July 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

In other news, parts of the "Land Down Under" have had their coldest start to Winter in over a Century...cold Antarctic prob has something to do with it.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4564454/Coldest-start-winter-Australia-128-years.html

 

And in a response by a local Ausie reader..

 

 

It was only 2 weeks ago the so called experts forecast a record warm winter for Australia due to above average sea temps in the Pacific. Yes 2 weeks ago. This is exactly why there are skeptics on global warming. Which got the name changed to climate change. Because they are always wrong.

[james1976]

Middle of the night Tstorm.....picked up 1.05"

[Tom]

Nice corridor of heavy rains...looks similar to a track of a Clipper, don't it???

 

[Tom]

I saw a glimpse of the new Euro Seasonal and it blossoms the Alaskan Ridge in November with a trough carved out in the west/central CONUS along with a EC Ridge.  In December, the entire hemispheric pattern amplifies and a big trough forms over the central/eastern CONUS.  Looks like the west coast ridge becomes a dominant feature with a slight SE ridge.  In January, the NW NAMER ridge blossoms as well as the EC ridge.  An ideal pattern for fans of winter weather on our forum!

[Hawkeye]

1.22" here overnight, a nice widespread soaker for the area.  NW through SE Iowa are still very dry, though.

[NEJeremy]

And in a response by a local Ausie reader..

I love the local area only thought process   "Geez in my state it was cold last winter. Pfft to GLOBAL warming." This of course is a larger area than a state, but you get my point.

Just like when we get a record low in the summer or a record high in the winter and people say it's one way or the other in regards to global warming. That specific event individually doesn't mean sh*t. 

Every month this year, the planet has been in the top 3 warmest since record keeping of this type began in 1880, keeping with the same pattern we've seen for decades now(save for 1 or 2 exceptions).

That's all I'm going to say about this as this isn't the thread for that and this topic has been laid out on this forum where everyone's opinions are already known.

[jaster220]

I love the local area only thought process   "Geez in my state it was cold last winter. Pfft to GLOBAL warming." This of course is a larger area than a state, but you get my point.

Just like when we get a record low in the summer or a record high in the winter and people say it's one way or the other in regards to global warming. That specific event individually doesn't mean sh*t. 

Every month this year, the planet has been in the top 3 warmest since record keeping of this type began in 1880, keeping with the same pattern we've seen for decades now(save for 1 or 2 exceptions).

That's all I'm going to say about this as this isn't the thread for that and this topic has been laid out on this forum where everyone's opinions are already known.

 

I'm reading you loud-n-clear on the "micro climate" thought process. The ONLY kick-back to that would be the "coldest start in 128 years" which nobody would expect correlating with a warm winter. Ofc, still a lot of their winter to play out down unda, so the jury's still out on the call for a warm winter.

[Niko]

So far it has been a rather damp day, but no severe weather as of yet.

[Tom]

The Legacy Definition of the Monsoon Season here in the valley is 3+ days with dew points of 55F+ and we officially hit the 3rd day today! It's been an amazing sight to see every night with storms moving in off the mountains into the valley with flashes of lighting and rumbles of thunder. Speaking of thunder, I was awaken by storms that blew up around midnight last night. I certainly love the change in the pattern over here. This time of year can get real beautiful looking up into the sky.

[Niko]

Beautiful day today here in SEMI, although tomorrow the weather might be quite different.

[Minny_Weather]

The Legacy Definition of the Monsoon Season here in the valley is 3+ days with dew points of 55F+ and we officially hit the 3rd day today! It's been an amazing sight to see every night with storms moving in off the mountains into the valley with flashes of lighting and rumbles of thunder. Speaking of thunder, I was awaken by storms that blew up around midnight last night. I certainly love the change in the pattern over here. This time of year can get real beautiful looking up into the sky.

The anvils over the mountains here in California are spectacular. Saw the best overshooting top I've ever seen today.

[Tom]

The anvils over the mountains here in California are spectacular. Saw the best overshooting top I've ever seen today.

I saw some beauties yesterday as well. I'm getting some outflow from storms as we speak. Fun time of year around these parts when the wx is normally quite boring.

[Tom]

My place back home is getting some unexpected strong training storms and a Flash Flood warning was issued.  Up to 2" of rains has fallen is a short period of time.

[Tom]

Reports of over 5" of rain have fallen...insane downpours!  3-5" of rain in this band...

 

 

[james1976]

[jaster220]

Beautiful day today here in SEMI, although tomorrow the weather might be quite different.

 

My place back home is getting some unexpected strong training storms and a Flash Flood warning was issued.  Up to 2" of rains has fallen is a short period of time.

 

From abnormally dry to flood watches. I swear this is the most bi-polar spring into summer I can remember. Seems like normal wx can't exist around here lately

[Tom]

My place is getting rocked again!  Severe T-storm warning with quarter sized hail.  Last night's torrential rains prompted a Flash Flood Emergency for McHenry/Lake counties.  Some parts got 5.5" of rain...seems like July is always a very wet month around these parts.  Last year, we got drenched and it seems to be repeating again this year.  Tons of flooding happening all across the northern burbs.

