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Summer forecast contest: Throwback to 2016


Phil

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Real numbers to critique!

 

Same cities, format, and timescale as last year's contest.

 

Tie-breaker: Warmest low @ PDX.

 

Deadline: July 1st @ midnight PDT.

 

J/A/S @:

 

SEA: 0.5/1.0/2.5

PDX: -0.5/0.5/1.5

OLM: -0.5/0.0/1.5

EUG: 0.0/1.0/2.0

DCA: 2.5/4.0/3.0

 

PDX Low: 68

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SEA: 1.3,/1.1/2.6

PDX: 1.1/0.9/2.2

OLM: 0.9/0.6/1.8

EUG: 1.0/0.5/1.9

DCA: 2.2/3.0/2.8

 

BDN (Bend) 1.4/1.0/1.8

 

PDX low: 67

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Real numbers to critique!

 

Same cities, format, and timescale as last year's contest.

 

Tie-breaker: Warmest low @ PDX.

 

Deadline: July 1st @ midnight PDT.

 

J/A/S @:

 

SEA: 0.5/1.0/2.5

PDX: -0.5/0.5/1.5

OLM: -0.5/0.0/1.5

EUG: 0.0/1.0/2.0

DCA: 2.5/4.0/3.0

 

PDX Low: 68

 

 

So SEA will be above normal the rest of the summer?   And every month from May - September above normal?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So SEA will be above normal the rest of the summer? And every month from May - September above normal?

I'm factoring in the hotspot. :P

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Why is DC always running way warmer than normal?

Another hotspot. DCA has become SEA on steroids. Especially at night. Plus the pattern this summer is clearly a warm one for this area.

 

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/DCA:9:US

 

5-minute observations below. Even with record-low dewpoints this week, we've struggled to drop below 70*F at night.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDCA

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If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

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If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

 

Interesting.   You should be used to troughs failing to produce below normal temps.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My amateur take on what we'll see for JAS in Portland:

 

1) A slightly below average July with no major heat waves

 

2) A tossup for August, best chance for another 100+ heat wave

 

3) A warmer than average Sept, but not by much

 

I know I'm not playing by the rules of the contest, but this is what I'm thinking. 

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If you think SEA is bad, get a load of this. That huge trough we've had has produced a bunch of warm departures and one or two negative departure days.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

 

Couple of -6 departures isn't all that bad though! Was more surprised to see how dry its been there this month.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Couple of -6 departures isn't all that bad though! Was more surprised to see how dry its been there this month.

Yea 6 days out of 27 above 90 and a 2.4 departure doesn't seem all that outrageous. Still too warm for my liking anyways.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Yea 6 days out of 27 above 90 and a 2.4 departure doesn't seem all that outrageous. Still too warm for my liking anyways.

DCA actually sees fewer 90+ days than most places in June thanks to the cooler water. They often see more in September than in June for the same reason (warmer water).

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Interesting. You should be used to troughs failing to produce below normal temps. :)

Feel free to throw your hat into the ring. :)

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0.6/0.3/2.4

0.8/-0.1/2.2

0.5/-0.7/1.9

1.1/-0.4/2.9

4/3/0

 

65

So average to coolish August and warm September? Any reasoning or just a guess?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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The forecast is for JAS.

 

Boc boc boc

Yep. He leads a charade against my forecast, yet refuses to give numbers of his own. Such a wuss.

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Yep. My thoughts through September are in the summer predictions thread.

Pathetic.

 

Either put numbers up, or don't critique my forecasts again.

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When was the last time a contest was graded?

I'll grade it, don't worry about that.

 

Please put up some numbers.

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June to date. Not exactly a good call by either of us across the lower 48.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/01EE353D-62B3-4E02-A8FB-B15320FFE453_zpstcdwopmn.png

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I prefer to stick with the summer forecasts made before the summer pattern became established.

You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A.

 

You're a coward. From this point forward, I'm going to relentlessly pick apart everything you post. Every slip up, every contradiction, every sleight of hand. Everything. I'm going to make this forum a living nightmare for you until you drop your little act. :)

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You scared, son? What's preventing you from laying numbers down? This is a forecast for J/A/S, not J/J/A.

 

You're a coward. From this point forward, I'm going to relentlessly pick apart everything you post. Every slip up, every contradiction, every sleight of hand. Everything. I'm going to make this forum a living nightmare for you until you drop the act. :)

 

Why? He's not a professional in either climate science or meteorology. He can say whatever he wants. 

 

It's up to you to either engage on scientific grounds, or ignore. Taking the low road won't get you closer to whatever goals you have....

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Why? He's not a professional in either climate science or meteorology. He can say whatever he wants.

 

It's up to you to either engage on scientific grounds, or ignore. Taking the low road won't get you closer to whatever goals you have....

You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd.

 

I honestly wouldn't care if he hadn't spent the last several years perpetually spinning my words in an attempt to discredit my forecasts and ideas (whether they were correct or not), simply to cover his own rampant failures. I haven't returned the favor (attacked his forecasts) yet, but I think that's going to change going forward.

 

He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward.

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You're right, but the circumstances here made me reconsider that line of thinking. Jared loves to nitpick and critique other forecasts, yet refuses to provide his own numbers. It's ridiculous. This is a microcosm of the larger issue(s) people seem to have with him here. Talk to Jesse about the stunts this guy pulls on a regular basis. It's absurd.

 

I honestly wouldn't care if he hadn't spent the last several years perpetually spinning my words in an attempt to discredit my forecasts and ideas (whether they were correct or not), simply to cover his own rampant failures. I haven't returned the favor (attacked his forecasts) yet, but I think that's going to change going forward.

 

He also put me on mod-preview back in January 2013, after his call for an Arctic blast imploded horrifically. He then proceeded to attack me while I couldn't respond. I haven't forgotten that one, but still elected not to return the favor up. Believe me, I had plenty of openings to attack the guy, but refrained from doing so. Again, that will no longer be the case going forward.

 

So you have some history I wasn't aware of. Still...I don't know what you're going to get out of this.  :lol:

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So you have some history I wasn't aware of. Still...I don't know what you're going to get out of this. :lol:

I'll get nothing out of it. If anything, I'll probably cool off and forget about the whole thing in a few weeks.

 

Still, I don't like the guy.

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