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Winter 17'-18' predictions...


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Here we are at the end if July and I am already thinking about the prospect of an epic winter. I am once again preparing for it already. I know its way too early to make any weather predictions. However we already have the lowest number of sunspots since 2009 @ 54 to date for 2017. I remember Phil posting something about a year and a half ago that pretty much summed up winter 2017-2018 to be something borderline epic for the PNW. Major blocking in the Aleutians.....hopefully leading to the rare combo of cold air and moisture for an extended period. What do you think?

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Kinda had that the past few years though. I think we're due for a milder late December/beginning of January period. Late January continues to be the biggest underachiever this decade.

 

I was just rolling with 1927. Totally unscientific. October 1926 - January 1927 was a pretty remarkable match to that same stretch in 2016-17.

 

SLE hit 108 on 7/23/1927 as well (although that reading was possibly over-exposed).

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I was just rolling with 1927. Totally unscientific. October 1926 - January 1927 was a pretty remarkable match to that same stretch in 2016-17.

 

SLE hit 108 on 7/23/1927 as well (although that reading was possibly over-exposed).

Well, it'd certainly be nice if we could just keep following that timeline up until 1930 or so.

 

As you know that decade from December 1919 to January 1930 was our climate channeling the Midwest, basically. Much drier/sunnier/more continental than almost any other period in our history.

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Here we are at the end if July and I am already thinking about the prospect of an epic winter. I am once again preparing for it already. I know its way too early to make any weather predictions. However we already have the lowest number of sunspots since 2009 @ 54 to date for 2017. I remember Phil posting something about a year and a half ago that pretty much summed up winter 2017-2018 to be something borderline epic for the PNW. Major blocking in the Aleutians.....hopefully leading to the rare combo of cold air and moisture for an extended period. What do you think?

I don't recall saying that, however the low solar/-QBO background this year will offer a high risk/high reward type pattern.

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Well, it'd certainly be nice if we could just keep following that timeline up until 1930 or so.

 

As you know that decade from December 1919 to January 1930 was our climate channeling the Midwest, basically. Much drier/sunnier/more continental than almost any other period in our history.

 

Fun times. It was probably the single most important transitional decade in the NH since the 19th century, with the PDO flip and the onset of Arctic warming. Things more or less transitioned from a late 19th century hangover to a more modern regime that we're familiar with.

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I don't recall saying that, however the low solar/-QBO background this year will offer a high risk/high reward type pattern.

 

I don't know about a year and a half ago, but you have predicted colder winters.

 

Here's an example -

 

"Big winters on the way for the PNW, significant global cooling on the immediate horizon"

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/33198-big-winters-on-the-way-for-the-pnw-significant-global-cooling-on-the-immediate-horizon/

 

Granted you were a teenager when you made these, but it got people excited.

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I don't know about a year and a half ago, but you have predicted colder winters.

 

Here's an example -

 

"Big winters on the way for the PNW, significant global cooling on the immediate horizon"

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/33198-big-winters-on-the-way-for-the-pnw-significant-global-cooling-on-the-immediate-horizon/

 

Granted you were a teenager when you made these, but it got people excited.

I don't remember much from those days, to be honest. That being said, I'm as confident as I've ever been regarding my forecast for overall cooling into the 2030s, with the exception of Antarctica (which should experience warming).

 

In fact, I'm more confident in the upcoming climate cooling than I've ever been of any seasonal forecast I've made. I'd bet my life savings on it.

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Nina will be weak to moderate. Thinking 2007-08 2011/12 type of winter. 

 

2010/11 would be decent. 

 

Good chance of above average precip. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Nina will be weak to moderate. Thinking 2007-08 2011/12 type of winter. 

 

2010/11 would be decent. 

 

Good chance of above average precip. 

Those top two winters were very different for me. I would enjoy another 07-08 but 11/12 sucked. A 10/11 repeat wouldn't be bad either. 

 

I think we are in for an overall more mild winter but I also have little faith in seasonal forecasts.

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A few analogs I've looked at for various reasons are 1922-23, 1951-52, and 2008-09.  I'll go into it more deeply over the next week or so.  No reason to think this winter won't have something good to offer.  Very low and dropping solar, weak cool ENSO, momentum from last winter, etc.  Tremendously dry summers like this are often a good omen also especially with cool ENSO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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I'm officially leaning cold west/warm east overall, but more 2007/08 style than 2008/09 style, and more pattern swings and somewhat more Arctic blocking this year compared to 2007/08.

