July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

Hippa Island might also be the most beautiful place I've ever visited, with the exception of Hawaii and SE Georgia.

 

Temperatures and weather conditions (by JJA standards) were also perfect. Mid-50s highs and breezy w/ frequent rain showers and some sunshine in-between is my ideal summer. I'm not sure how I'd handle a winter there, though. Might be a bit too dark for my taste.

 

If wet and cold is your ideal summer... then who cares about winter?  Obviously its wet and cold there for almost the entire year.   What you described is a very common late fall / winter / early spring day here.   Thankfully we have some meaningful seasonal variety.  

[TT-SEA]

A perfect 80 degrees and sunny here.    Ideal summer day to me.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW...

 

[epiceast]

FWIW...

 

Are you cheering for a 110?!

[TT-SEA]

Are you cheering for a 110?!

 

No... I am not.   

 

I am cheering for low 80s.   Just posting the guidance related to this heat event like we do for cold events.

[Dave]

FWIW...

 

18z GFS says 111 for PDX on Thursday and a chilly 105 down here in Eugene.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A perfect 80 degrees and sunny here.    Ideal summer day to me.  

 

Warmest day of the month so far up here as far as the daily mean goes, mostly on account of a "warm" low. There have been warmer daytime highs and overnight lows but the other "warm" lows tended to be followed by relatively cool days. Tomorrow may go warmer but I'll bet tonight cools off a fair amount. Next week will be a different story, the GFS has some 70F+ lows progged, that would be warmer than any of the mean daily temperatures we've seen this month.

[IbrChris]

For what it's worth, the 1981 ridge was more impressive in all aspects compared to what is currently advertised. 850's with that maxed out around 27c with that if memory serves.

Nice, you mind grabbing some reanalysis maps for the Aug 1981 event? It's looking like 28c/29c assuming the Euro Op/ensemble mean prevails.

[IbrChris]

25.8C was the maximum sounding at SLE in August 1981, although 850's could have maxed out between the soundings. July 2006 had that number beat with 27.0C on the afternoon of the 22nd. Too bad we couldn't keep a clear sky that day.

Yeah, I don't expect any conv debris will spoil the fun this time. Personally I'm thinking PDX sees 108 on Thu and perhaps an isolated 110 shows up at one of the other ASOS, best chance probably in lee of Coast Range (HIO) or mid-valley (MMV, SLE).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I don't expect any conv debris will spoil the fun this time. Personally I'm thinking PDX sees 108 on Thu and perhaps an isolated 110 shows up at one of the other ASOS, best chance probably in lee of Coast Range (HIO) or mid-valley (MMV, SLE).

 

I've noticed an interesting pattern. You generally take guidance at face value with heatwaves and discount it or go on the warm side with cold snaps. Usually serves you well on the cold calls.

[ShawniganLake]

Took a couple of photos today looking north from Cache Creek towards the Elephant Hill fire near Clinton BC. Several big pyrocumulus smoke columns went up this afternoon from the 190 000 acre fire.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, I don't expect any conv debris will spoil the fun this time. Personally I'm thinking PDX sees 108 on Thu and perhaps an isolated 110 shows up at one of the other ASOS, best chance probably in lee of Coast Range (HIO) or mid-valley (MMV, SLE).

 

Well, if a credible 110 pops up on the valley floor I believe it will be the first on record. Bull Run Headworks hit 110 on 7/13/1935 but that's in the foothills. I believe the 109 at Forest Grove on 7/19/1956 is the valley floor benchmark. I also remember 111 at Mayfield Power Plant in July 2009 but I can't find evidence of that reading anywhere now.

[wx_statman]

Well, if a credible 110 pops up on the valley floor I believe it will be the first on record. Bull Run Headworks hit 110 on 7/13/1935 but that's in the foothills. I believe the 109 at Forest Grove on 7/19/1956 is the valley floor benchmark. I also remember 111 at Mayfield Power Plant in July 2009 but I can't find evidence of that reading anywhere now.

 

Ok, I knew my memory wasn't playing tricks on me. I tracked down that 111 degree reading in the original COOP form for July 2009. For some reason, that reading never made it into the monthly or annual climate summaries for WA state that year, and to compound matters it's been scrubbed from the daily summary stats @ the WRCC (along with many other readings that have been spuriously QC'd out).

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F479D301-A0B6-48FB-954B-D59A13A00D0A-wxc3.pdf

 

Reading actually occurred on 7/29 but was recorded under 7/30 due to the COOP reporting lag.

[Jesse]

Just your run of the mill 10 day stretch of 90+ weather on the 00z Euro.

