Clinton Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 So far I have received .70 inches of rain today. A broken line of storms is forming along the cold front so there is a chance I could receive more. Otherwise drizzle and fog will last through the evening. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Sometimes funny stuff just happens 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 man this thing is a beast. It is downright nasty out there! Wish it was a bit more wintery for E IA but fun to track nonetheless. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Still being cautiously optimistic that this might happen up this way 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday. If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday. If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses. I believe that "North Shore" region of MN already scored one big LES storm. This would be their 2nd (and much bigger) hit. That place is on a roll. Edit - NWS map has some small regions with 30-36" on their snowfall map, and that's only thru 6 pm Thur! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Yeah NAM. I wish. Gotta go in and have your thermals checked and re-calibrated. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday @Stacsh Heads-up! "Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday Anybody who is on the roads in southern WI and maybe far northern IL tomorrow night/early Thursday is going to be in for a little surprise. Rapidly changing conditions as the column dynamically cools. It may go from rain to heavy snow very fast. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning. Did all your previous snow get wipe away? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Light freezing rain atm here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 This storm has under-performed here. Models predicted rain in the 0.70-1.00" range, but we ended up with only 0.56". Since late yesterday it has been mostly drizzle. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so. Nice! Snow on Snow is a win win scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Currently in a winter storm watch for 3-7". Warning just 1 county to my east! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 My rain total with this is impressive. 1.01 inches rain in less than 20 hours, not bad for December here. Some areas to my west and sw maybe near 2 inches. Ground wasnt frozen at all so was a vitally important sys to help end the drought. Im at 1.39 precip for December do in the past 90 days since about Sept 12th Im at about 12 inches of precip! Significantly above normal! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours? I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models. I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there. I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow. The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band. The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa. The NAM is the furthest east/north. Will be fun to see it play out. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Had about a half inch of wet snow overnight. Now we're in a lull. Kind of the calm before the storm feeling today. 35 cloudy and a bit of a mild feel in the air today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 56 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours? I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at. FV-3 or the RAP do pretty good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Euro brings several rotating bands of snow through northeast Iowa. I have an arrow pointing to about where my parents live and where I'll be on Saturday. If the Euro even comes close to verifying, we'll have some happy kids. Even all the way down to Iowa City, the Euro drops an inch, which would be great to see some snow on the ground and get rid of this dreary rainy/muddy landscape we have around here. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models. I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there. I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow. The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band. The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa. The NAM is the furthest east/north. Will be fun to see it play out. Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, BMT said: Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well. You're right, every run successively is drifting west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours. Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Not liking the trends over this way....went from 12 to 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, gosaints said: What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours. Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update. Welcome back bud! Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tom said: Welcome back bud! Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm... Thanks. Going to be a realtively interesting night. Tough forecast as critical thinckneses are right on the edge. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z HRRR is the best run for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The 18z Nam is gonna spit out some serious slop. Literal concrete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! 4-7" 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 18z NAM and 3kNAM both show ground whitening snow for CR too. would be a nice surprise if this pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Perhaps the best winter mood enhancer is when NWS doubles your prediction. Was satisfied with 4" but excited with the chance at 8" 2 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The amount of super cells this storm is producing is insane! This tornado warned cell is heading into New Orleans. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Radar is pretty incredible. Moisture fetch all the way from deep into the gulf. This thing is covering a lot of territory. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Truly an incredible shift this late in the game....Enjoy the surprise everyone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Impressive 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Even ORD getting in the act Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 829 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 ILZ003-004-008-010-011-150930- Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, Dixon, DeKalb, and Sycamore 829 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...Probable Period of Wet Snow Before Precipitation Ends... Steady, soaking rain is expected to transition to a wet snow near midnight as temperatures cool across portions of far northern and north central Illinois, including Belvidere, Byron, DeKalb, Dixon, and Rockford. The snow will likely be heavy for a brief period resulting in slushy accumulation before ending near 4 A.M. Total accumulation on the higher end could be one to three inches, while on the lower end, just a dusting on grass. The heavier rates are expected to overcome warmer pavement temperatures and result in some roads seeing slushy accumulation. With temperatures after the snow through daybreak holding steady around freezing, some of this slushy accumulation will likely stick into the morning commute. If traveling overnight, plan for probable periods of sharply reduced visibility and some slowed travel. Allow extra travel time, including for the morning commute Thursday due to any lingering slush. $$ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 41 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Impressive I'm super impressed with the size of this thing. Moisture coming from the deep gulf. There were tornadoes and severe storms along the gulf coast. The northern edge has snow almost to central Canada. All from the same cyclone. Weather is powerful. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, james1976 said: I'm super impressed with the size of this thing. Moisture coming from the deep gulf. There were tornadoes and severe storms along the gulf coast. The northern edge has snow almost to central Canada. All from the same cyclone. Weather is powerful. Brings back memories of when these monster systems were much more common for the GL's. Talking about the 60's/70's/80's. January was always the big month around here, and lately it has been mostly void of big storms. Talking post-2014. I think that may have been the last season to feature a big storm in January. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 P'cool watching the RN switch-over to SN in about all of WI 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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