 

- Primary analogs are 1956/57, 1967/68, 1989/90, and 2007/08.

 

- Secondary analogs are 1981/82, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2003/04, and 2005/06.

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- I also suspect that, while this winter will be warmer than average across most of the US once again (except the NW), it will be the final one in the stretch that started with the super niño in 2015/16, which also likely marked the global temperature peak for the next several decades at least.

 

- Next winter (2018/19) should have neutral/cool neutral ENSO and a developing +QBO, providing for a much cooler solution across the US, more in the style of 2008/09 or 1984/85.

 

- The following winter (2019/20) should feature the El Niño response in the tropics as the IPWP begins to retract equatirward as the weakening Sun allows the BDC to recovet and drop the hammer on the NAM/SAM, further decreasing the static stability integral in the tropics. This will mark the turn into a more prolonged -NAM state like 2009/10 did, only even more-so this go around.

 

- The early 2020s should feature a multi-year moderate to strong La Niña, and start the real downturn into a multidecadal cold Atlantic/-NAO background state. If anything, I'm more confident in this La Niña stretch than I am about 2018/19, which is a somewhat borderline case still..

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I'm officially leaning cold west/warm east overall, but more 2007/08 style than 2008/09 style, and more pattern swings and somewhat more Arctic blocking this year compared to 2007/08.

 

- Primary analogs are 1956/57, 1967/68, 1989/90, and 2007/08.

 

- Secondary analogs are 1981/82, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2003/04, and 2005/06.

 

Thanks for putting this out there! Always appreciate peoples early winter thoughts.

 

I'm curious why 1996-97 wouldn't be included in one of you analogs? Similar ENSO state and PDO but I assume the QBO/NAM state was different?

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Well, it'd certainly be nice if we could just keep following that timeline up until 1930 or so.

 

As you know that decade from December 1919 to January 1930 was our climate channeling the Midwest, basically. Much drier/sunnier/more continental than almost any other period in our history.

 

I'm officially leaning cold west/warm east overall, but more 2007/08 style than 2008/09 style, and more pattern swings and somewhat more Arctic blocking this year compared to 2007/08.

 

- Primary analogs are 1956/57, 1967/68, 1989/90, and 2007/08.

 

- Secondary analogs are 1981/82, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2003/04, and 2005/06.

 

I certainly agree with some of those.  Many of them had some decent goodies for the NW.  The only real fly in the ointment for 2008 is the QBO.  Low NP summer, very low  / dropping solar, good ENSO match, and some good similarity in observed weather.  I'm really doubting a 2007-08 type winter due to the cold ENSO being fairly weak.  I think we will fare better if we remain weak Nina or cold neutral.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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November 2010 seen record warmth the first of the month and then lowland snow and ice the last of the month. I don't remember anything else from that winter. Anyone have any memories from then they'd like to share?

 

We almost got clobbered in January and had a nearly historic cold wave in late February.  If the January event had panned out it would have been a really good winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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We almost got clobbered in January and had a nearly historic cold wave in late February.  If the January event had panned out it would have been a really good winter.

 

I was still living down in the valley in Silverton that winter. It was interesting, but down here the valley kind of struck out with snow. Just about 1/2" in November and February. 

 

Up where I live now though it was a pretty good winter. Probably about as much snow as this past winter, maybe more. Lots of snow in March and even into April. I remember driving up here in either late March/early April and there being about 6" on the ground. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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To be fair, those cold waves occurred in a different era of our climate. The February 2011 cold wave was historic at least post-1900.

 

Yeah, that's fine to say if you want to give it that handicap. March 1906 would probably be the next most "recent" event that's clearly both later and more impressive on a regional scale.

 

Of course, there are some more relatively recent winter cold waves that still manage to compare more favorably to the peaks of that different climate era (December 1968, December 1972/2013 in western OR, November 1985, February 1989). 

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Yeah, that's fine to say if you want to give it that handicap. March 1906 would probably be the next most "recent" event that's clearly both later and more impressive on a regional scale.

 

Of course, there are some more relatively recent winter cold waves that still manage to compare more favorably to the peaks of that different climate era (December 1968, December 1972/2013 in western OR, November 1985, February 1989). 

