August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

I'm hearing the latest European Weeklies have the coolest temps over the next 45 days centered right over the central/southern Plains.  Right near you neck of the woods.

 

Here is the CFSv2 trend showing the last 15 runs for Sept's temp outlook...

This is awesome! I would love a September first freeze. That hasn't happened in a while.

 

Yes I am a cold weather lover.

[OKwx2k4]

This is awesome! I would love a September first freeze. That hasn't happened in a while.

 

Yes I am a cold weather lover.

Most of us middle to south-central cold weather lovers haven't had much to enjoy in 30 months or so. Nearly every major longer range model trending colder as we go forward. I'm good with a cold September and early leaf change. It will be beautiful here.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm hearing the latest European Weeklies have the coolest temps over the next 45 days centered right over the central/southern Plains. Right near you neck of the woods.

 

Here is the CFSv2 trend showing the last 15 runs for Sept's temp outlook...

Absolutely love it.

[james1976]

Love that CPC map!

[Tom]

This is awesome! I would love a September first freeze. That hasn't happened in a while.

 

Yes I am a cold weather lover.

 

Absolutely love it.

 

I'm starting to wonder if the ridging that has blossomed over the PAC NW & Western C.A. is any sort of indicator to the pattern going forward.  CFSv2 has it backing off somewhat Week 3 which opens the door to somewhat of a warm up around these parts, but then it grows back in as we head into Sept.  This could be an important piece to the Autumn puzzle if the waters near NW NAMER warm up substantially over the coming weeks.  I recall last year in the month of Sept, troughs began targeting the PAC NW coastline/British Columbia that ultimately pumped warmth for a lot of us in the Midwest/Plains/Lakes.  We saw a few 90's last year bc of that.

 

Going forward, I'm curious to see if the CFSv2 trends for Sept are legit or rather a "head fake".  The farther north in latitude you go, in the month of Sept, you begin to see signs of the new Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm starting to wonder if the ridging that has blossomed over the PAC NW & Western C.A. is any sort of indicator to the pattern going forward. CFSv2 has it backing off somewhat Week 3 which opens the door to somewhat of a warm up around these parts, but then it grows back in as we head into Sept. This could be an important piece to the Autumn puzzle if the waters near NW NAMER warm up substantially over the coming weeks. I recall last year in the month of Sept, troughs began targeting the PAC NW coastline/British Columbia that ultimately pumped warmth for a lot of us in the Midwest/Plains/Lakes. We saw a few 90's last year bc of that.

 

Going forward, I'm curious to see if the CFSv2 trends for Sept are legit or rather a "head fake". The farther north in latitude you go, in the month of Sept, you begin to see signs of the new Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Hard to say either way. If we do warm up again towards the end of this month or into September's first week, I'm leaning towards it being the last really warm weather for quite awhile over the central US.

[Minny_Weather]

Hard to say either way. If we do warm up again towards the end of this month or into September's first week, I'm leaning towards it being the last really warm weather for quite awhile over the central US.

My goal is that I shouldn't have to turn on my A/C after the 2nd week of September. Definitely didn't achieve that last year, I turned mine on once in November.

 

10 day models starting to show a HUGE warmup, all the way to near normal.

[Tom]

Hard to say either way. If we do warm up again towards the end of this month or into September's first week, I'm leaning towards it being the last really warm weather for quite awhile over the central US.

Your gonna like this updated Week 3 & $ outlook from CPC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Lol. Yup. I'm pretty easy to figure out. Put a big blue "B" near me and I'm a pretty happy fella.

[Tom]

I was out in Plano, IL last night visiting a friend who purchased an old farm from a WWII veteran that holds historic value.  It actually turned out to be a pretty big party with tons of great food, good music and overall a great atmosphere.  Not to mention, great bon fire wx and we had a monster bon fire going!  I absolutely love these weather conditions.  Trends over the next 10+ days still looking cooler than avg .  I hope it continues into the weekend of the Chicago Air & Water Show coming up on the 18th-20th.

 

 

In other news, Monarch Pass in CO had summer time snow on Aug 3rd!

 

http://www.9news.com/mobile/article/weather/weather-colorado/its-august-and-there-was-snow-on-monarch-pass/462042816

[GDR]

Cfsv2 looks smokin warm and dry for most if not all of us this winter. Is it a sign of things to come?

