July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[stuffradio]

The ECMWF HRES is spitting out 105F for Abbotsford on Thursday.

[wx_statman]

ECMWF peaks at 110 on Thursday for PDX.

 

#runofthemill

 

Jesus, maybe the GFS hasn't gone off the rails. That, or both the EURO and GFS are having problems with the upcoming pattern. 

[wx_statman]

The ECMWF HRES is spitting out 105F for Abbotsford on Thursday.

 

I remember when the ECMWF HRES was spitting out 20" snowfall totals for Portland in early February. Something like 2 days from the event. We didn't even get an inch...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ECMWF HRES is spitting out 105F for Abbotsford on Thursday.

 

Let's hope we don't have another 2015-07-06 on our hands, that was awful.

[stuffradio]

I remember when the ECMWF HRES was spitting out 20" snowfall totals for Portland in early February. Something like 2 days from the event. We didn't even get an inch...

The ECMWF ensemble is more around 98F and the ECMWF operational is about the same as the HRES.

[Jesse]

I'm going to be so disappointed if this event doesn't crack 110 at PDX.

[wx_statman]

Let's hope we don't have another 2015-07-06 on our hands, that was awful.

 

What happened on that date in your area? 

[Dave]

In the NWS Portland AFD, they mentioned that nighttime temps may struggle to fall below 80 degrees between 2000 - 4000 feet in the Cascades.  That would be quite the anomaly if it verifies.

[Kayla]

I'm wondering if the GFS has gone completely off the rails. Even the MRF-MOS (based on the GFS) is spitting out 109-108 for EUG and 108-108 for SLE, although it's only showing 102-104 for PDX. 

 

You would think that but... The 12z ECMWF operational is at 110 and the EPS is at 107. I think PDX has a legit shot at breaking 107. 

 

18z GFS cooled all the way down to 112 on Thursday! 

[Geos]

I have an entirely new perspective on heatwaves now. Part of me is excited for the extreme, but the other part is like, ok my 7 month old is going to be miserable when it's grossly hot and he can't sleep. . .

 

During the last heat wave I slept outside in the backyard for a couple nights. Was quite a bit better than in the house.

[BLI snowman]

Thursday smells like an underachiever.

[wx_statman]

You would think that but... The 12z ECMWF operational is at 110 and the EPS is at 107. I think PDX has a legit shot at breaking 107. 

 

18z GFS cooled all the way down to 112 on Thursday! 

 

KGW has jumped on board with 105 & 106 for Wed-Thu. 

[Kayla]

KGW has jumped on board with 105 & 106 for Wed-Thu. 

 

Same forecast over at the NWS as well. Definitely conservative at this point which makes sense. Yet at the same time seeing 29-30c @850mb with light offshore flow shouldn't be discounted either. 

[wx_statman]

Thursday smells like an underachiever.

 

NWS talking about 30C @ 850mb on Thursday. I think anything below 106 at this point would be an underachievement. 

[wx_statman]

Same forecast over at the NWS as well. Definitely conservative at this point which makes sense. Yet at the same time seeing 29-30c @850mb and light offshore flow shouldn't be discounted either. 

 

I agree about being conservative. Never wise to forecast all-time records 5 days out, even if your best numerical guidance say so. 

[Kayla]

Thursday smells like an underachiever.

 

I think we all know it isn't going to be 113 on Thursday. If by underachieving you mean 108 then you might be onto something... ​ 

[Deweydog]

For what it's worth, the 1981 ridge was more impressive in all aspects compared to what is currently advertised. 850's with that maxed out around 27c with that if memory serves.

[Geos]

Over 100 predicted on the GFS for Olympia.

[wx_statman]

Another thing in favor of this coming heat wave is the bone dry conditions. With no rain in 6 weeks and minimal soil moisture, we should be able to maximize the daytime heating. A similar situation allowed 8/28/1967 to reach 102 at PDX and 105 downtown, as this occurred more than two months after the last measurable rainfall. Heading into the July 2009 heat wave, PDX was only two weeks removed from a 0.33" rainfall. That might be all the difference needed to turn a 106 into 107. 

[Deweydog]

Another thing in favor of this coming heat wave is the bone dry conditions. With no rain in 6 weeks and minimal soil moisture, we should be able to maximize the daytime heating. A similar situation allowed 8/28/1967 to reach 102 at PDX and 105 downtown, as this occurred more than two months after the last measurable rainfall. Heading into the July 2009 heat wave, PDX was only two weeks removed from a 0.33" rainfall. That might be all the difference needed to turn a 106 into 107.

I was pondering this today as well.

[wx_statman]

For what it's worth, the 1981 ridge was more impressive in all aspects compared to what is currently advertised. 850's with that maxed out around 27c with that if memory serves.

 

25.8C was the maximum sounding at SLE in August 1981, although 850's could have maxed out between the soundings. July 2006 had that number beat with 27.0C on the afternoon of the 22nd. Too bad we couldn't keep a clear sky that day. 

[wx_statman]

I was pondering this today as well.