[Tyler Mode]

Could the smoke from the BC fires act to limit highs and warm up lows?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+12

[James Jones]

6Z following suit with the Euro, extending the heatwave. Shows 4 straight 100+ days with 6 being possible.

[TT-SEA]

 

Could the smoke from the BC fires act to limit highs and warm up lows?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km+12

 

 

Seems pretty likely that we will soon be getting into a smoky situation on this side of the mountains with the onshore flow cutting off.   It does not take much to limit heating.  

[Jesse]

6Z following suit with the Euro, extending the heatwave. Shows 4 straight 100+ days with 6 being possible.

Lately each consecutive run has been extending the heat another day or two it seems.

[Jesse]

 

 

Could the smoke from the BC fires act to limit highs and warm up lows?

 

 

Strangely smoke has no affect on lows. Something about its properties only affects heating, not radiational cooling.

[James Jones]

Lately each consecutive run has been extending the heat another day or two it seems.

 

It would give us a great start to the warmest August on record. Cuz you know, 2014 was a long time ago at this point and it's only our fourth consecutive blowtorch August.

[BLI snowman]

12z a little less ridiculous.

[Jesse]

12z a little less ridiculous.

The long duration is worse. I'd much prefer a relatively short, extreme event.

[Jesse]

Pretty amazing the first 1/3 of August -or longer- could be dominated by sprawling heat. Really would put a damper on hiking and camping plans I had before starting University on the 22nd.

[BLI snowman]

The long duration is worse. I'd much prefer a relatively short, extreme event.

 

The 168+ hour stuff should be taken with a grain of salt at this point, the models are still throwing a number of ideas out there. The stuff coming into the realistic view looks dampened down to a not quite all time historic level. And Wednesday is actually looking like it could be the hottest day.

[ShawniganLake]

Seems pretty likely that we will soon be getting into a smoky situation on this side of the mountains with the onshore flow cutting off. It does not take much to limit heating.

Smoke forecasts do bring the smoke to the west side as we move towards mid week.

Latest estimates for area burned in BC is 1,050,000 acres

[Jesse]

Smoke forecasts do bring the smoke to the west side as we move towards mid week.

Latest estimates for area burned in BC is 1,050,000 acres

D**n. A lot of territory. That's like half of Yellowstone.

[Front Ranger]

Looking more and more similar to July 2009 heatwave. 

[Jesse]

A smal group of GFS ensemble members now depicting a shorter event, lasting only through Saturday. There were no such ensembles the last several runs. Would be nice to see that trend continued.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a little cooler for PDX:

 

Wed: 104

Thurs: 108

Fri: 100

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z ECMWF is a little cooler for PDX:

 

Wed: 104

Thurs: 108

Fri: 100

What does it say for Seattle?

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF just keeps the heat going through next week though.

[TT-SEA]

What does it say for Seattle?

 

Wed: 87

Thurs: 91

Fri: 94

Sat: 89

 

But you can probably add 3-5 degrees to account for its cool bias in the Puget Sound region.

[Jesse]

The duration of the heat on the Euro is just ******* stupid.

[Tyler Mode]

The duration of the heat on the Euro is just f***** stupid.

Give us 110 on Thursday and 85 Friday and beyond...I'd rather have that than 105 and 90-95 for another ten D**n days!

[Jesse]

Give us 110 on Thursday and 85 Friday and beyond...I'd rather have that than 105 and 90-95 for another ten d**n days!

Agreed. I have a petition you can sign. Dewey will be collecting them on Wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

Give us 110 on Thursday and 85 Friday and beyond...I'd rather have that than 105 and 90-95 for another ten d**n days!

 

Here the 12Z ECMWF output for PDX...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Here the 12Z ECMWF output for PDX...

 

That's ridiculous.

[TT-SEA]

That's ridiculous.

 

Porltand is the new Redding.

 

Except when it rained for months on end this spring and was buried in snow for a week in January.  

[Front Ranger]

Here the 12Z ECMWF output for PDX...

 

 

2009/1981/1967 redux?

 

I'm pretty sure if PDX hits 108, there will be a 70+ low in there. In 1981 they scored a 107/61 day with no lows above 67, but that was pre-modern UHI.

 

2009, of course, tied the all-time record warm low from 1941 with 74.

[Front Ranger]

Porltand is the new Redding.

 

Except when it rained for months on end this spring and was buried in snow for a week in January.  

 

Then again, Redding saw their fair share of rain this past fall/winter, too. Record wet October with 7.78", over 11" in January, 7.58" in February.