Tom Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Here we go...is this the 1st "Share the Wealth" snowstorm of the season??? It appears the models are trying to converge on a general consensus for a I-80 "mini" special to kick start the Holiday storm tracking season. Let's discuss... 0z EPS mean...it fizzles out the farther east due to lack of cold air...lets see if this changes in the next few runs... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 FWIW, the snowline came further south than what it was yesterday, so that's good news. Now has Detroit in the snow color. 2 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Models are still all over the place. Todays runs will be interesting. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6z Euro Control juicer east this time. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Nice soaking rain on the gfs for many Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Still nada from the GFS. I'd still take the soaker. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Canadian lifted a bit further north, but its juiced. hwy 80/30 ride the RN/SN line. EDIT: quite a bit of ice along HWY30 too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 A good jump north from the UK 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Canadian is a highway 20 special 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 It is follow the bouncing models time as they waffle N & S. DTX over-night leaned a little more committed towards a snowy outcome (like Niko's Accu-map) At this time, medium range model consensus suggests a track either over southern portions of the forecast area or perhaps a bit further south into the northern Ohio Valley region will be favored. With the advent of colder air with the Canadian high pressure, snow will be more common with this system, especially if it tracks far enough north to bring deformation banding to parts of the area. If this occurs, accumulations will be possible. This will be the time frame that much of the upcoming forecast will focus on this week. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Up up and away. I'm gonna ride the euro it's been fairly consistent. I wouldn't be shocked though if it does move north with the other models. We are jinxed at receiving any substantial precip..... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Gfs for the win! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro Control juicer east this time. Interesting how EC 6z (C) seems to like us over here in SEMI. Be interesting to see if it is right tho? 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, GDR said: Gfs for the win! Wouldn't complain one bit! I would take a good soaking rain in December any day of the week with how dry it's been! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Canadian. I'm starting to get less optimistic down this way. I think either the GFS is right and it will be mostly rain, or even if it is snow, it will likely be further north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 To me, the lack of appreciable antecedent cold air and where this system emerges into the Plains would have me favoring I-80/north for snow potential. I know the 00z Euro was farther south but I'm kinda skeptical about that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: To me, the lack of appreciable antecedent cold air and where this system emerges into the Plains would have me favoring I-80/north for snow potential. I know the 00z Euro was farther south but I'm kinda skeptical about that. I-80 in what state tho? Makes a difference Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I-80 in what state tho? Makes a difference Snow band should be fairly west-east oriented and I-80 also pretty much runs that way with some kinks here and there, so I'd think it would be a good dividing line all the way across. If I-80 in Iowa gets screwed, then I-80 in Indiana probably will too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Snow band should be fairly west-east oriented and I-80 also pretty much runs that way with some kinks here and there, so I'd think it would be a good dividing line all the way across. If I-80 in Iowa gets screwed, then I-80 in Indiana probably will too. Yeah, I looked and to my surprise IA & IN have I-80 at almost the same LAT. If that ends up the RN/SN line I think mby will do well. TBD Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: Here we go...is this the 1st "Share the Wealth" snowstorm of the season??? It appears the models are trying to converge on a general consensus for a I-80 "mini" special to kick start the Holiday storm tracking season. Let's discuss... 0z EPS mean...it fizzles out the farther east due to lack of cold air...lets see if this changes in the next few runs... DTX mentioning that the Canadian HP will shift just enough south to provide a "cold feed". We need that over here obviously. When you coming back to IL for winter fun?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 WPC "south" with their snow line Wed-Thur: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The Euro shifted the snow into southern Iowa last night, but it has jumped back to northern Iowa. The model trend this morning is definitely north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro shifted the snow into southern Iowa last night, but it has jumped back to northern Iowa. The model trend this morning is definitely north. Somebody tell the Windy City smart Alek to revise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Disappointing model runs for my area today. Not surprising though. The highway 20 corridor in Iowa always does much better than down here along I80. Hopefully at least someone in Iowa gets a solid snow out of it though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 It appears that the bulk of the snow will be for most of Nebraska, then along and North of I-80 from Ohama, NE to Pennsylvania! 