[Minny_Weather]

Cfsv2 looks smokin warm and dry for most if not all of us this winter. Is it a sign of things to come?

Long range models should be taken for a grain of salt. One minor pattern change could drastically alter everything. Basically in my view, long range models are fun to look at, but that's all they are. Fun to look at.

[Hawkeye]

Today was expected to be cloudy and cool, but we ended up with all-day sun and upper 70s.

[Tom]

Last year, the QBO was obviously one of the players on the field which deterred a cold winter for cold weather fans.  Since this April, changes began in the upper levels of the atmosphere and we saw the trend towards a negative state as we moved through the summer months through July.  Currently, we have a solid -QBO state through 40mb and approaching 50mb.  May end up being a mod/strong negative state through next Winter.

 

Here is where it was in Feb, but since, it has flipped negative where you see it positive (red).

 

 

[Tom]

KC had a record low high this past Saturday on Aug 5th and it had the coolest first week in the month of Aug that recorded low high temps.  That's pretty incredible.

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 trends for the month continue to flip from a western N.A. trough, towards a ridge...downstream trough...of note, there may also be a signal of Greenland blocking to continue.  I wouldn't put much stock into the blocking yet bc that can flip rather quickly as the seasons change up that way.

 

[Tom]

NMME suggesting a hint of lower heights across the southern/eastern U.S. for Sept???  Active hurricane season???

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

 

Looks very wet along the coast line of GOM/East...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead1.png

 

 

CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/CFSv2_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

NASA...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

[Tom]

Another phenominal wx week on tap for Chitown...

 

[Tom]

Pikes Peak, CO snow!  I remember visiting there during my childhood and driving up the winding roads that made me car sick.  Would like to go back and visit this place in the future.

 

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2017/08/07/pikes-peak-sees-summer-snow-monday-morning/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Tom]

I was going to wait a couple more days to post on this matter but by the middle of the week, both GFS/EURO are showing a vigorous Arctic storm over the Pole.  Odds are in favor that the annual decline in temps up there will start ahead of schedule this year.

 

 

 

[WBadgersW]

Pikes Peak, CO snow! I remember visiting there during my childhood and driving up the winding roads that made me car sick. Would like to go back and visit this place in the future.

 

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2017/08/07/pikes-peak-sees-summer-snow-monday-morning/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

That's awesome! Might take a trip out there next summer.

[jaster220]

I was going to wait a couple more days to post on this matter but by the middle of the week, both GFS/EURO are showing a vigorous Arctic storm over the Pole.  Odds are in favor that the annual decline in temps up there will start ahead of schedule this year.

 

 

 

 

Fidget Spinner snow shield

[Tom]

Water spout located offshore from Chicago this am...

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

I love the change of seasons. Cooler temps. Loss of daylight. Gets me in the mood. Only 25 days til Met Fall!

[Tom]

Over the last month, check out the shift in SST anomalies in the NE PAC.  Notable changes along the NW NAMER coast as warmer waters have invaded the British Columbia coastline and the coldest waters N of Hawaii have maintained.  I wonder how much effect, if any, this will have as we roll on through Aug into Sept.  Will this promote more ridging???  To early to say for sure.

 

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.7.6.2017.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.8.7.2017.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Awesome. Just the way I like it. Euro weeklies continue to advertise below-normal temps in the Midwest/Plains all throughout its range. I'm fairly outspoken about how much I don't pay attention to long range models, but boy chilly September mornings do feel nice right about now while I am still trapped in humid Houston for two more weeks.

 

Precip being advertised as at to slightly above normal throughout the range.

[james1976]

48° this morning! Perfection

[james1976]

DMX disco for Friday and beyond:

 

Friday and beyond...

High pressure looks to build into the upper Midwest by Saturday

afternoon...likely dropping down a slug of cooler air into Iowa

which should keep daytime temperatures in the 70s, and overnight

temperatures in the 50s across most of the state through the

weekend. Towards the end of the weekend, both the GFS and the

ECMWF have a deep upper low approaching the Pacific NW coast. The

long- range models diverge wildly after that, with the GFS

bringing the low onshore, weakening it, and pushing it across

southern Canada. The ECMWF, however, continues to deepen the low

and hangs it out over the northwestern CONUS. If the GFS solution

wins out, warmer temperatures into the 80s and 90s would be

plausible next week. If the ECMWF wins out, persistent

temperatures in the 70s and 80s seem more likely.

