crf450ish Posted July 30, 2017 Report Share Posted July 30, 2017 Here we are at the end if July and I am already thinking about the prospect of an epic winter. I am once again preparing for it already. I know its way too early to make any weather predictions. However we already have the lowest number of sunspots since 2009 @ 54 to date for 2017. I remember Phil posting something about a year and a half ago that pretty much summed up winter 2017-2018 to be something borderline epic for the PNW. Major blocking in the Aleutians.....hopefully leading to the rare combo of cold air and moisture for an extended period. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 30, 2017 Report Share Posted July 30, 2017 Mild winter overall. One glancing blow in early December and a cold week in late January. 2.3" of snow at PDX 3.5" at SEA. Dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 30, 2017 Report Share Posted July 30, 2017 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vBeGQAvabOE Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I'm feeling a New Year's Arctic airmass this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I'm feeling a New Year's Arctic airmass this winter.Kinda had that the past few years though. I think we're due for a milder late December/beginning of January period. Late January continues to be the biggest underachiever this decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Kinda had that the past few years though. I think we're due for a milder late December/beginning of January period. Late January continues to be the biggest underachiever this decade. I was just rolling with 1927. Totally unscientific. October 1926 - January 1927 was a pretty remarkable match to that same stretch in 2016-17. SLE hit 108 on 7/23/1927 as well (although that reading was possibly over-exposed). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I was just rolling with 1927. Totally unscientific. October 1926 - January 1927 was a pretty remarkable match to that same stretch in 2016-17. SLE hit 108 on 7/23/1927 as well (although that reading was possibly over-exposed).Well, it'd certainly be nice if we could just keep following that timeline up until 1930 or so. As you know that decade from December 1919 to January 1930 was our climate channeling the Midwest, basically. Much drier/sunnier/more continental than almost any other period in our history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Here we are at the end if July and I am already thinking about the prospect of an epic winter. I am once again preparing for it already. I know its way too early to make any weather predictions. However we already have the lowest number of sunspots since 2009 @ 54 to date for 2017. I remember Phil posting something about a year and a half ago that pretty much summed up winter 2017-2018 to be something borderline epic for the PNW. Major blocking in the Aleutians.....hopefully leading to the rare combo of cold air and moisture for an extended period. What do you think?I don't recall saying that, however the low solar/-QBO background this year will offer a high risk/high reward type pattern. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Well, it'd certainly be nice if we could just keep following that timeline up until 1930 or so. As you know that decade from December 1919 to January 1930 was our climate channeling the Midwest, basically. Much drier/sunnier/more continental than almost any other period in our history. Fun times. It was probably the single most important transitional decade in the NH since the 19th century, with the PDO flip and the onset of Arctic warming. Things more or less transitioned from a late 19th century hangover to a more modern regime that we're familiar with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I don't know about a year and a half ago, but you have predicted colder winters. Here's an example - "Big winters on the way for the PNW, significant global cooling on the immediate horizon" http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/33198-big-winters-on-the-way-for-the-pnw-significant-global-cooling-on-the-immediate-horizon/ Granted you were a teenager when you made these, but it got people excited.I don't remember much from those days, to be honest. That being said, I'm as confident as I've ever been regarding my forecast for overall cooling into the 2030s, with the exception of Antarctica (which should experience warming). In fact, I'm more confident in the upcoming climate cooling than I've ever been of any seasonal forecast I've made. I'd bet my life savings on it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted August 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2017 FWIW........ hell yeah! http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1618-preliminary-discussion-for-fall-winter-2017-18/ Last winter my area experienced 120% of normal snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 26, 2017 Report Share Posted August 26, 2017 Nina will be weak to moderate. Thinking 2007-08 2011/12 type of winter. 2010/11 would be decent. Good chance of above average precip. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2017 Report Share Posted August 26, 2017 Nina will be weak to moderate. Thinking 2007-08 2011/12 type of winter. 2010/11 would be decent. Good chance of above average precip.Two winters that heavily favored the foothills? Shocker of the day!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted August 26, 2017 Report Share Posted August 26, 2017 Nina will be weak to moderate. Thinking 2007-08 2011/12 type of winter. 2010/11 would be decent. Good chance of above average precip. Those top two winters were very different for me. I would enjoy another 07-08 but 11/12 sucked. A 10/11 repeat wouldn't be bad either. I think we are in for an overall more mild winter but I also have little faith in seasonal forecasts. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 A few analogs I've looked at for various reasons are 1922-23, 1951-52, and 2008-09. I'll go into it more deeply over the next week or so. No reason to think this winter won't have something good to offer. Very low and dropping solar, weak cool ENSO, momentum from last winter, etc. Tremendously dry summers like this are often a good omen also especially with cool ENSO. