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12/8 - 12/9 "I-80 Corridor Snow Event"


Tom

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Here we go...is this the 1st "Share the Wealth" snowstorm of the season???  It appears the models are trying to converge on a general consensus for a I-80 "mini" special to kick start the Holiday storm tracking season.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS mean...it fizzles out the farther east due to lack of cold air...lets see if this changes in the next few runs...

image.png

 

 

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FWIW, the snowline came further south than what it was yesterday, so that's good news. Now has Detroit in the snow color.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/hd23.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It is follow the bouncing models time as they waffle N & S. DTX over-night leaned a little more committed towards a snowy outcome (like Niko's Accu-map)

At this time, medium range model consensus suggests a track either
over southern portions of the forecast area or perhaps a bit further
south into the northern Ohio Valley region will be favored. With the
advent of colder air with the Canadian high pressure, snow will be
more common with this system, especially if it tracks far enough
north to bring deformation banding to parts of the area. If this
occurs, accumulations will be possible. This will be the time frame
that much of the upcoming forecast will focus on this week.

image.png.745b1f86603effefbb4f84313feff65c.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control juicer east this time.

image.thumb.png.8334561fd245750118a61f1bbed1c11c.png

Interesting how EC 6z (C) seems to like us over here in SEMI. Be interesting to see if it is right tho?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

To me, the lack of appreciable antecedent cold air and where this system emerges into the Plains would have me favoring I-80/north for snow potential.  I know the 00z Euro was farther south but I'm kinda skeptical about that.

I-80 in what state tho? Makes a difference

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I-80 in what state tho? Makes a difference

Snow band should be fairly west-east oriented and I-80 also pretty much runs that way with some kinks here and there, so I'd think it would be a good dividing line all the way across.  If I-80 in Iowa gets screwed, then I-80 in Indiana probably will too.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Snow band should be fairly west-east oriented and I-80 also pretty much runs that way with some kinks here and there, so I'd think it would be a good dividing line all the way across.  If I-80 in Iowa gets screwed, then I-80 in Indiana probably will too.

Yeah, I looked and to my surprise IA & IN have I-80 at almost the same LAT. If that ends up the RN/SN line I think mby will do well. TBD

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Here we go...is this the 1st "Share the Wealth" snowstorm of the season???  It appears the models are trying to converge on a general consensus for a I-80 "mini" special to kick start the Holiday storm tracking season.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS mean...it fizzles out the farther east due to lack of cold air...lets see if this changes in the next few runs...

image.png

 

 

 

DTX mentioning that the Canadian HP will shift just enough south to provide a "cold feed". We need that over here obviously. When you coming back to IL for winter fun??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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WPC "south" with their snow line Wed-Thur:

 

image.png.a91e0750072b3bb0d8e8ecf120e290d3.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro shifted the snow into southern Iowa last night, but it has jumped back to northern Iowa.  The model trend this morning is definitely north.

image.thumb.png.6300e82f894f99a221fec6161ddd9602.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Disappointing model runs for my area today. Not surprising though. The highway 20 corridor in Iowa always does much better than down here along I80. Hopefully at least someone in Iowa gets a solid snow out of it though. 

It does always seem to be that way doesn't it? It's rare to have a snowstorm affect all of Iowa anymore, at least in recent days. I sit literally less than a mile from highway 20.

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I wouldn't mind missing this one if it means we get next week's bigger, slower, colder storm.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

 

DTX mentioning that the Canadian HP will shift just enough south to provide a "cold feed". We need that over here obviously. When you coming back to IL for winter fun??

Actually, I'm waiting a few days to make that decision as we speak.  I may need to make a pit stop somewhere before I get back.  Its nerve wrecking tracking these storms and possibly missing the 1st big snow.  I think this system is going to N of Chi or be more of a nuisance snow RN to SN or Mix scenario...

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GRR favors the Euro currently.  

 

THE GFS IS WARMER AND WOULD   HAVE THE SNOW UP IN CENTRAL LOWER AND POINTS TO THE NORTH OF   THERE. THE ECWMF IS COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW IN THE I-96   AND I-94 CORRIDORS. A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL THIS DOWN, BUT I WOULD   LEAN TO THE FURTHER SOUTH LOOK IN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT GIVEN A   ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO NOT EXPAND THE PRECIP AND WARM AIR   FURTHER NORTH AS MUCH.  

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro at hr90 and snowfall up to hr90.

1670587200-vNKRCSsVjtc.png

1670587200-WO5GdwE1UKY.png

Seeing these Euro runs, and to some extent the CMC, I can't help but see similarities with 11/22/15. I posted that I needed a W-->E slider like that one to cure my "snowless blues". Well, here we are. I appreciate you continuing to share maps even tho it looks like yby will sit this one out. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Seeing these Euro runs, and to some extent the CMC, I can't help but see similarities with 11/22/15. I posted that I needed a W-->E slider like that one to cure my "snowless blues". Well, here we are. I appreciate you continuing to share maps even tho it looks like yby will sit this one out. 

You are on the money with this one.  I wasn't expecting anything out of this one but I was hoping the one around the 12th would deliver but it may miss to my NW.  There will be more after these 2 I love active patterns and there are going to be a lot of storm threads between now and New Years.

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13 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like they are going w/ the Euro.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/MidwestSnowPotentialChan5Dec.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/EasternSnowPotentialChan5Dec4p.jpg?w=632

Yep, and if GRR is too, that says a lot. DTX says "it's all about that Canadian HP"

A big determining factor of how this plays out is an area of high pressure
drifting across southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes
through this time. A stronger high building in faster and farther
south will keep the mid and surface lows farther south which will
introduce more cold air via northeasterly flow undercutting the warm
moist air which all results in snow chances with deformation

banding. A slower or weaker high could allow the low to drift
farther north keeping warmer temps closer to the low center over the
region resulting in more rain. The ECMWF has held firm with a more
southern track for the lows, whereas the GFS has been the more
northerly solution.
 

You kinda see that in the way the snow swatch arcs SE as it heads through here. Much the same way the 2nd large storm did back in Feb 2011:

snow201102211355.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting CPC comments on today's developments:

The toughest hazard to nail down east of the Rockies is
snow. There is a clear non-GFS camp when it comes to wintry weather in the Midwest, with the
ECMWF/CMC showing a swath of heavy snow north of the expected storm track. More recent runs of the
GFS have come closer to the ECMWF/CMC camp, so it is possible heavy snow becomes the primary hazard
within the Midwest heavy precipitation threat area.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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