July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just when Phil leaves the East Coast they have some cooler and less humid weather there.

[TT-SEA]

Just when Phil leaves the East Coast they have some cooler and less humid weather there.

75 with a dewpoint of 63 at DCA right now... downright pleasant. Almost perfect actually.

[Jesse]

Looks like they snuck it in between 5-5:30.

Doesn't look like it:

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

Those 5-minute obs can have rounding errors.

[Phil]

75 with a dewpoint of 63 at DCA right now... downright pleasant. Almost perfect actually.

Story of my life. Expect warmth to overperform across western North America until I depart on August 1st.

 

Then, expect a SE ridge to develop and persist through August as I'll be visiting Tampa, FL and Saint Simons Island, GA.

[TT-SEA]

Story of my life. Expect warmth to overperform across western North America until I depart on August 1st.

 

Then, expect a SE ridge to develop and persist through August as I'll be visiting Tampa, FL and Saint Simons Island, GA.

You are heading almost to SE AK... there will be no warmth over-performing there.

[Jesse]

The GFS just can't figure out what to do with that attempted phasing of the four corners high this weekend.

 

Now coming in cooler like the Euro.

[wx_statman]

Oh, yeah we're taking the plane first. Otherwise it'd be something like a 4hr chopper ride.

 

That makes a lot more sense. I checked the air miles between Vancouver and Haida Gwaii (aka Queen Charlottes) and its almost identical to PDX-Sacramento. That's far. You tend to lose a sense of scale in Canada since the provinces are so large.

[Phil]

You are heading almost to SE AK... there will be no warmth over-performing there.

We'll see, haha. I guess I'll get a sense of what your climate is like for 80% of the year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been busy with the kids, traveling, and work. Haven't had time to post much. Very stable boring weather, but overall it has been a pretty enjoyable summer I have to say. Looking like a possible weak Nina now or at least negative neutral. What analogs are you guys feeling for the upcoming winter?

[Phil]

That makes a lot more sense. I checked the air miles between Vancouver and Haida Gwaii (aka Queen Charlottes) and its almost identical to PDX-Sacramento. That's far. You tend to lose a sense of scale in Canada since the provinces are so large.

Wow, yeah that definitely adds some spatial perspective.

[James Jones]

Been busy with the kids, traveling, and work. Haven't had time to post much. Very stable boring weather, but overall it has been a pretty enjoyable summer I have to say. Looking like a possible weak Nina now or at least negative neutral. What analogs are you guys feeling for the upcoming winter?

 

Id say 1861-62 and 1952-53 are the top analog's

[TT-SEA]

We'll see, haha. I guess I'll get a sense of what your climate is like for 80% of the year.

 

Maybe 90%.   

[TT-SEA]

Been busy with the kids, traveling, and work. Haven't had time to post much. Very stable boring weather, but overall it has been a pretty enjoyable summer I have to say. Looking like a possible weak Nina now or at least negative neutral. What analogs are you guys feeling for the upcoming winter?

 

Right now... my top analogs are definitely:

 

1949-50

2002-03

1968-69

1976-77

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Three big fires around here. Rock Creek, valley 20 miles east of here and only local traffic is allowed there. A near superior(between Missoula and Lookout pass) which is threatening some homes. A fire near Lolo peak which has been active the longest and consistently sending a smoke plume over Lolo but sometimes the smoke clouds up the sky even here in Missoula from it. Unfortunately it will probably get worse as summer goes on and the forecasted Monsoon moisture didn't materialize this week. Maybe a few stray thunderstorms tomorrow or thursday at best

Yeah, the Rock Creek was the one we were seeing the most smoke from.  We noticed the Superior fire on our way home.  There was a couple of helicopter crews doing their morning briefing when we drove by an airport right next to I-90.  There were 2 choppers and about 20 or so people in a big huddle.

 

Hopefully it does not get too much worse for you guys in MT, and hopefully if those T-storms form they bring plenty of moisture.  My wife's family has a bunch of cattle on forest land around Phillipsburg, and off to the SW on the Skalkaho towards the Gem Mountain sapphire mines.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Fortunately so far here in Bozeman area we've escaped the fires and smoke. Had a couple of days Sunday/Monday of haze/smoke from the fires to the west but thats been about it. I think our wettish June really knocked things down here east of the divide. Today's much cooler and wetter conditions have aided the situation even more and should continue to over the next few days.

 

What did you guys think of Bozeman and MSU??

He loved MSU, but was slightly underwhelmed by Bozeman.  We also checked out Missoula and UM and Missoula had a very Bellingham feel to it which really appealed to him  Also, he has really gotten into hiking and playing in the water, which is readily available from town in Missoula.

 

Bozeman on the other hand requires a bit of a trek (which you of course know), and that can be a challenge without a car.

 

He said he has a lot of thinking to do, and his first reaction is that he likes Missoula a lot more than Bozeman as far as the towns.  But on the other hand he feels like he would get a far better education at MSU (even though they really don't have his specific area of interest....Environmental Chemistry).   They told us there is a Chem Professor celebrating his 50th year teaching (I forgot his name), and Chemistry majors were the largest number of Goldwater Scholarship recipients at MSU, which is pretty impressive.

