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August 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I know I am probably in the minority here being on a winter weather forum, but I don't like the cool weather coming the next week to 10 days. Although of course it won't be that cool(jacket weather), just cool for this time of year.

I'm always one for 80s and even 90s as long as dewpoints aren't near 80.

When it comes to winter, I've always been a snow fan and especially a snowstorm fan, but not a cold fan. I'd take a 100 degrees over 10 degrees any day :P

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Here at my house I recorded 0.42″ of rain with the thundershowers this morning. That already gives today the most one day rain fall since June 23rd. Now the next question is will yesterdays high of  87° at GRR be the warmest we get the rest of this year? With the upcoming cool down that could be the case.
 

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Great looking maps. Love the fall-like potential. Just had some heavy showers move through. Clearing off now.

 

When I first read this, I thought it said "Clearing off SNOW" :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The more I look at TWC's Accu's autumn map, I think the plains should say EARLY chilly shots! ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I know I am probably in the minority here being on a winter weather forum, but I don't like the cool weather coming the next week to 10 days. Although of course it won't be that cool(jacket weather), just cool for this time of year.

I'm always one for 80s and even 90s as long as dewpoints aren't near 80.

When it comes to winter, I've always been a snow fan and especially a snowstorm fan, but not a cold fan. I'd take a 100 degrees over 10 degrees any day :P

 

I second that.  I want summer time warmth for ALL of summer.  Once we get to November, I'm perfectly content going right into a deep freeze lasting into March with as many snow events as you throw my way.

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Absolutely pouring rain out there like in the Tropics!  Good call on mowing my lawn this morning.  It feels real soupy out there today.

 

Im sure that line made the Lolla organizers a little nervous.  If I remember correctly, they had to evacuate last year due to severe weather.

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When I first read this, I thought it said "Clearing off SNOW" :lol:

 

Prolly from Tom posting those snow fall maps yesterday. Won't be long some place in the CONUS will have a dusting, and I don't mean on the top of a mountain

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A forecast high of only 58°F for Duluth, MN today!

 

 

attachicon.gifDuluthMNwxforecastst.PNG

 

:o Plus a very raw easterly wind = pass (in Aug)

 

Officially, most of MI will have a midnight high in the upper 60's for tomorrow, however, throughout the day temps will end up near 60F!

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_34.png

 

NWS sticking with a 72F high for Marshall, and no mention of a midnight high with temps falling. Hunch is they're not into the pre-autumn autumn pattern :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The more I look at TWC's Accu's autumn map, I think the plains should say EARLY chilly shots! ;)

I think both early and late chills with warm, dry and boring in the middle. I'm happy to be enjoying my last day above 85 for the next week to 10 days at least. Augtember weather. Lol.

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Accuweather's first stab at thir Autumn outlook...

As much as I dislike Accuweather, they did do pretty well with last year's Fall outlook, predicting quite a few heat waves in September and real cold shots not hitting till late November. They were only marginally wrong with their first snow prediction, which fell in early December instead of late November.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Brrrr!  Folks out in the Plains are really feeling the Autumn-like chill this morning.  Temps are 15-30F below normal!  Back home, I stepped outside to a brisk breeze and its quite a shock to the system.  A bit nippy out there for August.

 

 

 

DGYeyCAVwAAFDrY.jpg

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Anyone out west hear of any places tying or setting new record low temps??? I'm sure there were a few places out in NE/SD/ND...KC tied a record low this morning of 52F!

Literally just heard on local radio station that some places in C IA hit record lows in the mid 40s!
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Literally just heard on local radio station that some places in C IA hit record lows in the mid 40s!

That's what I expected to here!  As I write this, the systems rotating stratus deck just came through and it looks like early October out there.  People walking around the neighborhood with light jackets & hoodies.  

 

On a side note, Al Gore is on our local Fox News channel "pumping" his new movie "An Inconvenient Sequel" and discussing a new term called "rain bombs"...LOL...where the heck does he get this stuff from??!!  Rain bombs, come on man...quit freaking people out.  Just use the term Microburst, would ya??  He even used the flooding event from a couple weeks ago that happened here as an excuse to Global Warming.  I guess they will use any "natural" event to push their agenda.

