July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Deweydog]

Could've been one of your best fake predictions in years. Next time...

I simply posed a question. Don't be so suppressive. Today may very well have been this month's high water high.

[Jesse]

I simply posed a question. Don't be so suppressive. Today may very well have been this month's high water high.

Bold.

[Deweydog]

Bold.

...and beautiful!

[luminen]

Too hot...

 

I don't mean to complain but I really can't wait until it's reliably in the 50s/60s again with more clouds. I'm just glad I don't live in the interior like Kamloops or Kelowna, but even Revelstoke and Nelson will be hot for a prolonged period.

[Jesse]

...and beautiful!

Just like our summers.

[TT-SEA]

Spent the day exploring Whidbey Island... took the ferry over from Mukilteo and ended up at Deception Pass and then came back down via I-5.

 

Wild swings in temperature.   Langley was chilly around noon but then really warm a couple hours later.    We went to Double Bluff beach on the southwest side of the island and it was very warm and calm.   Surprisingly warm.  Deception Pass was quite chilly and windy.

 

All of the grass was brown and dried up on the entire island.    I don't think they are allowed to water there.  

 

Just a beautiful place though with amazing views that seem to appear out of nowhere all the time as you drive around.   

 

Phil - I highly recommend this during your trip... really easy from Everett.    A great PNW experience.   

[Jesse]

In Wenatchee this evening. It's still in the upper 80s. I imagine it got quite hot today.

 

Beautiful area though. We are staying in Chelan tonight, taking the ferry to Stehekin tomorrow, and staying there tomorrow night.

[TT-SEA]

View from Double Bluff beach...

 

[FroYoBro]

I started a cross country trip a couple of days ago. I'm In Vegas and it is really hot. I'll keep you updated. 

[Deweydog]

I'm in Lacey/Olympia all week. It was warm today, cooling off this evening. Almost dark now, scattered light expected by morning.

[wx_statman]

Everyone is everywhere! 

[ShawniganLake]

I'm at home. It's 82F in my living room. 73F outside. Had a high of 87F today. Felt good to work up a nice sweat at work today.

[stuffradio]

View from Double Bluff beach...

 

Sorry, I have to offset some of those American flags with a Canadian flag.

 

[TT-SEA]

Really nice pattern on the ECMWF starting Friday... upper levels cool down and temps are just a little above normal but with lots of sunshine.   The 00Z run does not show a low cloud pattern at all... and its picks up on that quite well.   It does not even show morning low clouds for the interior on any day but temps stay reasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s.  

 

Goldilocks weather.  

[Jesse]

Sorry guys.

[TT-SEA]

Sorry guys.

 

I don't mind a little heat... but too much sort of sucks.   

 

Either side of 80 is the sweet spot.

[Phil]

This Baffin Bay vortex isn't going anywhere. Some of the modeling starts dumping snow across N/NE Canada during week two and throws subfreezing air down to the Hudson Bay, and even into Newfoundland on some of the EPS members.

 

The 500mb means for d5-10 and d10-15 look almost identical.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DCF57062-0A92-4C1E-B80F-7F0394E9BC2F_zpspgtzfcie.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6810E9AD-5D92-4669-85B3-1633D5DC688F_zpsbzs2lja8.png

[TT-SEA]

Deception Pass on the north end of Whidbey Island yesterday evening...

 

 

[Front Ranger]

After a Dec-Apr period that featured a predominantly cool West/warm East pattern across the U.S., we've now seen mainly the opposite for the past 2 months.

 

 

And after a very wet late winter/early spring, the PNW has turned pretty dry over the same period.

 

[TT-SEA]

After a Dec-Apr period that featured a predominantly cool West/warm East pattern across the U.S., we've now seen mainly the opposite for the past 2 months.

 

60dTDeptUS.png

 

And after a very wet late winter/early spring, the PNW has turned pretty dry over the same period.

 

60dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

This kind of evolution is what I was sort of expecting after such an incredibly wet and persistently wet spring... but Phil was really driving home the idea of extended troughing through July.    It just did not make sense (using local history as a guide) that it would stay wet and cool through most of summer as well.    But Phil is usually right.   I am glad the AAM crash did not produce long-term, deep troughing in the West as was expected.   1994 was the only other example of a major AAM crash in June and it turned warm and dry right afterwards... but that year is not good match with other factors.