 

I would like to see him at MSU, even though it would be more of a trek for us.   I thought the campus was a lot nicer, the Chemistry building looked very new and modern.  We ate lunch at the cafeteria in Miller hall, and it was AMAZING!! I could not believe the variety they offered, and I understand the new cafeteria they are building is going to be the same type of set up.

 

On the other hand, in Missoula they talked about how the city buses allow you to bring on an inner tube, and that a lot of people float the river home in the summer.  

 

I think it will boil down to which school gives him the best financial aide package, and if he can figure out a way to get some sort of "environmental" emphasis on a Chemistry major at MSU.

[TT-SEA]

Some low clouds piling up and enveloping West Seattle this morning...

 

 

 

[Kayla]

Doesn't look like it:

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

Those 5-minute obs can have rounding errors.

 

Thought the multiple reports of 90 would have been enough to tip the rounding error but I guess not!

[Jesse]

Been busy with the kids, traveling, and work. Haven't had time to post much. Very stable boring weather, but overall it has been a pretty enjoyable summer I have to say. Looking like a possible weak Nina now or at least negative neutral. What analogs are you guys feeling for the upcoming winter?

A bunch of really good and bad years that are opposites, lol!

[Phil]

Classic -ENSO SSTA signature is starting to show up across the Pacific in response to the -PNA/-AAM circulation. Yet the IO stubbornly refuses to leave its +IOD mode. A Niño is essentially off the table at this point, in my opinion, but the +IOD will likely prevent a coherent Niña.

 

[TT-SEA]

Classic -ENSO SSTA signature is starting to show up across the Pacific in response to the -PNA/-AAM circulation. Yet the IO stubbornly refuses to leave its +IOD mode. A Niño is essentially off the table at this point, in my opinion, but the +IOD will likely prevent a coherent Niña.

 

 

 

Neutral is perfect.  

[Front Ranger]

Thought the multiple reports of 90 would have been enough to tip the rounding error but I guess not!

 

PDX definitely underpeformed yesterday, considering SEA hit 87, OLM 89, HIO 91, TTD 91, SLE 93...

[Phil]

Of course a -ENSO/-QBO winter (west-based/modoki -ENSO in particular) can easily morph into a perpetual +EPO/Pacific hose job, but also opens a conduit to a -NAM/-NAO, especially when the solar wind forcing is weak.

[TT-SEA]

Of course a -ENSO/-QBO winter (west-based/modoki -ENSO in particular) can easily morph into a perpetual +EPO/Pacific hose job, but also opens a conduit to a -NAM/-NAO, especially when the solar wind forcing is weak.

 

I would strongly bet against a very wet winter here given the last 2 winters were the wettest in history.  

 

Like I said to bet against a cool, troughy, wet summer after our record setting, persistently wet spring... sometimes its best to lean on local history as a guide.   

[Phil]

The colder/higher equatorial tropopause and reduced static stability aggregate alters the low frequency rossby train and waveguide such that it reduces the chances of big anticyclonic breakers/-EPO in the long run across DJF, however, a stronger BDC, weaker PV, and cooler globe in -QBO winters can possibly make up for the more hostile NPAC.

 

The biggest challenge in -QBO/-ENSO is getting the vodka cold onto our side of the globe, for the most part.

[Kayla]

He loved MSU, but was slightly underwhelmed by Bozeman.  We also checked out Missoula and UM and Missoula had a very Bellingham feel to it which really appealed to him  Also, he has really gotten into hiking and playing in the water, which is readily available from town in Missoula.

 

Bozeman on the other hand requires a bit of a trek (which you of course know), and that can be a challenge without a car.

 

He said he has a lot of thinking to do, and his first reaction is that he likes Missoula a lot more than Bozeman as far as the towns.  But on the other hand he feels like he would get a far better education at MSU (even though they really don't have his specific area of interest....Environmental Chemistry).   They told us there is a Chem Professor celebrating his 50th year teaching (I forgot his name), and Chemistry majors were the largest number of Goldwater Scholarship recipients at MSU, which is pretty impressive.

 

I would like to see him at MSU, even though it would be more of a trek for us.   I thought the campus was a lot nicer, the Chemistry building looked very new and modern.  We ate lunch at the cafeteria in Miller hall, and it was AMAZING!! I could not believe the variety they offered, and I understand the new cafeteria they are building is going to be the same type of set up.

 

On the other hand, in Missoula they talked about how the city buses allow you to bring on an inner tube, and that a lot of people float the river home in the summer.  

 

I think it will boil down to which school gives him the best financial aide package, and if he can figure out a way to get some sort of "environmental" emphasis on a Chemistry major at MSU.

 

Yeah both cities have a lot to offer depending on what your interests are. Missoula definitely has more of a "College Town" feel to it with UM more integrated into the city. Whereas in Bozeman, MSU isn't quite as much as the focal point. Graduates at MSU tend to put down roots after graduation versus UM they seem to move on.