 

The mid-Feb to mid-March period is a little different. We've had a reorganization in the wave train during that particular time of year since the turn of the 20th century. Major cold blasts (affecting both OR and WA) post-February 25 especially have gone from being a subdecadal occurrence to a once in a generation type thing. That's obviously not the case for Nov-Dec. In other words, you almost have to give late February cold waves like 1960/1962/2011 that handicap when comparing them to anything pre-1900.

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The mid-Feb to mid-March period is a little different. We've had a reorganization in the wave train during that particular time of year since the turn of the 20th century. Major cold blasts (affecting both OR and WA) post-February 25 especially have gone from being a subdecadal occurrence to a once in a generation type thing. That's obviously not the case for Nov-Dec. In other words, you almost have to give late February cold waves like 1960/1962/2011 that handicap when comparing them to anything pre-1900.

 

Yeah, applying for context it could very well be the most impressive arctic airmass of the 21st century thus far. December 2013, November 2010, and Halloween 2003 would probably be the other contenders, all in that late fall-early winter timeframe.

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Yeah, applying for context it could very well be the most impressive arctic airmass of the 21st century thus far. December 2013, November 2010, and Halloween 2003 would probably be the other contenders, all in that late fall-early winter timeframe.

 

That's a tough call. I might also give February 2011 the nod simply because of the late-Feb timing. For Oregon alone, I still like Halloween 2002. 

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That's a tough call. I might also give February 2011 the nod simply because of the late-Feb timing. For Oregon alone, I still like Halloween 2002. 

 

Halloween 2002 was impressive. Incredible radiational cooling. The 2002-06 stretch saw 3 major late October cold snaps in W. Oregon. 

 

Eugene set their all-time October low of 18 on 10/31/02 and broke it 4 years later with a low of 17.

 

Personally I think December 2013 is incredibly underrated by most on this forum. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Halloween 2002 was impressive. Incredible radiational cooling. The 2002-06 stretch saw 3 major late October cold snaps in W. Oregon. 

 

Eugene set their all-time October low of 18 on 10/31/02 and broke it 4 years later with a low of 17.

 

Personally I think December 2013 is incredibly underrated by most on this forum. 

 

I think mostly by the WA members. That cold wave was pretty underwhelming in the Seattle area. It was easily beaten by the likes of November 2010 up there. 

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Definitely for lows and certainly for the eastern part of the region. The CAA wasn't quite impressive enough for most of WA and the westside though.

 

The gorge outflow on 10/30/2002 was pretty phenomenal for October though. E 40g48 and a dp of 3F at PDX.

 

2003 was definitely more impressive for duration of cold at the 850 level. We're basically talking two days (2002) vs. a full week (2003). The latter, of course, had highs in the 30's and lowland snowfall by early November while 2002 shot back into the 60's in the valley.

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The gorge outflow on 10/30/2002 was pretty phenomenal for October though. E 40g48 and a dp of 3F at PDX.

 

2003 was definitely more impressive for duration of cold at the 850 level. We're basically talking two days (2002) vs. a full week (2003). The latter, of course, had highs in the 30's and lowland snowfall by early November while 2002 shot back into the 60's in the valley.

 

Had to look back for this area when you mentioned that kind of outflow and wow. Bozeman Airport pulled off a 12F / 3F day on the 30th and a 15F / -5F on the 31st. Frigid night for the trick-or-treaters!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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March 1865, 1867, and 1870 would like a stern word with you. I hear late February 1890 is kind of upset as well.

 

Long before PDX even existed. My comment was obviously referring to the modern era. 

 

Low of 5 at OLM on 2/25. You're not going to find many 20th or 21st century readings more impressive than that.

A forum for the end of the world.

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High of 24 at Fort Steilacoom on 3/1/1865. Brrr!!!

 

 

The 1865 through 1870 period was utterly insane for cold March cold waves.  1865, 1867, and 1870 had major cold waves that brought lows in the Puget Sound area to 15 or lower.  1865 and 1870 had major snows also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The 1865 through 1870 period was utterly insane for cold March cold waves.  1865, 1867, and 1870 had major cold waves that brought lows in the Puget Sound area to 15 or lower.  1865 and 1870 had major snows also.