[Front Ranger]

This kind of evolution is what I was sort of expecting after such an incredibly wet and persistently wet spring... but Phil was really driving home the idea of extended troughing through July.    It just did not make sense (using local history as a guide) that it would stay wet and cool through most of summer as well.    But Phil is usually right.   I am glad the AAM crash did not produce long-term, deep troughing in the West as was expected.   1994 was the only other example of a major AAM crash in June and it turned warm and dry right afterwards... but that year is not good match with other factors.

 

I think AAM crashes are more predictive in the cool season.

[wx_statman]

Deception Pass is beautiful. Here are some pictures I took in August of 2014: 

[Phil]

This kind of evolution is what I was sort of expecting after such an incredibly wet and persistently wet spring... but Phil was really driving home the idea of extended troughing through July. It just did not make sense (using local history as a guide) that it would stay wet and cool through most of summer as well. But Phil is usually right. I am glad the AAM crash did not produce long-term, deep troughing in the West as was expected. 1994 was the only other example of a major AAM crash in June and it turned warm and dry right afterwards... but that year is not good match with other factors.

I screw up too. I've never made a perfect seasonal forecast in my life, as there's always some aspect/domain of the global circulation that will be shifted somewhat (or just plain wrong) in my forecast when compared to reality.

 

I usually forecast from a global perspective, and I rely heavily on analoging procedures that best capture the progression of the planetary energy budget(s) overall. Unfortunately, this is becoming more difficult, because we're currently transitioning into a very different climate/system state relative to the one that's dominated since the mid/late 1970s, and large scale tendencies and behaviors have been changing quickly since 2016.

 

This year, we've observed the fastest QBO cycle/downwell period on record, and have observed perhaps the weakest EHEM summer monsoonal circulation on record. Not to mention what could be the most +NAO/+NAM on record for JJA (should this system state continue) and the most amplified EPAC/WHEM SST seasonality on record. All of these factors have been players in the game, and I'm sure there are more surprises coming.

[Phil]

That said, the weakening EHEM monsoonal engine(s) and corresponding cooling of the higher latitudes/Arctic was something I'd been suspecting would occur. I just didn't think it'd be to this extent, or under such a rapid and vigorous flip back into the -QBO/high tropical tropopause regimen.

 

We'll have to see if these same factors currently driving this powerful +NAM will promote a -NAM/easterly momentum deposition during the cold season (this would be the "normal" progression, so don't count on it).

[wx_statman]

I screw up too. I've never made a perfect seasonal forecast in my life, as there's always some aspect/domain of the global circulation that will be shifted somewhat (or just plain wrong) in my forecast when compared to reality.

 

I usually forecast from a global perspective, and I rely heavily on analoging procedures that best capture the progression of the planetary energy budget(s) overall. Unfortunately, this is becoming more difficult, because we're currently transitioning into a very different climate/system state relative to the one that's dominated since the mid/late 1970s, and large scale tendencies and behaviors have been changing quickly since 2016.

 

This year, we've observed the fastest QBO cycle/downwell period on record, and have observed perhaps the weakest EHEM summer monsoonal circulation on record. Not to mention what could be the most +NAO/+NAM on record for JJA (should this system state continue) and the most amplified EPAC/WHEM SST seasonality on record. All of these factors have been players in the game, and I'm sure there are more surprises coming.

 

Maybe that helps explain last January. Completely unlike what we've been seeing in recent decades, with the protracted cold in the PNW. 

[Guest happ]

Deception Pass is beautiful. Here are some pictures I took in August of 2014: 

 

Especially like the bridge photo 

[weatherfan2012]

That said, the weakening EHEM monsoonal engine(s) and corresponding cooling of the higher latitudes/Arctic was something I'd been suspecting would occur. I just didn't think it'd be to this extent, or under such a rapid and vigorous flip back into the -QBO/high tropical tropopause regimen.

We'll have to see if these same factors currently driving this powerful +NAM will promote a -NAM/easterly momentum deposition during the cold season (this would be the "normal" progression, so don't count on it).

true because as of late nothing has been progressing in a normal fashion sure makes seasonal forecasting a challenge when there not much to go by with what we are seeing currently.

[Phil]

Maybe that helps explain last January. Completely unlike what we've been seeing in recent decades, with the protracted cold in the PNW.

