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12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard


Tom

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There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

ice12-12.gif

snowcover1-1.webp

precip_outlook12-12.webp

snow-timeline12-12.gif

Edited by sholomar
keloland graphics
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20 minutes ago, sholomar said:

There's a bubble of cold air that's been hanging around SE SD from the dumping of snow we got a few days back that I hope helps us out. Granted that won't help with mid level warm air melting the snow, but it's great to see the snow totals trending upward regardless.

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/20221208-WinterSystem-CWA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/winter

They now have us getting 3 inches on the low end, 8 inches there's a 10% chance, along with .28" of ice in Brookings.

ice12-12.gif

snowcover1-1.webp

precip_outlook12-12.webp

snow-timeline12-12.gif

Wow, what a beast of a storm for areas out west in Nebraska and South Dakota.. really hoping that this storm will cycle around next time for us posters to the east.

Looking forward to getting some much-needed rain tonight and tomorrow, and maybe a little bit of wrap around snow later this week in Eastern Nebraska. 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

You bet!

12z great lakes end sat.png

The Euro just did what the RGEM was showing and bring a huge slug of GOM moisture into the cold sector.  In fact, the 12z EPS just upped totals for the Northwoods of Wisco/MN and the Yoopers!

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For those interested in viewing webcams of this storm some nice ones are here... not all of them are in the best condition as of now but the Watertown and Rapid City ones are in good shape, as is the Sturgis 1 and Deadwood cams which should get some high snow totals.

https://www.keloland.com/weather/live-cameras/

  Just like yesterday we came in under the forecast high by 4 degrees with a bubble of cold air over the coteau des prairies and the temp being 28-29 degrees right now.  Some light freezing drizzle is falling. Will be interested to see if it warms up to the forecast nighttime low of 31.

A little history lesson:  https://cdplodge.com/about/coteau-des-prairies-legendary/

 

 

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39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some freezing drizzle already with a very light glaze on most surfaces. 

18z Euro is showing way more icing for Sioux Falls than it's previous run (0.01) which really sucks. Not a fan of ice storms in the slightest. One of the few weather phenomena that I'd rather not experience.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-frzr_total-0972400.png

They can be beautiful but at the same time a real pain in the a** at a minimum. Been in 3 bad ones and it ranks #2 least desirable wx event on my list right behind prolonged drought. 

My oldest sister lives in SD since the 80's and is included in the Bliz Warnings - a rarity for her town. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Can't remember these guys using the "M" word before. To be honest, the coverage of headlines might rival Jan '78 so I concur. 

image.png.b4c2f09e3e3712a47e51ea9148675e1a.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Continues to pour rain here. Heaviest rain since probably a storm in July. Very sharp lightning and loud thunder. Rain gauge says over 0.50” so far. 

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Happy for you and your area.  Looks like you have a good chance to push it over an inch tonight which is a great rain for this time of year.

Thanks. Forecast says an inch tonight and a cold rain tomorrow that turns to snow showers. This is probably the best case scenario of moisture. Get the rain now and hope for snow before Christmas. 

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system laying a dud here so far-- only .30" of QPF (rain) thus far. T-storms robbing moisture ?? Most guidance has just NW of DSM near .60" Qpf at this time hours back...  This system is either going way N of forecast or occluding earlier --- or both.  My hunch is the former.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, Madtown said:

All models still showing 12" plus here...local and nws going with 5-10"

I think you'll do better than a Foot...you guys look golden with the 2nd surge of moisture that comes in Wed PM into Thursday AM where it will Thump SN (2"+/hr)...could there be some convective activity???  

image.png

 

 

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Never thought I could be happy with getting rain and thundershowers with temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's for a storm system in the middle of December, however that's the hand we have been dealt around here this year. So far I have picked up almost 0.75" of rainfall from this system. 

Now, can we please get some snow to go with the upcoming cold (0.1" so far this year isn't cutting it)???

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Storm has been as much of a downer as I suspected it would be... but their models were surprisingly accurate. We are finally getting some snow minutes after I made this post. The days of them totally botching the storms when I was younger or even 5-10 years ago has really diminished. I must admit I'm impressed with the ability of models to predict these storms the last few years.

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I was wrong on previous post about DSM area getting dry slotted.  So far 1.21" at DSM.  Brings monthly total to 1.56" -- 1.58" is normal, so unless less that .03 the rest of the month - this will be the 2nd month in a row with above normal precip.

Yearly total stands and 30.16". 30 year avg is 36.02". DSM area  avg back to 1879 is 32.57" -- so all in all-- really not that far behind climo. Now to just convert to snow over the next few weeks would be great....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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