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12/8 - 12/9 "I-80 Corridor Snow Event"


Tom

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LOL. Keeps getting worse. 0z NAM doesn't even have a "storm" for The Mitt. Kills it off before it even crosses Lk. Michigan.

@Tom I don't think the GFS saw crap. It had that 18z dream run with tons of cold & storms, then immediately folded its hand right after that mega-bluff. None of that is happening. Not even close. I wouldn't make excuses for that model nor try to prop it up. The fact it appears to have scored a coup on this system is merely due to it having a warm bias, which just happens to have worked in its favor with the EPO fake-n-flip.   

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. Keeps getting worse. 0z NAM doesn't even have a "storm" for The Mitt. Kills it off before it even crosses Lk. Michigan.

@Tom I don't think the GFS saw crap. It had that 18z dream run with tons of cold & storms, then immediately folded its hand right after that mega-bluff. None of that is happening. Not even close. I wouldn't make excuses for that model nor try to prop it up. The fact it appears to have score a coup on this system is merely due to it having a warm bias, which just happens to have worked in its favor with the EPO fake-n-flip.   

And the NAO refusing to become more positive than expected. 

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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NAM says congrats IA/MN/WI

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. Keeps getting worse. 0z NAM doesn't even have a "storm" for The Mitt. Kills it off before it even crosses Lk. Michigan.

@Tom I don't think the GFS saw crap. It had that 18z dream run with tons of cold & storms, then immediately folded its hand right after that mega-bluff. None of that is happening. Not even close. I wouldn't make excuses for that model nor try to prop it up. The fact it appears to have scored a coup on this system is merely due to it having a warm bias, which just happens to have worked in its favor with the EPO fake-n-flip.   

Honestly I don't even think the GFS did that great with this upcoming storm.  A number of older runs literally had no snow band, like anywhere.  

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Not buying it for one second until 12Z comes, (no upper air on 06/18Z) but 06Z NAM/3KM came in well S in C.IA-- even E.IA.  Take it for a grain of salt for now as almost certain the NWS DMX will not mention it / throw it out in upcoming AFD. (and they didn't mention it, though AFD was posted at 2:47AM so maybe they hadn't looked at it yet-- regardless-- they mentioned trend N, so my hunch is correct). snku_acc.us_mw.pngsnku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Still 3 days out, but it looks more positive for the Euro to lead the way w/ this one than the gfs. Moderate snow could be arriving in mby by Friday. Still, bears watching.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In honor of the snow blast (and the fact I probably won’t see snow this year) the only way I can participate is present this.  

A rare 12 pointed snowflake by Dr Jason Persoff, Colorado.   

185B18A4-2694-4004-8FC6-7DB97A353A36.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Don't mind this dry slot coming up into south central IA  one bit-- despise a cold rain especially when avg precip for Dec here is like 1.5"-- be different if it was April or May when the precip would be much more needed.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The American Model is on rt w/ the Euro and takes a much further southern track, whereas yesterday was north. Tough call on this one, that's for sure. Good news is that both models agree. If I were to guess, I would say accumulating snows from M-59 North and mix or rain further south, especially towards the OH border. Time will tell.. Still 3 days to go.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 minutes ago, Niko said:

The American Model is on rt w/ the Euro and takes a much further southern track, whereas yesterday was north. Tough call on this one, that's for sure. Good news is that both models agree. If I were to guess, I would say accumulating snows from M-59 North and mix or rain further south, especially towards the OH border. Time will tell.. Still 3 days to go.

Same ol same ol M-59 and north, sigh. And how is 48 hrs = 3 days, lol?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Thermals are so bad.  No longer interested in this.  Maybe an inch they say now.  But temps at 33-36.  meh.  Hopefully the big plains storm next week brings a pattern change, but not holding my breath.   

Yep. This went from exciting stuff, to complete dumpster fire here in The Mitt. Can't wait til the next time we get this treatment from the models. Imho, the Euro continuing to show some SN across SMI is really just the latest tease. I doubt even those amounts will verify. I now have RN in my grid.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Already some businesses and clinics are going with late starts.  No schools listed yet, but I know our supt. will be out early in the morning.  My guess is we go with a 10 AM start then see the extent of the ice.  Some of the latest models show the ice starting around sunrise and lasting until early afternoon.  If that is the case, there will be a lot of closings in the area.