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Disappointing model runs for my area today. Not surprising though. The highway 20 corridor in Iowa always does much better than down here along I80. Hopefully at least someone in Iowa gets a solid snow out of it though. It does always seem to be that way doesn't it? It's rare to have a snowstorm affect all of Iowa anymore, at least in recent days. I sit literally less than a mile from highway 20. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 I wouldn't mind missing this one if it means we get next week's bigger, slower, colder storm. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z EPS... @james1976reelin' this one in?? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z EPS... @james1976reelin' this one in?? Haha bullseye right over my IA home and I'll be down there. Fingers crossed! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: DTX mentioning that the Canadian HP will shift just enough south to provide a "cold feed". We need that over here obviously. When you coming back to IL for winter fun?? Actually, I'm waiting a few days to make that decision as we speak. I may need to make a pit stop somewhere before I get back. Its nerve wrecking tracking these storms and possibly missing the 1st big snow. I think this system is going to N of Chi or be more of a nuisance snow RN to SN or Mix scenario... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 GRR favors the Euro currently. THE GFS IS WARMER AND WOULD HAVE THE SNOW UP IN CENTRAL LOWER AND POINTS TO THE NORTH OF THERE. THE ECWMF IS COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW IN THE I-96 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL THIS DOWN, BUT I WOULD LEAN TO THE FURTHER SOUTH LOOK IN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT GIVEN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO NOT EXPAND THE PRECIP AND WARM AIR FURTHER NORTH AS MUCH. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, james1976 said: Haha bullseye right over my IA home and I'll be down there. Fingers crossed! This would be perfect for us! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 18z Euro at hr90 and snowfall up to hr90. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro at hr90 and snowfall up to hr90. Seeing these Euro runs, and to some extent the CMC, I can't help but see similarities with 11/22/15. I posted that I needed a W-->E slider like that one to cure my "snowless blues". Well, here we are. I appreciate you continuing to share maps even tho it looks like yby will sit this one out. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Looks like they are going w/ the Euro. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Seeing these Euro runs, and to some extent the CMC, I can't help but see similarities with 11/22/15. I posted that I needed a W-->E slider like that one to cure my "snowless blues". Well, here we are. I appreciate you continuing to share maps even tho it looks like yby will sit this one out. You are on the money with this one. I wasn't expecting anything out of this one but I was hoping the one around the 12th would deliver but it may miss to my NW. There will be more after these 2 I love active patterns and there are going to be a lot of storm threads between now and New Years. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, Niko said: Looks like they are going w/ the Euro. Yep, and if GRR is too, that says a lot. DTX says "it's all about that Canadian HP" A big determining factor of how this plays out is an area of high pressure drifting across southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes through this time. A stronger high building in faster and farther south will keep the mid and surface lows farther south which will introduce more cold air via northeasterly flow undercutting the warm moist air which all results in snow chances with deformation banding. A slower or weaker high could allow the low to drift farther north keeping warmer temps closer to the low center over the region resulting in more rain. The ECMWF has held firm with a more southern track for the lows, whereas the GFS has been the more northerly solution. You kinda see that in the way the snow swatch arcs SE as it heads through here. Much the same way the 2nd large storm did back in Feb 2011: 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Interesting CPC comments on today's developments: The toughest hazard to nail down east of the Rockies is snow. There is a clear non-GFS camp when it comes to wintry weather in the Midwest, with the ECMWF/CMC showing a swath of heavy snow north of the expected storm track. More recent runs of the GFS have come closer to the ECMWF/CMC camp, so it is possible heavy snow becomes the primary hazard within the Midwest heavy precipitation threat area. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 18z EC moved the heavier band of snow further east in Iowa vs 12z. Ensemble Mean: 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Needs to shift south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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