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm officially leaning cold west/warm east overall, but more 2007/08 style than 2008/09 style, and more pattern swings and somewhat more Arctic blocking this year compared to 2007/08. - Primary analogs are 1956/57, 1967/68, 1989/90, and 2007/08. - Secondary analogs are 1981/82, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2003/04, and 2005/06. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 - I also suspect that, while this winter will be warmer than average across most of the US once again (except the NW), it will be the final one in the stretch that started with the super niño in 2015/16, which also likely marked the global temperature peak for the next several decades at least. - Next winter (2018/19) should have neutral/cool neutral ENSO and a developing +QBO, providing for a much cooler solution across the US, more in the style of 2008/09 or 1984/85. - The following winter (2019/20) should feature the El Niño response in the tropics as the IPWP begins to retract equatirward as the weakening Sun allows the BDC to recovet and drop the hammer on the NAM/SAM, further decreasing the static stability integral in the tropics. This will mark the turn into a more prolonged -NAM state like 2009/10 did, only even more-so this go around. - The early 2020s should feature a multi-year moderate to strong La Niña, and start the real downturn into a multidecadal cold Atlantic/-NAO background state. If anything, I'm more confident in this La Niña stretch than I am about 2018/19, which is a somewhat borderline case still.. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted September 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Directly in line with the grand solar minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 I'm officially leaning cold west/warm east overall, but more 2007/08 style than 2008/09 style, and more pattern swings and somewhat more Arctic blocking this year compared to 2007/08. - Primary analogs are 1956/57, 1967/68, 1989/90, and 2007/08. - Secondary analogs are 1981/82, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2003/04, and 2005/06. Thanks for putting this out there! Always appreciate peoples early winter thoughts. I'm curious why 1996-97 wouldn't be included in one of you analogs? Similar ENSO state and PDO but I assume the QBO/NAM state was different? 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 4, 2017 Report Share Posted September 4, 2017 Well, it'd certainly be nice if we could just keep following that timeline up until 1930 or so. As you know that decade from December 1919 to January 1930 was our climate channeling the Midwest, basically. Much drier/sunnier/more continental than almost any other period in our history. I'm officially leaning cold west/warm east overall, but more 2007/08 style than 2008/09 style, and more pattern swings and somewhat more Arctic blocking this year compared to 2007/08. - Primary analogs are 1956/57, 1967/68, 1989/90, and 2007/08. - Secondary analogs are 1981/82, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2003/04, and 2005/06. I certainly agree with some of those. Many of them had some decent goodies for the NW. The only real fly in the ointment for 2008 is the QBO. Low NP summer, very low / dropping solar, good ENSO match, and some good similarity in observed weather. I'm really doubting a 2007-08 type winter due to the cold ENSO being fairly weak. I think we will fare better if we remain weak Nina or cold neutral. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted September 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 November 2010 seen record warmth the first of the month and then lowland snow and ice the last of the month. I don't remember anything else from that winter. Anyone have any memories from then they'd like to share? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 November 2010 seen record warmth the first of the month and then lowland snow and ice the last of the month. I don't remember anything else from that winter. Anyone have any memories from then they'd like to share? We almost got clobbered in January and had a nearly historic cold wave in late February. If the January event had panned out it would have been a really good winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 We almost got clobbered in January and had a nearly historic cold wave in late February. If the January event had panned out it would have been a really good winter. I was still living down in the valley in Silverton that winter. It was interesting, but down here the valley kind of struck out with snow. Just about 1/2" in November and February. Up where I live now though it was a pretty good winter. Probably about as much snow as this past winter, maybe more. Lots of snow in March and even into April. I remember driving up here in either late March/early April and there being about 6" on the ground. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 We almost got clobbered in January and had a nearly historic cold wave in late February. If the January event had panned out it would have been a really good winter.The late Feb cold wave was fully historic. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 The late Feb cold wave was fully historic.Does an asterisk shaped bat signal summon you whenever someone downplays one of the many second rate cold waves of the last decade or so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 Does an asterisk shaped bat signal summon you whenever someone downplays one of the many second rate cold waves of the last decade or so?The numbers speak for themselves. Feb 2011 was not second rate. Latest temps that cold in many spots. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 The numbers speak for themselves. Feb 2011 was not second rate. Latest temps that cold in many spots. March 1865, 1867, and 1870 would like a stern word with you. I hear late February 1890 is kind of upset as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 March 1865, 1867, and 1870 would like a stern word with you. I hear late February 1890 is kind of upset as well.To be fair, those cold waves occurred in a different era of our climate. The February 2011 cold wave was historic at least post-1900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 To be fair, those cold waves occurred in a different era of our climate. The February 2011 cold wave was historic at least post-1900. Yeah, that's fine to say if you want to give it that handicap. March 1906 would probably be the next most "recent" event that's clearly both later and more impressive on a regional scale. Of course, there are some more relatively recent winter cold waves that still manage to compare more favorably to the peaks of that different climate era (December 1968, December 1972/2013 in western OR, November 1985, February 1989). