BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Follow all the latest news on this record hot summer here for the next 31 days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Attached is the composite heights anomaly expected for this July-August. Just kidding! Bonus points if anyone knows what day this reanalysis is from. Hint: its relatively recent. This the most extreme ridge that I've seen to anchor itself directly over northwestern OR, in any time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Statman is that late July 2009? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Nice marine layer this morning. Seems like we are having no trouble getting marine layer days this summer at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 SEA ended up at +2.0 for June. There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal. BLI also had +2.0. PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal. OLM was colder as usual with +1.3 Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included): Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians on here! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians on here! Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 I could be wrong... but the upcoming pattern this week looks humid to me. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017070112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 I could be wrong... but the upcoming pattern this week looks humid to me. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017070112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.pngLooks normal. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Looks normal. Warm with varying amounts of marine influence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day. Crystal clear but you can feel the marine air. Running 10+ degrees behind yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 SEA ended up at +2.0 for June. There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal. BLI also had +2.0. PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal. OLM was colder as usual with +1.3 Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included): Waiting on yesterday's data, but Shawnigan Lake looks around +1.1F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Statman is that late July 2009? Nope. The 522 heights in AK are a clue that this was not during JJA. I haven't seen a JJA ridge this sexy in all of the reanalyses I've looked. Those tend to be less "squeezed"-looking with the more relaxed thermal gradients. Much broader areas of height increases with the greatest sigmas to the north. July 2009 is a good example: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Attached is the composite heights anomaly expected for this July-August. Just kidding! Bonus points if anyone knows what day this reanalysis is from. Hint: its relatively recent. This the most extreme ridge that I've seen to anchor itself directly over northwestern OR, in any time of year. Is that May 2008? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Yeah the lower height elsewhere should have been a giveaway. October 2003? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Is that May 2008? We got a winner!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Yeah the lower height elsewhere should have been a giveaway. October 2003? Good guess. That one had even more impressive heights offshore (600+ dm) on 10/26. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Yeah the lower height elsewhere should have been a giveaway. October 2003?I was thinking that, but that ridge was even stronger. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 We got a winner!! Nice. Not sure whether I should feel proud of myself, or embarrassed for being such a nerd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 I was thinking that, but that ridge was even stronger. Yeah. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 I was thinking that, but that ridge was even stronger.Yup, just not directly centered over us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 January 2009 was my second guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Wouldn't have thought it was a Niña spring looking at that pattern. Interesting. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 January 2009 was my second guess. That month must've been quite the buzzkill. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 January 2009 was my second guess. 590dm offshore in mid-January. That one actually had 588-590 heights build into southern BC/AB a few days later, with the 582dm contour extending into the northern part of both provinces...in January. The entire province of Alberta was covered in +3-4 sigmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 That month must've been quite the buzzkill.Jan/Feb 2010 was quite beautiful weather wise, but it was quite warm for the time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Looks gorgeous for all of you... the marine layer never made it up that far north leaving you with a perfect day. It's taking its sweet time to warm up here today, only near 70F now mid-way through the afternoon and the downtown area near the harbor looks chilly. Hopefully things warm up a little for the events tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 That month must've been quite the buzzkill. It was fairly chilly actually, aside from one pineapple express event. Snowed a number of times as well. Blocking in the winter is always better than no blocking for us, aside from the rare ridgy and warm years like 1960-61 and 1980-81. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 OT, but please, shoot me. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ACE6C185-E6E4-4763-AD65-0CE19AAF85C1_zps1kvnzthk.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 It was fairly chilly actually, aside from one pineapple express event. Snowed a number of times as well. Blocking in the winter is always better than no blocking for us, aside from the rare ridgy and warm years like 1960-61 and 1980-81.Ah, yeah forgot about those inversions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 No sub-80 days evar again!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 What a difference one year makes. Last year at this time: Coherent S/EASM cell, easy poleward ventilation of heat from the tropical Pacific/IPWP: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B6E3F832-BAB8-449E-A903-A25AC27DF900_zpsuyzyh4o6.png This year thru the same period: Scrawny S/EASM Cell, and a notably crippled poleward ventilation of heat from the tropical Pacific/IPWP. The impact(s) of this on the Eurasian side of the Arctic are clear. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4F6F2E9E-D2E1-48D6-9B2D-2E4D5D311BC7_zpstum9fnwv.png Check out that SSTA gradient across the NPAC. It's mostly a "reflection" of the aforementioned, but it does thermodynamically reinforce the gradient. Going to be a fun 6+ months for weather weenies, and a headache for forecasters. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 Our grape vines have really filled in this year. The first 3 years we cut them down to the ground each fall to make the bases grow stronger and more sturdy... last year they just reached the top of the trellis. They should be hanging with grapes by September. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 Ah, yeah forgot about those inversions. Jan 2009 actually had shots of modified Arctic air both early and late in the month. Both produced accumulating snowfall in Portland. The inversion was really confined to the death ridge period mid-month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 Such a complicated year. For example, here's the tropical forcing summary for June of 2014/2015/2009/2004 (warm summers). Note the Pacific-based convection along/east of the dateline in all of those years: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3AE497EB-D6A5-4694-BBD8-98CD2056AD31_zpshjwuk3o7.gif http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C29A4999-ECC9-42A6-A51E-BA543927BFD6_zpskum2makm.gif http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BF8DE45F-A934-4832-BECE-320D3BEC9A8F_zps0rhyml2y.gif http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/14E8C6FE-C0B6-4205-A7F8-D63E624BEAC9_zpse10ltyvv.gif Versus some of the cooler summers (2010/2011/2012). Note the opppsite signal present itself, with subsidence centered over the Pacific and convection based west of the dateline: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DAEECC24-4BF6-4D5C-A7B3-7CD93B90BFFC_zpss8zpm5uy.gif http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A2DF2391-5376-462C-91D7-5F9F77EF3A8F_zpssouakmeg.gif http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4876A1F1-4AA3-4EEA-AC3C-621AC12FB18B_zpsckvc5d8w.gif Now, let's look at 2017. By all means, this should favor a -PNA and western troughing. Problem has been the EHEM monsoonal cell orientation and Eurasian wavetrain have reinforced a strong +NAO which has bucked the North American portion of the circulation. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ECB2C88C-B9C0-4651-8F7E-F163D7CD684C_zps2yxdlgec.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 So, if we can flip into a -NAO and maintain the Indonesian convection, this convoluted pattern should abort and transition into a 2010/11/12-ish state until sometime in August or September when the low-frequency forcing shifts into the WPAC/dateline area, and more persistent warmth is favored. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 No sub-80 days evar again!!!It's so annoying. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 Quick video I took today. Thought it was just a dry outblow boundary passage, but a squall popped up in the unstable air and I was soaked instantly. Had to abort after ~ 30 seconds. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 It's so annoying. Quoting Justin from a few nights ago. Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2017 Report Share Posted July 2, 2017 Quoting Justin from a few nights ago. Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather.You remembered that one... must have made you anxious. Today was very nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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