotter than they ever got in August. And UW hit 99, also their June record.

[TT-SEA]

This June was pretty much dead-on typical up until this heatwave, which will end up as the only unusual aspect.

Yep.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, probably slightly ahead of 1955 - although one could argue 1955 was more impressive because it occurred almost 3 weeks earlier.

 

The old Priest Pt Park station in Olympia hit 101 in 1925, their June record and hotter than they ever got in August. And UW hit 99, also their June record.

 

Yeah, I would definitely give 1955 the advantage on a calendar curve. And even without a curve, readings like 100 in downtown Seattle and 101 in Puyallup on 6/9/1955 were top-tier for any part of summer. 

 

However, June 1925 produced some unbelievable numbers in areas affected by downsloping. Skagit Power Plant hit 109 (equal to their all-time record high from July 1941), Startup hit 106 and even Quinault RS reached 101 with downsloping off the Olympics. Anacortes hit 95 right on the water, which was their all-time record high until reaching a ridiculous 101 in July 2009. 

[ShawniganLake]

James Bay dropped from 84F down to 68F in the past hour with the wind shift; 85F here still under northerly winds, warmest day of the year.

Pushing 90 at Shawnigan lake.

[BLI snowman]

East winds holding PDX down. I had a feeling that would happen after seeing the 12:53 obs.

Yeah, a case of too much too soon.

[James Jones]

That was it. Sustained 15+ mph during peak heating hours usually caps things off at PDX. 

Maybe we can get a fluke last minute 100 at PDX ala 6/5/16. The east winds never surfaced that day though.

[Jesse]

Nice to have a heatwave with such dry air. DPs in the upper 30s to low 40s at PDX all afternoon.

 

Combine that with the gusty east winds and it almost felt like a hot day in September. Very tolerable.