 

Bozeman does have thousands of miles of trails as well with amazing hikes very close to downtown and MSU while also having a free bus service (Streamline) and you can float down the Madison here! Something for him to keep in mind, summer fun doesn't last all that long here in either city. If your son enjoys snow sports, I think Bozeman wins out hands down. One ski resort (Bridger) within 20 minutes with free bus service everyday (Streamline) and another (Big Sky, largest ski resort in the states) just 45 minutes away.

 

I've attached a few pics from just a couple of hikes that we've done over the last few weeks; all within a 20 minute drive from MSU.

 

Great to hear that he enjoyed the campus! It really is a great looking campus and is only growing. Whatever he decides I don't think he can go wrong but... Go Cats!! 

[Phil]

I would strongly bet against a very wet winter here given the last 2 winters were the wettest in history.

 

Like I said to bet against a cool, troughy, wet summer after our record setting, persistently wet spring... sometimes its best to lean on local history as a guide.

Same could be said about running five consecutive warmer than average J/J/A's.

 

I'm not making any forecasts yet, however if we do indeed enter into a more coherent -ENSO circulation, under a -QBO, it is both statistically and dynamically easier to run a +EPO firehose.

 

If solar wind forcing is weak, that can alter things enough to avoid such an outcome, but it depends on the nature of the wavetrain feedbacks in October and November. The winter of 2007/08 is a classic example of ENSO/QBO feedback overwhelming the solar component.

[Front Ranger]

Story of my life. Expect warmth to overperform across western North America until I depart on August 1st.

 

That's been happening all summer anyway.

 

[TT-SEA]

Same could be said about running five consecutive warmer than average J/J/A's.

 

I'm not making any forecasts yet, however if we do indeed enter into a more coherent -ENSO circulation, under a -QBO, it is both statistically and dynamically easier to run a +EPO firehose.

 

If solar wind forcing is weak, that can alter things enough to avoid such an outcome, but it depends on the nature of the wavetrain feedbacks in October and November. The winter of 2007/08 is a classic example of ENSO/QBO feedback overwhelming the solar component.

 

There might be some firehose periods... but I would lean hard towards a much drier winter overall.   

[Phil]

Upper 50s and sunny this morning in Vancouver. Hard to believe this is late July..incredible.

 

Waiting in the Airport for the plane. Winds look pretty fun out on the waters NW of Hippa. Forecast for Friday night and Saturday calls for 25-35kts sustained with rain squalls. I'm looking forward to it.

[ShawniganLake]

Upper 50s and sunny this morning in Vancouver. Hard to believe this is late July..incredible.

 

Waiting in the Airport for the plane. Winds look pretty fun out on the waters NW of Hippa. Forecast for Friday night and Saturday calls for 25-35kts sustained with rain squalls. I'm looking forward to it.

You think the fishing boats will even go out in that. I seriously doubt it. They will be looking for a protected area out of the wind.

[Phil]

That's been happening all summer anyway.

If this is a warm Pac NW summer, then I'm definitely looking into spending more time here during the warm season. It's only been a few days, but I'm already in love with this place.

 

I guess I haven't experienced the winter climate here, though.

[TT-SEA]

If this is a warm Pac NW summer, then I'm definitely looking into spending more time here during the warm season. It's only been a few days, but I'm already in love with this place.

 

I guess I haven't experienced the winter climate here, though.

 

Did anyone imply that even our warm summers are comparable to the suffocating heat and humidity in other parts of the country?

 

We generally have the best summer weather in the country... we say that for a reason.  

 

You are about to experience some of our typical winter weather later today on Hippa Island!  

[Phil]

You think the fishing boats will even go out in that. I seriously doubt it. They will be looking for a protected area out of the wind.

Limit is sustained winds at 40kts. Though we could hang out longer at our own risk.

[Phil]

There might be some firehose periods... but I would lean hard towards a much drier winter overall.

Could very well be. Again, I'm not making a forecast here. It's not a guarantee that the low frequency -ENSO circulation sustains into winter.

[ShawniganLake]

Limit is sustained winds at 40kts. Though we could hang out longer at our own risk.

That seems crazy. Fishing in 12ft waves. Good luck.

 

At your own risk? You're not even going out with a Guide.

[TT-SEA]

Could very well be. Again, I'm not making a forecast here. It's not a guarantee that the low frequency -ENSO circulation sustains into winter.

 

You picked up on the 'firehose' event in June... it did happen as you predicted but it certainly did not define the month as being wet and cool.  

[TT-SEA]

That seems crazy. Fishing in 12ft waves. Good luck.

 

At your own risk? You're not even going out with a Guide.

 

Sounds absolutely miserable and very risky.  

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds absolutely miserable and very risky.

50mph sustained makes for a rough ride on BC ferries. I can't imagine that being fishable weather. I guess that resort has some crazy good fishing boats.

[Phil]

50mph sustained makes for a rough ride on BC ferries. I can't imagine that being fishable weather. I guess that resort has some crazy good fishing boats.

I've fished dozens of times off New England in fairly similar conditions. It's all about the boat.

[ShawniganLake]

I've fished dozens of times off New England in fairly similar conditions. It's all about the boat.

I'd still recommend a guide. They know where the fish are.