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July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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Attached is the composite heights anomaly expected for this July-August. 

 

Just kidding! Bonus points if anyone knows what day this reanalysis is from. Hint: its relatively recent. 

 

This the most extreme ridge that I've seen to anchor itself directly over northwestern OR, in any time of year. 

Heat_Ridge.jpg

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SEA ended up at +2.0 for June.   There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal.  

 

BLI also had +2.0.

 

PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal.  

 

OLM was colder as usual with +1.3

 

Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included):

 

west_june.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians on here!

 

 

Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I could be wrong... but the upcoming pattern this week looks humid to me.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017070112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA ended up at +2.0 for June. There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal.

 

BLI also had +2.0.

 

PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal.

 

OLM was colder as usual with +1.3

 

Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included):

 

west_june.gif

Waiting on yesterday's data, but Shawnigan Lake looks around +1.1F.
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Statman is that late July 2009?

 

Nope. The 522 heights in AK are a clue that this was not during JJA. 

 

I haven't seen a JJA ridge this sexy in all of the reanalyses I've looked. Those tend to be less "squeezed"-looking with the more relaxed thermal gradients. Much broader areas of height increases with the greatest sigmas to the north. July 2009 is a good example:

July2009.jpg

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Attached is the composite heights anomaly expected for this July-August. 

 

Just kidding! Bonus points if anyone knows what day this reanalysis is from. Hint: its relatively recent. 

 

This the most extreme ridge that I've seen to anchor itself directly over northwestern OR, in any time of year. 

Is that May 2008?

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January 2009 was my second guess. :P

 

590dm offshore in mid-January. That one actually had 588-590 heights build into southern BC/AB a few days later, with the 582dm contour extending into the northern part of both provinces...in January. The entire province of Alberta was covered in +3-4 sigmas. 

January2009.jpg

January2009_2.jpg

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Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day.   :)

 

It's taking its sweet time to warm up here today, only near 70F now mid-way through the afternoon and the downtown area near the harbor looks chilly. Hopefully things warm up a little for the events tonight.

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That month must've been quite the buzzkill.

 

It was fairly chilly actually, aside from one pineapple express event. Snowed a number of times as well. Blocking in the winter is always better than no blocking for us, aside from the rare ridgy and warm years like 1960-61 and 1980-81.

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OT, but please, shoot me. :lol:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ACE6C185-E6E4-4763-AD65-0CE19AAF85C1_zps1kvnzthk.png

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It was fairly chilly actually, aside from one pineapple express event. Snowed a number of times as well. Blocking in the winter is always better than no blocking for us, aside from the rare ridgy and warm years like 1960-61 and 1980-81.

Ah, yeah forgot about those inversions.

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What a difference one year makes.

 

Last year at this time: Coherent S/EASM cell, easy poleward ventilation of heat from the tropical Pacific/IPWP:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B6E3F832-BAB8-449E-A903-A25AC27DF900_zpsuyzyh4o6.png

 

This year thru the same period: Scrawny S/EASM Cell, and a notably crippled poleward ventilation of heat from the tropical Pacific/IPWP. The impact(s) of this on the Eurasian side of the Arctic are clear.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4F6F2E9E-D2E1-48D6-9B2D-2E4D5D311BC7_zpstum9fnwv.png

 

Check out that SSTA gradient across the NPAC. It's mostly a "reflection" of the aforementioned, but it does thermodynamically reinforce the gradient. Going to be a fun 6+ months for weather weenies, and a headache for forecasters.

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Our grape vines have really filled in this year.   The first 3 years we cut them down to the ground each fall to make the bases grow stronger and more sturdy... last year they just reached the top of the trellis.   They should be hanging with grapes by September.  

 

19488747_1374795792588625_21540787938579

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Such a complicated year. For example, here's the tropical forcing summary for June of 2014/2015/2009/2004 (warm summers).

 

Note the Pacific-based convection along/east of the dateline in all of those years:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3AE497EB-D6A5-4694-BBD8-98CD2056AD31_zpshjwuk3o7.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C29A4999-ECC9-42A6-A51E-BA543927BFD6_zpskum2makm.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BF8DE45F-A934-4832-BECE-320D3BEC9A8F_zps0rhyml2y.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/14E8C6FE-C0B6-4205-A7F8-D63E624BEAC9_zpse10ltyvv.gif

 

 

Versus some of the cooler summers (2010/2011/2012). Note the opppsite signal present itself, with subsidence centered over the Pacific and convection based west of the dateline:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DAEECC24-4BF6-4D5C-A7B3-7CD93B90BFFC_zpss8zpm5uy.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A2DF2391-5376-462C-91D7-5F9F77EF3A8F_zpssouakmeg.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4876A1F1-4AA3-4EEA-AC3C-621AC12FB18B_zpsckvc5d8w.gif

 

Now, let's look at 2017. By all means, this should favor a -PNA and western troughing. Problem has been the EHEM monsoonal cell orientation and Eurasian wavetrain have reinforced a strong +NAO which has bucked the North American portion of the circulation.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ECB2C88C-B9C0-4651-8F7E-F163D7CD684C_zps2yxdlgec.gif

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So, if we can flip into a -NAO and maintain the Indonesian convection, this convoluted pattern should abort and transition into a 2010/11/12-ish state until sometime in August or September when the low-frequency forcing shifts into the WPAC/dateline area, and more persistent warmth is favored.

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Quick video I took today. Thought it was just a dry outblow boundary passage, but a squall popped up in the unstable air and I was soaked instantly. Had to abort after ~ 30 seconds.

 

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Quoting Justin from a few nights ago.

 

Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather.

You remembered that one... must have made you anxious. :)

 

Today was very nice.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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