Madtown Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just wishing this was tomorrow not pushed out to Thurs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Sunrise Ski Resort mountain cam as the daylight begins to emerge...it's located in the White Mountains about 200 miles to me East... https://www.sunrise.ski/winter/trails-and-camera/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 All i can hope for is a good set up on the back side with lake effect. Normal for here these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless. https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings. Edited December 12, 2022 by sholomar keloland graphics 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, sholomar said: There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless. https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings. Wow, what a beast of a storm for areas out west in Nebraska and South Dakota.. really hoping that this storm will cycle around next time for us posters to the east. Looking forward to getting some much-needed rain tonight and tomorrow, and maybe a little bit of wrap around snow later this week in Eastern Nebraska. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS and CMC are looking a bit weaker for the TC metro. I think the low is tracking more north so the wraparound is a bit north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 All models showing a nice snow event over this way, but just nervous as it seems to be not your normal storm and guessing we are gonna have 5 more changes between now and Thurs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Total snow for this system, per 12z Euro... Got a close up of the great lakes 12? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Not happy with models trending weaker around the TC but 6+ is still solid. Got a couple days yet for that to change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: You bet! The Euro just did what the RGEM was showing and bring a huge slug of GOM moisture into the cold sector. In fact, the 12z EPS just upped totals for the Northwoods of Wisco/MN and the Yoopers! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 For those interested in viewing webcams of this storm some nice ones are here... not all of them are in the best condition as of now but the Watertown and Rapid City ones are in good shape, as is the Sturgis 1 and Deadwood cams which should get some high snow totals. https://www.keloland.com/weather/live-cameras/ Just like yesterday we came in under the forecast high by 4 degrees with a bubble of cold air over the coteau des prairies and the temp being 28-29 degrees right now. Some light freezing drizzle is falling. Will be interested to see if it warms up to the forecast nighttime low of 31. A little history lesson: https://cdplodge.com/about/coteau-des-prairies-legendary/ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 The moisture we need 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Some freezing drizzle already with a very light glaze on most surfaces. 18z Euro is showing way more icing for Sioux Falls than it's previous run (0.01) which really sucks. Not a fan of ice storms in the slightest. One of the few weather phenomena that I'd rather not experience. They can be beautiful but at the same time a real pain in the a** at a minimum. Been in 3 bad ones and it ranks #2 least desirable wx event on my list right behind prolonged drought. My oldest sister lives in SD since the 80's and is included in the Bliz Warnings - a rarity for her town. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Latest HRRR is showing 0.53 of ice overnight. That's not good. How much wind are you expecting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Gusts in the 20s overnight building up to either side of 40 mph tomorrow morning and afternoon. Yikes! Lets hope it turns to snow quick. Good luck it's almost show time for ya. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z nam has a bunch freezing rain for u as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Thunder and lightning has begun. Has that spring smell at 46 degrees and a strong south wind 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Can't remember these guys using the "M" word before. To be honest, the coverage of headlines might rival Jan '78 so I concur. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 It can rain in Central Nebraska. Been a long time coming. IMG_0920.MOV 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 5 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. Happy for you and your area. Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Happy for you and your area. Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year. Thanks. Forecast says an inch tonight and a cold rain tomorrow that turns to snow showers. This is probably the best case scenario of moisture. Get the rain now and hope for snow before Christmas. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just made it up to the MN home. Pretty strong east wind. Looks like a WWA advisory for tomorrow for ice glazing and 2" of snow. Throw in 45mph wind gusts as well. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 0.65” as of 9:15 pm as more rounds of storms come up from the south. Should easily get over 1” tonight. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 34 degrees and a tstorm just moved through. Glorious weather indeed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Not sure this was mentioned in oax disco today….. on a sad note I’m sitting at .03” and praying the storms in Kansas train for all of central and eastern Nebraska through the night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 how goes it out there 12? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Nice rain this morning with some occasional thunder and lightning. Rainfall amounts look to be around 1 inch for me by the end of the day. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10" 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 system laying a dud here so far-- only .30" of QPF (rain) thus far. T-storms robbing moisture ?? Most guidance has just NW of DSM near .60" Qpf at this time hours back... This system is either going way N of forecast or occluding earlier --- or both. My hunch is the former. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Madtown said: All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10" I think you'll do better than a Foot...you guys look golden with the 2nd surge of moisture that comes in Wed PM into Thursday AM where it will Thump SN (2"+/hr)...could there be some convective activity??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Not a bad looking strengthening CO Low... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 06z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Got robbed out of some good moisture yet again. Received .14" over night as most of the showers either stayed to my west or east. Hoping we can buck this trend for the next storm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Never thought I could be happy with getting rain and thundershowers with temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's for a storm system in the middle of December, however that's the hand we have been dealt around here this year. So far I have picked up almost 0.75" of rainfall from this system. Now, can we please get some snow to go with the upcoming cold (0.1" so far this year isn't cutting it)??? 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 I think this is the most snow I have seen for a point forecast in Minnesota, 19-32" through Thursday night. I am skeptical of the high end, but if there is an area in minnesota that can do this, this is it. 1100 feet of orographic lift with flow coming straight off the lake... 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Currently inside the eye wall of this beast! The cloud formation is crazy! (Not sure why the pictures aren't just showing up??) Meanwhile this is going on out in western nebraska. Crazy all roads are closed. IMG_2223.pdf IMG_2221.pdf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Storm has been as much of a downer as I suspected it would be... but their models were surprisingly accurate. We are finally getting some snow minutes after I made this post. The days of them totally botching the storms when I was younger or even 5-10 years ago has really diminished. I must admit I'm impressed with the ability of models to predict these storms the last few years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Assuming rain is done here, I’ll end up with .87” of rain. Heaviest totals since beginning of September THREE MONTHS AGO. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 I was wrong on previous post about DSM area getting dry slotted. So far 1.21" at DSM. Brings monthly total to 1.56" -- 1.58" is normal, so unless less that .03 the rest of the month - this will be the 2nd month in a row with above normal precip. Yearly total stands and 30.16". 30 year avg is 36.02". DSM area avg back to 1879 is 32.57" -- so all in all-- really not that far behind climo. Now to just convert to snow over the next few weeks would be great.... 7 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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