Yeah, deep midwinter -PNA circulations were/are becoming less frequent over the last ~ 70 years as the zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific slackens. This is the same mechanical re-organization that's resulted in the weakening of the Asian monsoons.

 

Very stark upward shift in the January PNA since 1950:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FB218495-42A7-4C9E-A5D0-11B21BF3CED8_zps7qemtlpp.png

[Phil]

At some point, however, you're looking at the law of diminishing returns here, as the Aleutian low/NPAC jet broadens, strengthens, and propagates east/southeastward over a period of decades as convection leaves the EHEM and the Hadley Cells tighten/contract. This of course is assuming we transition into a multi-decadal solar minimum, as is widely expected.

 

So, the same progression that's thrown us into the +PNA/+NAM and positive boreal summer/autumn meridional mode will soon reinforce the -NAM/-EPO and negative summer/autumn meridional mode which dominated 17th-18th centuries, should these trends continue.

[Phil]

Note how similar the trends are between the NAO and PNA.

 

These circulation shifts don't occur usually in a vacuum..they're all inter-connected in some way or another:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FB3ADFB8-C8DE-4A95-BBFC-E22EA8ECA294_zps3p5nldkz.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FB218495-42A7-4C9E-A5D0-11B21BF3CED8_zps7qemtlpp.png

[TT-SEA]

Really been a lovely summer in Sitka...

 

[wx_statman]

Yeah, deep midwinter -PNA circulations were/are becoming less frequent over the last ~ 70 years as the zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific slackens. This is the same mechanical re-organization that's resulted in the weakening of the Asian monsoons.

 

Very stark upward shift in the January PNA since 1950:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FB218495-42A7-4C9E-A5D0-11B21BF3CED8_zps7qemtlpp.png

 

Yeah, strongly -PNA has been completely absent during January since 1972. That was our last January with -1 or lower PNA. Since 1972, we've seen -1 or lower (on a monthly averaged basis) PNA occur 8 times in December, 5 times in February, and 0 times in January.

[Phil]

Really been a lovely summer in Sitka...

 

Looks like awesome summer weather to me.

 

At least it can't be worse than this.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6DE646A4-9F99-46E0-A378-91EE395C9D19_zpsjpcsjeh3.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Looks like awesome summer weather to me.

 

At least it can't be worse than this.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6DE646A4-9F99-46E0-A378-91EE395C9D19_zpsjpcsjeh3.jpg

Both suck. Sitka sucks worse though. I could find summer activities in DC.  

[Phil]

With the +NAO average in June, and July looking even more anomalous (possibly at/above +1.5), this sets up an interesting circulation that differs notably from the progression we've observed since ~ 1980.

 

Big +NAO Julys have become a relative rarity in recent years:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/59BDBFAC-EEFD-4C70-8EEB-C10A38361C41_zpsqz5tq5z7.png

 

However, the month to watch here is August. Maintaining a +NAO into/through August has been nearly impossible in recent years due to nature of the Atlantic/EHEM meridional mode(s), and this year is trying snap the rubber band.

 

If we maintain a +NAO through August, it will confirm the system's readiness to terminate its 1970s-2010s boundaries.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D7E628F3-275D-4D2B-ACCC-A0DDE6FC5B6C_zpsjs7jkgbo.png

[Trainwreck]

I'm over this heat. 100 here in Redmond and the forecast just slightly cools over the next week to low 90's then back up again. I need to move to Newport.

[Guest happ]

I'm over this heat. 100 here in Redmond and the forecast just slightly cools over the next week to low 90's then back up again. I need to move to Newport.

 

That's hot! Are you in Redmond Oregon or Washington?

[TT-SEA]

That's hot! Are you in Redmond Oregon or Washington?

 

He is in Redmond Oregon... which is very different than Redmond WA.  

[Trainwreck]

He is in Redmond Oregon... which is very different than Redmond WA.

Phil may say it's a dry heat which it is but when it's triple digits it's hot no matter what.

 

Next few weeks here, rinse repeat, rinse repeat.

[DareDuck]

I'm over this heat. 100 here in Redmond and the forecast just slightly cools over the next week to low 90's then back up again. I need to move to Newport.

97 in Bend. Thankfully we got central AC last week. We also have the mountains just 20-30 minutes away for a cooler reprieve.