 

Praying for #ClearSkies

[Deweydog]

25.8C was the maximum sounding at SLE in August 1981, although 850's could have maxed out between the soundings. July 2006 had that number beat with 27.0C on the afternoon of the 22nd. Too bad we couldn't keep a clear sky that day.

That 2006 ridge was a beast. I think we just missed the mark with that one with the axis being a bit too far east. Too much anticyclonic flow.

[BLI snowman]

NWS talking about 30C @ 850mb on Thursday. I think anything below 106 at this point would be an underachievement.

Just like in the winter it's always better to err on the side of climo.

[Deweydog]

Praying for #ClearSkies

Save the high cloud shocker for the 21st.

[wx_statman]

That 2006 ridge was a beast. I think we just missed the mark with that one with the axis being a bit too far east. Too much anticyclonic flow.

 

It was. I remember Fresno NWS describing the heat wave as a 1-in-200 year event down there, after KFAT tied or broke its all-time record high on 5 straight days. 

[wx_statman]

Save the high cloud shocker for the 21st.

 

Maybe we'll get both. Shoot for the stars...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

What happened on that date in your area? 

 

It was predicted to be clear/sunny with potentially record setting heat and strong outflow, but a major forest fire in the Coastal Range went nuts and threw an incredible amount of thick smoke into the outflow. It was by far the worst smoke event I've ever experienced and was downright nasty with bits of ash falling for several days.

 

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/nasa-metro-vancouver-fire-smoke-satellite-954x500.jpg

 

This is what it looked like on the island underneath:

 

http://i.imgur.com/NF8UiE3.jpg

[wx_statman]

It was predicted to be clear/sunny with potentially record setting heat and strong outflow, but a major forest fire in the Coastal Range went nuts and threw an incredible amount of thick smoke into the outflow. It was by far the worst smoke event I've ever experienced and was downright nasty with bits of ash falling for several days.

 

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/nasa-metro-vancouver-fire-smoke-satellite-954x500.jpg

 

This is what it looked like on the island underneath:

 

http://i.imgur.com/NF8UiE3.jpg

 

Wow, you were really in the bullseye for that. 

[ShawniganLake]

I Drove thru Clinton BC this afternoon, less than 1 hr later it was evacuated from an approaching forest fire.

[ShawniganLake]

It was predicted to be clear/sunny with potentially record setting heat and strong outflow, but a major forest fire in the Coastal Range went nuts and threw an incredible amount of thick smoke into the outflow. It was by far the worst smoke event I've ever experienced and was downright nasty with bits of ash falling for several days.

 

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/nasa-metro-vancouver-fire-smoke-satellite-954x500.jpg

 

This is what it looked like on the island underneath:

 

http://i.imgur.com/NF8UiE3.jpg

Ash falling here in the Cariboo this evening. I can't post pictures, unfortunately, the network up here is pretty poor.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ash falling here in the Cariboo this evening. I can't post pictures, unfortunately, the network up here is pretty poor.

 

It's still pretty bad out there? The satellite imagery looks better for that region as a whole but there are still a lot of fires burning.

 

A surprisingly warm end to the day here in Victoria today. It hovered between 70~72F until mid afternoon then shot up to 80F with a more westerly wind and has been warm right through the evening. Yet YYJ may not have even made it to 70F today.

[Jesse]

I Drove thru Clinton BC this afternoon, less than 1 hr later it was evacuated from an approaching forest fire.

Our goldilocks summer continues.

[TT-SEA]

Our goldilocks summer continues.

 

The upcoming heat wave will not fit that description... but the weather has been near perfect for all of July and fires on the other side of the mountains are to be expected at this time of year.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phil is missing out on a temperature of 69 F with a dewpoint of 54 F at DCA. The high was only 77 F there today.

 

Fullerton, CA is 71 F with a dewpoint of 64 F in another warm marine layer.

[TT-SEA]

Phil is missing out on a temperature of 69 F with a dewpoint of 54 F at DCA. The high was only 77 F there today.

 

Fullerton, CA is 71 F with a dewpoint of 64 F in another warm marine layer.

 

Wow... that is essentially the same as Seattle right now.   And Seattle had a high of 81 today which was 4 degrees warmer than DC.  

[Dave]

The crickets must know something is about to go down.  Haven't heard a single one until tonight.  Now there are several doing their thing.  Heat wave confirmed.

[Jesse]

The upcoming heat wave will not fit that description... but the weather has been near perfect for all of July and fires on the other side of the mountains are to be expected at this time of year.

True. Many of those towns are evacuated several times a summer on average.

[TT-SEA]

True. Many of those towns are evacuated several times a summer on average.

 

No... but there will be fires and there be people evacuated on the dry side of the mountains in the summer.   Its not like its been catastrophic... it was still very wet last month.    And will be very wet again in a couple months.  

[wx_statman]

MRF-MOS has 112 for Eugene on Wednesday based on the 00Z GFS. If it wasn't a 1980's algorithm driving the guidance I would give it more thought, but that's still pretty insane. I don't think I've seen numbers like that for the Willamette Valley on any numerical guidance before. PDX is up to 107 for Thursday, from 104 on the 12Z.