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June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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What is average hot? 93? 95? 97?

By 21st century UHI standards? A swampy 90*F is pretty much average during July/August. June is usually decent.

 

I leave town every August for a reason. It's a dangerous month.

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By 21st century UHI standards? A swampy 90*F is pretty much average during July/August. June is usually decent.

 

I leave town every August for a reason.

 

You can still enjoy the water and every indoor place has A/C and its only for 2 months of the year.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You can still enjoy the water and every indoor place has A/C and its only for 2 months of the year.

I work for an arboriculture company, dude. I'm outdoors almost every day.

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By 21st century UHI standards? A swampy 90*F is pretty much average during July/August. June is usually decent.

 

I leave town every August for a reason. It's a dangerous month.

Boiling planet getting boilier by the minute!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I work for an arboriculture company, dude. I'm outdoors almost every day.

 

Yeah... that would suck.   But the window is relatively short.   You have beautiful springs and falls and many times beautiful winters.

 

I was talking to a contractor at our house the other day and he was telling me about working in cold rain for most of the last 8 months.  Not fun.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... that would suck.

 

I was talking to a contractor at our house the other day and he was telling me about working in cold rain for most of the last 8 months. Not fun.

Those are actually my favorite days to work in. Lol.

 

Except for snow. Nothing beats snow,

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Yeah... that would suck.

 

I was talking to a contractor at our house the other day and he was telling me about working in cold rain for most of the last 8 months. Not fun.

I picture you awkwardly staring at him with glazed eyes and intensifying outward signs of arousal as he small talked about PNW climate brutality.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I picture you awkwardly staring at him with glazed eyes and intensifying outward signs of arousal as he small talked about PNW climate brutality.

 

You picture wrong.  I just agreed that it must have sucked.  If you talk weather... people will be complaining.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thats what she said.

Are you making here in time for the ridge? I'm actually curious to see how you'll handle it.

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ECMWF trending south like the GFS.

 

It shows very little rain on Saturday or Sunday up here compared to the 12Z run and previous runs before that... thanks to the southward shift in the ULL.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I may have to go to Quantico for two weeks in August. Not thrilled by the prospect.

Quantico in which state?

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I'm actually heading to Seattle and BC in late July. It's been years since I last visited, so I'm looking forward to it.

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I assume **.

 

You seriously can't say ** here? It's basic anatomy!

I'll be in southern FL, so the heat will probably follow me down there.

 

You're safe.

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Are you making here in time for the ridge? I'm actually curious to see how you'll handle it.

 

Big discussion here about that tonight.   My son might be backing out in favor of a camping trip with friends.  Sort of disappointing.  

 

I can handle it just fine.  I know hot and humid.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Big discussion here about that tonight. My son might be backing out in favor of a camping trip with friends. Sort of disappointing.

 

I can handle it just fine. I know hot and humid. ;)

Probably better for your sanity. Protests, tourists, politicians, and swamp weather is a pretty sucky combo.

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Probably better for your sanity. Protests, tourists, politicians, and swamp weather is a pretty sucky combo.

 

Yeah... I would rather go in October or November.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... I would rather go in October or November.

October is probably our nicest month, actually. I love crisp, frosty mornings that morph into warm, dry afternoons. And that smell of the autumn leaves always brings back the nostalgia of childhood leaf pile jumping.

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I believe the ECMWF has a cool bias with surface temps... after monitoring it for a few weeks now.

 

Just a couple examples... it showed 61 or 62 for SEA on both days last weekend and they came in at 67 on both days.   On the 12Z run this morning it had 76 for SEA today and 12 hours later the actual high was 84.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I believe the ECMWF has a cool bias with surface temps... after monitoring it for a few weeks now.

 

Just a couple examples... it showed 61 or 62 for SEA on both days last weekend and they came in at 67 on both days. On the 12Z run this morning it had 76 for SEA today and 12 hours later the actual high was 84.

Probably just a fluke of the pattern or a micro-climatic thing.

 

It's by far the most accurate model for surface temperatures here, and it actually scores the highest surface temperature accuracy of all the global models overall.

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Probably just a fluke of the pattern or a micro-climatic thing.

 

It's by far the most accurate model for surface temperatures here, and it actually scores the highest surface temperature accuracy of all the global models overall.

Ahhh... good to know. It must be a local fluke. I should start watching how it does east of the mountains here. My guess is that it will do much better. It seems to have gotten noticeably worse during the warm season. Its probably over-estimating marine influence.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ahhh... good to know. It must be a local fluke. I should start watching how it does east of the mountains here. My guess is that it will do much better. It seems to have gotten noticeably worse during the warm season. Its probably over-estimating marine influence.

It also is still failing to account for the third runway.

A forum for the end of the world.

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It also is still failing to account for the third runway.

 

It was even more wrong (too cool) for my location out here surrounded by nothing but forest.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Our big trough is no longer shown to zip through quickly... the 12Z GFS shows that it gets completely cut off early next week.   Previous runs had it over the Midwest on Monday morning... now its shown over OR and NV at that time.  I wonder if that will have an effect on the pattern for next week as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060712/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_21.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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