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yeah, that's fine to say if you want to give it that handicap. March 1906 would probably be the next most "recent" event that's clearly both later and more impressive on a regional scale. Of course, there are some more relatively recent winter cold waves that still manage to compare more favorably to the peaks of that different climate era (December 1968, December 1972/2013 in western OR, November 1985, February 1989). The mid-Feb to mid-March period is a little different. We've had a reorganization in the wave train during that particular time of year since the turn of the 20th century. Major cold blasts (affecting both OR and WA) post-February 25 especially have gone from being a subdecadal occurrence to a once in a generation type thing. That's obviously not the case for Nov-Dec. In other words, you almost have to give late February cold waves like 1960/1962/2011 that handicap when comparing them to anything pre-1900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 The mid-Feb to mid-March period is a little different. We've had a reorganization in the wave train during that particular time of year since the turn of the 20th century. Major cold blasts (affecting both OR and WA) post-February 25 especially have gone from being a subdecadal occurrence to a once in a generation type thing. That's obviously not the case for Nov-Dec. In other words, you almost have to give late February cold waves like 1960/1962/2011 that handicap when comparing them to anything pre-1900. Yeah, applying for context it could very well be the most impressive arctic airmass of the 21st century thus far. December 2013, November 2010, and Halloween 2003 would probably be the other contenders, all in that late fall-early winter timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yeah, applying for context it could very well be the most impressive arctic airmass of the 21st century thus far. December 2013, November 2010, and Halloween 2003 would probably be the other contenders, all in that late fall-early winter timeframe. That's a tough call. I might also give February 2011 the nod simply because of the late-Feb timing. For Oregon alone, I still like Halloween 2002. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 That's a tough call. I might also give February 2011 the nod simply because of the late-Feb timing. For Oregon alone, I still like Halloween 2002. Halloween 2002 was impressive. Incredible radiational cooling. The 2002-06 stretch saw 3 major late October cold snaps in W. Oregon. Eugene set their all-time October low of 18 on 10/31/02 and broke it 4 years later with a low of 17. Personally I think December 2013 is incredibly underrated by most on this forum. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 That's a tough call. I might also give February 2011 the nod simply because of the late-Feb timing. For Oregon alone, I still like Halloween 2002. Definitely for lows and certainly for the eastern part of the region. The CAA wasn't quite impressive enough for most of WA and the westside though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 Halloween 2002 was impressive. Incredible radiational cooling. The 2002-06 stretch saw 3 major late October cold snaps in W. Oregon. Eugene set their all-time October low of 18 on 10/31/02 and broke it 4 years later with a low of 17. Personally I think December 2013 is incredibly underrated by most on this forum. I think mostly by the WA members. That cold wave was pretty underwhelming in the Seattle area. It was easily beaten by the likes of November 2010 up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 I think mostly by the WA members. That cold wave was pretty underwhelming in the Seattle area. It was easily beaten by the likes of November 2010 up there.The lack of snow in BC made it pretty forgettable. An inch of snow with 2 nights in the teens. Boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 Definitely for lows and certainly for the eastern part of the region. The CAA wasn't quite impressive enough for most of WA and the westside though. The gorge outflow on 10/30/2002 was pretty phenomenal for October though. E 40g48 and a dp of 3F at PDX. 2003 was definitely more impressive for duration of cold at the 850 level. We're basically talking two days (2002) vs. a full week (2003). The latter, of course, had highs in the 30's and lowland snowfall by early November while 2002 shot back into the 60's in the valley. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 The lack of snow in BC made it pretty forgettable. An inch of snow with 1 night in the teens. Boring. Exactly. All the action when south with that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 10, 2017 Report Share Posted September 10, 2017 The gorge outflow on 10/30/2002 was pretty phenomenal for October though. E 40g48 and a dp of 3F at PDX. 2003 was definitely more impressive for duration of cold at the 850 level. We're basically talking two days (2002) vs. a full week (2003). The latter, of course, had highs in the 30's and lowland snowfall by early November while 2002 shot back into the 60's in the valley. Had to look back for this area when you mentioned that kind of outflow and wow. Bozeman Airport pulled off a 12F / 3F day on the 30th and a 15F / -5F on the 31st. Frigid night for the trick-or-treaters! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 10, 2017 Report Share Posted September 10, 2017 March 1865, 1867, and 1870 would like a stern word with you. I hear late February 1890 is kind of upset as well. Long before PDX even existed. My comment was obviously referring to the modern era. Low of 5 at OLM on 2/25. You're not going to find many 20th or 21st century readings more impressive than that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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