 

I've never actually seen the 1870 numbers for Fort Vancouver or Steilacoom. If you or Dmitri have anything then I'd love to see it.

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I've never actually seen the 1870 numbers for Fort Vancouver or Steilacoom. If you or Dmitri have anything then I'd love to see it.

 

I don't have anything for either of those.  I have Seattle (amazingly) and a Fort on San Juan Island.  I'll post some of those numbers tomorrow (later today now).  A real eye popper is the 2pm temperature of 17 on San Juan.  That was after the 10th of the month also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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I've never actually seen the 1870 numbers for Fort Vancouver or Steilacoom. If you or Dmitri have anything then I'd love to see it.

 

I remember Jim posted the numbers for Camp San Juan a few years ago. I believe the lowest 3-daily obs was 10F, which possibly implies a minimum in the 5-10F range between observation times.

 

Fort Steilacoom observations stopped in 1868, Fort Vancouver along with a number of other fort/signal service stations that I have are missing March 1870. The War Department was really dropping the ball on regular weather observations around that time it seems...possibly one of the motivations for establishing the Weather Bureau in 1871. 

 

I do have a number of other obs for March 1870:

 

Tatoosh Island had 2pm obs of 25F & 26F on March 12-13, 1870, along with a 7am reading of 19F on the 13th. 

 

Eola had back to back 2pm readings of 28F on March 13 & 14, 1870. I'd be willing to bet highs were in the mid-20's at present day PDX. 

 

Fort Lapwai just east of Lewiston @ 950' had a 7am reading of 1F on 3/14/1870, compared to a lowest value of 7F at Lewiston in mid-March 1906. Interestingly Fort Colville came nowhere close to March 1867...lowest obs was -2F in 1870 compared to an insane -20F in mid-March 1867. 

 

Fort Ellis (Bozeman) was -36F at 7am on 3/14/1870 - easily below the modern March record for the area. 

 

Ironically, the Missoula signal service station began observations on 3/15/1870 with a 7am reading of -6F. The very first reading in that station's history was one of the lowest on record so late in the spring. Only the -7F on 3/15/1906 was lower. 

 

Fort Wrangell in SE AK dropped to -10F on 3/11/1870:

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F5951BE3-F84A-4AEA-BB56-9B645B49EB59.pdf

 

Equivalent to the post-1917 all time record low of -10F in Jan 1947 & Jan 1974 at Wrangell...although the siting of the original station may have been better for radiational cooling. 

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I remember Jim posted the numbers for Camp San Juan a few years ago. I believe the lowest 3-daily obs was 10F, which possibly implies a minimum in the 5-10F range between observation times.

 

Fort Steilacoom observations stopped in 1868, Fort Vancouver along with a number of other fort/signal service stations that I have are missing March 1870. The War Department was really dropping the ball on regular weather observations around that time it seems...possibly one of the motivations for establishing the Weather Bureau in 1871. 

 

I do have a number of other obs for March 1870:

 

Tatoosh Island had 2pm obs of 25F & 26F on March 12-13, 1870, along with a 7am reading of 19F on the 13th. 

 

Eola had back to back 2pm readings of 28F on March 13 & 14, 1870. I'd be willing to bet highs were in the mid-20's at present day PDX. 

 

Fort Lapwai just east of Lewiston @ 950' had a 7am reading of 1F on 3/14/1870, compared to a lowest value of 7F at Lewiston in mid-March 1906. Interestingly Fort Colville came nowhere close to March 1867...lowest obs was -2F in 1870 compared to an insane -20F in mid-March 1867. 

 

Fort Ellis (Bozeman) was -36F at 7am on 3/14/1870 - easily below the modern March record for the area. 

 

Ironically, the Missoula signal service station began observations on 3/15/1870 with a 7am reading of -6F. The very first reading in that station's history was one of the lowest on record so late in the spring. Only the -7F on 3/15/1906 was lower. 

 

Fort Wrangell in SE AK dropped to -10F on 3/11/1870:

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F5951BE3-F84A-4AEA-BB56-9B645B49EB59.pdf

 

Equivalent to the post-1917 all time record low of -10F in Jan 1947 & Jan 1974 at Wrangell...although the siting of the original station may have been better for radiational cooling. 

 

This is great stuff! Where did you get your hands on Fort Ellis data?? 

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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