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July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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So, if we can flip into a -NAO and maintain the Indonesian convection, this convoluted pattern should abort and transition into a 2010/11/12-ish state until sometime in August or September when the low-frequency forcing shifts into the WPAC/dateline area, and more persistent warmth is favored.

 

So more persistent warmth as a nice change of pace after all of this persistent warmth?

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So more persistent warmth as a nice change of pace after all of this persistent warmth?

Touché.

 

Yeah, I meant persistent warmth driven by the true background system state, rather than an extratropical wavetrain in atrial fibrillation. Though there's something to be said about extratropical instabilities accelerating changes in the tropics, and visa versa.

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Touché.

 

Yeah, I meant persistent warmth driven by the true background system state, rather than an extratropical wavetrain in atrial fibrillation. Though there's something to be said about extratropical instabilities accelerating changes in the tropics, and visa versus.

Well whatever it is I hope you bust horribly. :P

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SEA ended up at +2.0 for June.   There was measureable rain on only 6 out of 30 days... precip ended up just slightly below normal.  

 

BLI also had +2.0.

 

PDX finished with +1.8 and was drier than normal.  

 

OLM was colder as usual with +1.3

 

Basically the entire Western US was warmer than normal for June (this is through 6/29 and will be a little warmer when yesterday is included):

 

west_june.gif

 

I wonder where the WRCC pulls their data to generate these graphics? Here in Southwest MT we had a below average month. In fact, Bozeman airport ended up at -1.6 on the month which is solidly below normal.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Well whatever it is I hope you bust horribly. :P

My busts usually come in bunches, so you might be in luck.

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Yep. Generally, two days ago is really hard to remember for me. Crippling anxiety attacks based on offhand posts always help.

 

 

I remembered something for 6 hours and you called me out. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Quoting Justin from a few nights ago.

 

Today's upper 70s were absolutely perfect. Great kayaking weather.

Hilarious stuff. The misspelling was irreverence on a level reserved for such comic icons like Dorothy Voinovich and the early works of Pierre Jenkinson.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Models show a close call with the ULL in about 8 or 9 days but it just skirts by and the ridge rebounds.     The GFS, GEM, and the parallel GFS all show the same basic evolution for the next 10 days.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Models show a close call with the ULL in about 8 or 9 days but it just skirts by and the ridge rebounds.     The GFS, GEM, and the parallel GFS all show the same basic evolution for the next 10 days.  

 

Thank God. It'd be a tragedy if we didn't have SW flow for a week straight.

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Goldilocks weather for the holiday week this year.   2015 was too hot... and last year was a little too cool.   This year is just right.  

 

19642263_1375048275896710_84548642658219

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Models show a close call with the ULL in about 8 or 9 days but it just skirts by and the ridge rebounds.     The GFS, GEM, and the parallel GFS all show the same basic evolution for the next 10 days.  

 

Those same 3 models are much more aggressive on the 12Z runs with troughing later in the week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wall to wall sunshine today after a low of 47.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hopefully the Euro is just showing its usual mid range bias of digging things too far offshore.

Could be... its been so erratic lately.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How about YYJ? Things are off to a warmer start today in this area, nearly up to 73F, which as warm as it got yesterday. I thought yesterday was going to be the warmest day of the weekend, but there was a bit too much marine air early on.

+0.9F. Quite a bit cooler than last June there.
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Touché.

 

Yeah, I meant persistent warmth driven by the true background system state, rather than an extratropical wavetrain in atrial fibrillation. Though there's something to be said about extratropical instabilities accelerating changes in the tropics, and visa versa.

And don't forget the tropical torque needs to go thru the -Y axis and later reverse thrust so it will align with the +X axis thermodynamics.  :) There's the scientific explanation of why we are having all this warmth transitioning to...............more warmth!

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+0.9F. Quite a bit cooler than last June there.

 

Do you mean compared to June 2015? Last June was warmer than normal but not substantially more so than this June. It's too bad there aren't any long running stations with data closer to town. I've been noticing a lot more days like today where the airport ends up in a persistent cool sea breeze while areas further south end up in a warm bubble. Currently approaching 76F here while the airport is still around 67F.

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Do you mean compared to June 2015? Last June was warmer than normal but not substantially more so than this June. It's too bad there aren't any long running stations with data closer to town. I've been noticing a lot more days like today where the airport ends up in a persistent cool sea breeze while areas further south end up in a warm bubble. Currently approaching 76F here while the airport is still around 67F.

It did end up 1.3F cooler than 2016, obviously 2015 was even much warmer than that.

 

Even a bit of an easterly sea breeze into Shawnigan Lake the last two days. Temp sitting around 73/ 74F.

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And don't forget the tropical torque needs to go thru the -Y axis and later reverse thrust so it will align with the +X axis thermodynamics. :) There's the scientific explanation of why we are having all this warmth transitioning to...............more warmth!

If there's not, then we're all in big trouble.

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