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:o Plus a very raw easterly wind = pass (in Aug)

 

 

NWS sticking with a 72F high for Marshall, and no mention of a midnight high with temps falling. Hunch is they're not into the pre-autumn autumn pattern :wacko:

 

Takes GRR a bit to get on board..they often play catch-up on impending winter storms so this shouldn't surprise.. :rolleyes:

 

 

 

 

I think both early and late chills with warm, dry and boring in the middle. I'm happy to be enjoying my last day above 85 for the next week to 10 days at least. Augtember weather. Lol.

 

Definitely has that feel along the shoreline this morning!

 

 

If this transpires, it would be one of the coolest August's the nation as a whole would endure in over a decade...

 

 

DGVz-gdUQAAHSjD.jpg

 

Trying to remember which August was the last "cool" one?? Did you have one in mind? 2003 perhaps?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That's what I expected to here!  As I write this, the systems rotating stratus deck just came through and it looks like early October out there.  People walking around the neighborhood with light jackets & hoodies.  

 

On a side note, Al Gore is on our local Fox News channel "pumping" his new movie "An Inconvenient Sequel" and discussing a new term called "rain bombs"...LOL...where the heck does he get this stuff from??!!  Rain bombs, come on man...quit freaking people out.  Just use the term Microburst, would ya??  He even used the flooding event from a couple weeks ago that happened here as an excuse to Global Warming.  I guess they will use any "natural" event to push their agenda.

Yeah his "agenda" and the majority of the scientific world's agenda. Dumb scientists.

 

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-earth-degrees-century.html

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Yeah his "agenda" and the majority of the scientific world's agenda. Dumb scientists.

 

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-earth-degrees-century.html

This topic of convo is not only debatable, but it can get emotionally taxing due to one's beliefs. We can argue both sides until we turn blue in the face.  The only thing I can say is, I do believe in Climate Change, although, I don't necessarily believe in the root causes the AGW crowd pushes.  One thing for sure, we can Agree to Disagree!

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@Jaster, looks like your place back home is still hanging on to the upper 50's!  That heavy overcast looks to hang on all day so I doubt temps rise much into the 60's today.  I think the skies have a chance of clearing up over here late afternoon but not expecting much temp rise.  Maybe mid 60's for daytime highs over here.  

 

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@Tom. I love this weather! This month has the potential to be cooler than any august I have ever lived through here except maybe '04 or '07. Either way. My favorite year to compare to here is 1977. There's a lot of August left though so we'll see how the last half goes.

 

77º with full sun at 1:00. Crazy August.

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I think the GFS is broken...  :wacko:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017080412/045/qpf_012h.us_c.png

 

High Rez NAM keeps spitting out some ridiculous rainfall amounts near the KC region.  Could this be another flooding event for them???  Some one looks to get soaked!

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

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After a brief taste of Autumn yesterday (that I didn't mind), it's now time to get out and soak up some of that vitamin D and delightful temps near 80F today!  The next 7-10 days look like perfection around these parts, except for tomorrow's cloudy/intermittent rains.  Today's wx looks exceptional.  Some high cirrus/debris clouds are rolling in from the west coming off of the heavy rains in NE/KS.  Filtered sunshine later today...not gonna complain.  Have a great Saturday.

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@Jaster, looks like your place back home is still hanging on to the upper 50's!  That heavy overcast looks to hang on all day so I doubt temps rise much into the 60's today.  I think the skies have a chance of clearing up over here late afternoon but not expecting much temp rise.  Maybe mid 60's for daytime highs over here.

 

Left work @ 3:30 and stepped out to a strong wind driven shower! Too cloudy and nasty to see anything over the lake and as I headed inland the showers got heavier and my car thermo dropped to 55! 4 pm on Aug 4th had to bump the inside temp like it was suddenly Oct. More than 30 degs colder than my commute Wed!

 

 

 

  

@ Jaster, did you see any water spouts near St. Jo??  This was taken off the shores in St. Joseph...

 

DGZEtiQXkAEcvRo.jpg

Nice! Wish I could have seen one

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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