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Here's a NAM forecast sounding from northeastern IL on Friday.  Nice lift with good omega present in the region of steep lapse rates aloft, and this also resides in the DGZ.  I think it's going to rip for a while, especially out around O'Hare and northward but perhaps even south of there.

 

375742525_2022120718_NAM_045_42.18-87.92_severe_ml.thumb.png.952487d0e1b7430654ade364212b8ac6.png

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4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

recent GFS spits out some better accumulations 

GFS should be a SR model. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a NAM forecast sounding from northeastern IL on Friday.  Nice lift with good omega present in the region of steep lapse rates aloft, and this also resides in the DGZ.  I think it's going to rip for a while, especially out around O'Hare and northward but perhaps even south of there.

 

375742525_2022120718_NAM_045_42.18-87.92_severe_ml.thumb.png.952487d0e1b7430654ade364212b8ac6.png

Models aren't really showing much/any accums for Chi-town. Guessing this will be a "now-cast" because the thermals are right on the hairy edge between SN/RN and may come down to rates. (0z looks like it took a slight step backwards). 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 12z Euro snow map literally brings snow up the edge of the Metro here and hits a wall. Can clearly see the UHI kill the snow as I've outlined in red. 

871280972_22-12-0712zEuroh78.png.9c36757d7fd3de0141bb7a9c643db459.png

I think only the Canadian shows any real amount now for here. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

recent GFS spits out some better accumulations 

yep. 18z put yby squarely back in the game. Like GRR says, mitigating factors will decrease the net effects of whatever does fall, but you may just make up for the weak performance of the Nov clippers last year with this one. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Models aren't really showing much/any accums for Chi-town. Guessing this will be a "now-cast" because the thermals are right on the hairy edge between SN/RN and may come down to rates. (0z looks like it took a slight step backwards). 

Yeah, I'm not saying there's going to be sig accums, just that I think there will be a nice burst of mod-hvy snow especially north of the city.

Btw, check your PMs.  

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On 12/5/2022 at 9:01 AM, Niko said:

FWIW, the snowline came further south than what it was yesterday, so that's good news. Now has Detroit in the snow color.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/hd23.jpg?w=632

 

On 12/5/2022 at 9:44 AM, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control juicer east this time.

image.thumb.png.8334561fd245750118a61f1bbed1c11c.png

Nope. 

Still, respectable midlevel height falls and diffluent flow aloft
will move across the region 18z Friday - 03z Saturday, and with
eventual column saturation, a period of scattered light rain,
rain/snow mix will be possible across much of the region with
greatest likelihood south of I-69. Questions still remain on
quickness of wet bulbing/evaporative cooling processes with regards
to snow potential, but overall light QPF amounts (under 0.10 inch
with snow ratios under 10:1) will lend any accumulating snow amounts
to a few tenths of an inch at best.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Still a lot of model disagreement and the event is almost underway.  The NAM and GFS are much further north than the Canadian and HRRR in particular.  The Euro is more in between.  It's not a very wide band, so a little wobble either way will mean a hit or miss for some.  

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

No school here, just announced. Freezing drizzle has made it extremely slick. 

No late start but I'm wondering if we get an early out. We haven't had any precip thus far but did have frost this morning. Temps are in the teens; waiting to see if the precip makes it up to us. 

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13 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

No late start but I'm wondering if we get an early out. We haven't had any precip thus far but did have frost this morning. Temps are in the teens; waiting to see if the precip makes it up to us. 

It is unbelievably slick. The drizzle is very heavy, almost a light rain at 21 degrees. I think every school around here that was a 10 am start is now closed. I bet you get out early. 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is unbelievably slick. The drizzle is very heavy, almost a light rain at 21 degrees. I think every school around here that was a 10 am start is now closed. I bet you get out early. 

Yes sir we are! Drizzle has just moved in within the past 30 minutes. 

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