Summer forecast contest: Throwback to 2016

[Front Ranger]

You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A.

 

This contest is kinda boring to me now, to be honest. 

 

As far as I know, I was the only one here who went on record for a warm PNW summer back in May. Now that we've seen a warm June, literally everyone in this thread - yourself included - is going warm overall for the rest of the summer. Obviously, if I were to put down numbers now I'd just be somewhere in the middle of the pack of guesses (and watch, we'd all end up wrong as JAS turns cool).

 

I participated in last summer's contest. But I hadn't made an actual summer outlook in 2016.

[Front Ranger]

You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd.

 

This is false. I've gone on record with my own numbers and forecasts many times on this forum.

 

And it's not "nitpicking" to point out when you're calling a non-troughy month troughy. 

[Front Ranger]

He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward.

 

More false accusations, Phil. This is pure silliness. I never once put anyone on mod preview because of anything like that. 

 

You were put on mod preview multiple times by multiple mods because of various infractions, but we don't need to get into the past.

[Phil]

wxstatman didn't put up any numbers. You seemed fine with that.

He hasn't spent the entire year nitpicking and critiquing others' forecasts. Unlike you.

 

I wouldn't care, otherwise.

[wx_statman]

wxstatman didn't put up any numbers. You seemed fine with that.

 

I put up some numbers. 

[Phil]

This contest is kinda boring to me now, to be honest.

 

As far as I know, I was the only one here who went on record for a warm summer in the PNW back in May. Now that we've seen a warm June, literally everyone in this thread - yourself included - is going warm overall for the rest of the summer. Obviously, if I were to put down numbers now I'd just be somewhere in the middle of the pack of guesses (and watch, we'd all end up wrong as JAS turns cool).

 

I participated in last summer's contest. But I hadn't made an actual summer outlook in 2016.

Lol, are you trying to defend your honor or something?

 

Throw your hat in the ring and I'll forget about this.

[Front Ranger]

My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

 

 

I put up some numbers. 

 

 

Where? These aren't hard numbers, like what Phil is demanding from me. I wrote my takes in the summer forecast thread for each month, as far as what I expected for the PNW.

[Phil]

More false accusations, Phil. This is pure silliness. I never once put anyone on mod preview because of anything like that.

 

You were put on mod preview multiple times by multiple mods because of various infractions, but we don't need to get into the past.

Don't even try. You and I both know why you placed me on mod-preview that month.

[Front Ranger]

Lol, are you trying to defend your honor or something?

 

Throw your hat in the ring and I'll forget about this.

 

I threw my hat in the ring with you in May (upon your request), and now you're trying to forget about that. 

[wx_statman]

 

Where? These aren't hard numbers, like what Phil is demanding from me. I wrote my takes in the summer forecast thread for each month, as far as what I expected for the PNW.

 

100 is a number. 

 

I know, I didn't play by the rules. Forecasting isn't my strength. 

[Phil]

I threw my hat in the ring with you in May (upon your request), and now you're trying to forget about that.

I don't want to forget about anything. You were just as wrong (regarding the pattern) as me. At least these would be tangible numbers, rather than vague descriptions subject to spin.

 

So..once a coward, always a coward?

[DareDuck]

I don't want to forget about anything. You were just as wrong (regarding the pattern) as me. At least these would be tangible numbers, rather than vague descriptions subject to spin.

 

So..once a coward, always a coward?

You're the worst...

[Phil]

You're the worst...

Thanks.

[Kayla]

I'd love to contribute towards this contest but I'm not sure I'd be able to keep up with an ego driven contest.

 

Whatever happened to a friendly and fun summer forecast contest that doesn't have a hidden agenda for one certain individual??

[Phil]

I'd love to contribute towards this contest but I'm not sure I'd be able to keep up with an ego driven contest.

 

Whatever happened to a friendly and fun summer forecast contest that doesn't have a hidden agenda for one certain individual??

This thread was started in good faith, so I honestly apologize for derailing it. Like last summer, it's all in good fun.

 

The issue I'm having with Jared is very long-running, and irrelevant to this thread, so I'll try to keep that drama out of here going forward.

[Kayla]

SEA: 2.1/-0.2/1.0

PDX: 1.8/-0.9/0.7

OLM: 1.1/-1.2/0.2

EUG: 1.9/-0.8/0.5

DCA: 1.1/3.8/1.8

 

BZN (Bozeman) 3.1/-2.3/0.8

 

 

PDX low: 67 

[Phil]

Have all the guesses in excel. Good luck everyone!

[BLI snowman]

PDX: 1.9/7.8/-0.2

SEA: 2.1/8.3/0.3

OLM: 1.1/6.4/-0.4

EUG: 0.7/5.8/-1.7

DCA: 2.2/3.6/4.9

 

PDX's warmest low: 76 on 8/22

 

I win.

[wx_statman]

My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

 

I like the general progression so far. 

[DareDuck]

I win.

What was July for those stations?

[BLI snowman]

What was July for those stations?

Using the F-6 tables with the 30 year normal, it looks like:

 

PDX: 0.8

SEA: 1.5

EUG: 0.7

OLM: 1.0

DCA: 1.9

[DareDuck]

Using the F-6 tables with the 30 year normal, it looks like:

 

PDX: 0.8

SEA: 1.5

EUG: 0.7

OLM: 1.0

DCA: 1.9

Thanks. I was +.3, -.2, -.3, -.1 respectively. Even DCA just +.3. Slightly cool at most stations except PDX. Not bad though.

[Jesse]

Using the F-6 tables with the 30 year normal, it looks like:

 

PDX: 0.8

SEA: 1.5

EUG: 0.7

OLM: 1.0

DCA: 1.9

I think my guesses were closer overall.

[Phil]

I'll post the excel tables today or tomorrow. So far Jesse is winning overall but I haven't finished everyone's calculations yet.

[BLI snowman]

I think my guesses were closer overall.

 

That August forecast (and the region) are going up in flames.

[wx_statman]

My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

 

Overall, I like how the general progression turned out. 

[DareDuck]

Will this one be scored?

[Phil]

Will this one be scored?

Yeah, sorry. My mind has been all over the place lately.

 

I'll score it this week. I already have July and August done.

[DareDuck]

Yeah, sorry. My mind has been all over the place lately.

 

I'll score it this week. I already have July and August done.

No worries didn't expect it scored on Oct. 1st. Just hoping this wasn't another unscored contest.

[Phil]

No worries didn't expect it scored on Oct. 1st. Just hoping this wasn't another unscored contest.

Haha, yeah we've had too many of those. This one will definitely be scored.

[DareDuck]

Haha, yeah we've had too many of those. This one will definitely be scored.

Any guess as to when you'll score this one?

[Phil]

Any guess as to when you'll score this one?

Apologies, my brain has been all over the place lately. I'll try to finish it tonight.

[Phil]

Update: Halfway done. Will definitely finish over the weekend.

[Phil]

Finished the calculations last night. Will post when I get back to my computer tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

???? I didn't have a horse in the race but.... I am going to ask, Phil, where are these results you said were done with and you would post the night of the 16th and have not? You have been posting regularly in other threads since then....

[Phil]

I was just about to post this. I haven't been home in two days so I'm not near my computer at the moment. I'll be home tomorrow evening.