[Tom]

To add to James' post above, both the GEFS/EPS are suggesting an Omega Blocking pattern to develop over Hudson Bay in the 6-10 day.  I'd lean more towards the Euro solution at this stage.  A pocket of cool should keep things cooler underneath the ridging up to the north.

 

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Funny. I just came on to mention the exact same thing. If GFS were to pan out, that would bring a death ridge back to the region, alas another heat wave. Euro would lack warm air advection. I'm gonna say right now that if Euro wins, Lincoln would 90% certainly be done with 90s for the rest of the season. If GFS wins, well, it would be a normal Summer.

[Tom]

Plenty of morning lows in the upper 40's last night out in the western burbs...Aug is teasing us with Autumnal wx...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still thinking that the pattern warms up a little bit for most of the northern tier of our sub forum out towards the day of the Solar Eclipse (21st) and through Labor Day weekend.  Although, I do see a cooler regime right around the end of the Labor Day weekend.  I hope it stays nice for Labor Day and puts the icing on the cake for a spectacular Summer for many of us.  When I left for Chitown, I was hoping for a cooler August and I cannot express how much I'm enjoying this weather.  Perfection.

[jaster220]

Marshall hit 48º about 7 am. Definitely chilly Sept feel when I stepped out to the garage.

[Tom]

CPC's Long Lead SST CA forecasts are out today and here is the thinking through the first half of met Autumn...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201707/cahgt_anom.0.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201707/cat2m_anom.0.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201707/caprec_anom.0.png

[Minny_Weather]

CPC's Long Lead SST CA forecasts are out today and here is the thinking through the first half of met Autumn...

 

Eh. Could be worse. At least we're basically in the equal chances range.

[Tom]

It's been a long while since I've taken a look at these CFS snowfall maps to provide any indication of where the hemispheric pattern may be heading as we develop the new cyclical pattern for next season.  I'll update these maps from time to time to see if the "guidance" has changed in any way.

 

Let's dive in...

 

By Sept 15th, the model is seeing the snow beginning to fall across parts of AK and the Archipelago regions...

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/08/basis00/namk/weas/17091600_0800.gif

 

 

Oct 1st...

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/08/basis00/namk/weas/17100100_0800.gif

 

 

November 1st...

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/07/basis00/namk/weas/17110100_0700.gif

 

 

FWIW, take it with a grain of salt, but if anything close to this evolves over CA/AK, it will be an early start to Autumn.  Last year, the snow pack developed really quick in W CA & AK.  Something similar is being suggested across NW NAMER.  I like what I'm seeing this far out, but again, it's just something to ponder on while we enjoy the rest of summer.

 

BTW, Siberia and across much of Russia, the snow pack explodes in October so it may be another big year for the Snow Advance Index (SAI).

[Tom]

I'm hearing the latest ECMWF monthlies are suggesting a lot of high latitude blocking during late Autumn and throughout the Winter.  Gotta keep an eye on the SAI, QBO, and pressure patterns over N.A. as we roll into Autumn.  May low solar also contribute???  Interesting set of players that are on the field for next cold season.

[jaster220]

 

FWIW, take it with a grain of salt, but if anything close to this evolves over CA/AK, it will be an early start to Autumn.  Last year, the snow pack developed really quick in W CA & AK.

 

I guess you could say that cold air and thus winter came early last year. Problem was, it didn't stick around

[Tom]

Well, the Arctic temps have just touched the 0C (freezing) mark a little earlier than normal this year.  Let's see if the cyclone up near the Pole pushes it below the freezing mark through the rest of the week.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

[Tom]

I wanted to post this earlier and over the last 2 days a surprisingly huge drop in the SOI...

 

Average for last 30 days 4.68

Average for last 90 days0.30

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -26.95

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Both GEFS and EPS indicating a warm-up back to slightly above normal temperatures. Starting on the 23rd that is. That's still two weeks away!