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab4FileL.png

 

 

[Tom]

After this latest round of morning storms, the totals are rising fast!

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The latest JAMSTEC run came in today and it has flipped colder for the Autumn and warmer for the Winter.  Moreover, it does not have a central-based El Nino anymore and more of a neutral (+) SST anomaly.

 

Wet/Cool Autumn for the central CONUS...warm on both coasts...

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2017.1jul2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2017.1jul2017.gif

 

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1jul2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1jul2017.gif

 

 

Europe still looks very cold and so do parts of Russia.  I wouldn't necessarily sound the alarms for next winter bc when you look at the SST's in the N PAC and equatorial PAC, it looks good to me.

 

SON...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1jul2017.gif

 

DFM...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1jul2017.gif

 

 

2-year ENSO Forecast...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2017.gif

[jaster220]

After this latest round of morning storms, the totals are rising fast!

 

 

 

 

 

Getting hammered in St. Joe right now. Mostly a deluge of wind-driven rain that looks something like a land falling hurricane (in miniature ofc)

[Tom]

This is a cool shot of a plane flying through the sun and a sunspot being captured in the image as well...

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/12jul17/sunspotconjunction_strip.jpg

[Tom]

Outstanding flooding going on in the northern burbs back home...

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Gonna be a hot one next week in LNK. Very strong South winds too to make things worse. Could see our first 100* reading of the season (came close in June at 98* but no cigar).

[Minny_Weather]

The latest JAMSTEC run came in today and it has flipped colder for the Autumn and warmer for the Winter.  Moreover, it does not have a central-based El Nino anymore and more of a neutral (+) SST anomaly.

 

 

 

I wouldn't mind this if it meant a cold Fall with numerous freezes in October and maybe a Thanksgiving with white stuff on the ground. I'm a huge cold and snow lover but if we get a quick start during the Fall then it scales back in December I wouldn't mind as long as we don't have near-record low snowfall again.

[NEJeremy]

Had a heatburst last night at the Omaha airport. It was still 84 degrees at 3am(ridiculous anyway), and then the winds gusted up to 35 mph and at 4am it was 90 degrees!

I've seen even more ridiculous jumps as well as dewpoints that drop way lower than what happened last night, but still kind of cool.

[Tom]

These totals are getting nuts...

 

[WBadgersW]

8"? WOW!

[Tom]

Lightning strike at ORD this morning that hit right next to a docked plane!

 

[Tom]

8"? WOW!

These would be nice snowfall totals...but rain???  Some serious flooding happening.

[WBadgersW]

These would be nice snowfall totals...but rain??? Some serious flooding happening.

Hopefully tonight's storms miss those locations. Even another 1" will be devastating, the Fox river is already predicted to reach record threshold.

[Tom]

Here was another met's constructed analog for ASO period...looks similar to the JASTEC run today...CFSv2 also pretty much with the same idea...

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Hopefully tonight's storms miss those locations. Even another 1" will be devastating, the Fox river is already predicted to reach record threshold.

I wasn't expecting this much rain as all the high rez models were showing S WI getting creamed by the training storms.  Nature throws a curve ball!

[Tom]

The Des Plaines River is forecast to head into Major Flooding...some parts in Lake county will see record heights...

 

 

http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/ldri2_hg.png

 

 

 

http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/guni2_hg.png

 

 

http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/rusi2_hg.png

[Tom]

Back home, my town may set a record also!  D**n!

 

http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/dspi2_hg.png

[gabel23]

These totals are getting nuts...

 

That is impressive! I believe it though, the humidity is oppressive around these parts. I just got a surprise thunderstorm not long ago, ended up picking up .80" in ten minutes!! Couple that with the .40" from last night and we have a lot of happy farmers.....and gardeners

[Tom]

That is impressive! I believe it though, the humidity is oppressive around these parts. I just got a surprise thunderstorm not long ago, ended up picking up .80" in ten minutes!! Couple that with the .40" from last night and we have a lot of happy farmers.....and gardeners

Tons of moisture in the air for these storms to tap into.  Skies are now just starting to clear up which may aid in more storm development later tonight.  I sure hope there isn't a repeat of what happened over the past 12-15 hours.

[Niko]

Lots of rainfall fell today within a short amount of time. The soil is completely saturated. Any more heavy rains that do fall will lead to a lot of flooding.

[Hawkeye]

A solid storm this evening dropped a quick 0.75-1.25" through Cedar Rapids.  My total is 0.83".  It's a nice way to end the action as we head into a dry pattern.

[Tom]

A solid storm this evening dropped a quick 0.75-1.25" through Cedar Rapids. My total is 0.83". It's a nice way to end the action as we head into a dry pattern.

Looks like that cell is heading right towards Chitown. It'll only exasperate the rising rivers.

 

My neighbor took some pics of my place and there was no damage or flooding. Phew!

[Tom]

Just an enormous amount of water fell out of the heavens...