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12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard


Tom

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Sometimes funny stuff just happens

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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40 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

Screenshot_20221213-211713.png

I believe that "North Shore" region of MN already scored one big LES storm. This would be their 2nd (and much bigger) hit. That place is on a roll. 

Edit - NWS map has some small regions with 30-36" on their snowfall map, and that's only thru 6 pm Thur!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yeah NAM. I wish. Gotta go in and have your thermals checked and re-calibrated. 

namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

@Stacsh Heads-up!

"Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

Anybody who is on the roads in southern WI and maybe far northern IL tomorrow night/early Thursday is going to be in for a little surprise.  Rapidly changing conditions as the column dynamically cools.  It may go from rain to heavy snow very fast.

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36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-1321600-1.png

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

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This storm has under-performed here.  Models predicted rain in the 0.70-1.00" range, but we ended up with only 0.56".  Since late yesterday it has been mostly drizzle.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

Nice!  Snow on Snow is a win win scenario.

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My rain total with this is impressive.  1.01 inches rain in less than 20 hours, not bad for December  here. Some areas to my west and sw maybe near 2 inches. Ground  wasnt frozen at all so was a vitally important  sys to help end the drought. Im at 1.39 precip for December  do in the past 90 days since about Sept 12th Im at about 12 inches of precip! Significantly  above normal!

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This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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56 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

FV-3 or the RAP do pretty good...

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Euro brings several rotating bands of snow through northeast Iowa.  I have an arrow pointing to about where my parents live and where I'll be on Saturday.  If the Euro even comes close to verifying, we'll have some happy kids.  Even all the way down to Iowa City, the Euro drops an inch, which would be great to see some snow on the ground and get rid of this dreary rainy/muddy landscape we have around here.  

 

 

image.thumb.png.a2afad59b9f55802a1d29ad03f520827.png

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well.  

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32 minutes ago, gosaints said:

What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours.  Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update.

Welcome back bud!  Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm...

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Impressive

1867876910_22-12-149pmUSHazards.png.eb4cab4a7885a62c995aa72c940f08b7.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Even ORD getting in the act

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
829 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

ILZ003-004-008-010-011-150930-
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon,
Byron, Dixon, DeKalb, and Sycamore
829 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...Probable Period of Wet Snow Before Precipitation Ends...

Steady, soaking rain is expected to transition to a wet snow near
midnight as temperatures cool across portions of far northern
and north central Illinois, including Belvidere, Byron, DeKalb,
Dixon, and Rockford. The snow will likely be heavy for a brief
period resulting in slushy accumulation before ending near 4 A.M.
Total accumulation on the higher end could be one to three
inches, while on the lower end, just a dusting on grass.

The heavier rates are expected to overcome warmer pavement
temperatures and result in some roads seeing slushy accumulation.
With temperatures after the snow through daybreak holding steady
around freezing, some of this slushy accumulation will likely
stick into the morning commute.

If traveling overnight, plan for probable periods of sharply
reduced visibility and some slowed travel. Allow extra travel
time, including for the morning commute Thursday due to any
lingering slush.

$$
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Impressive

1867876910_22-12-149pmUSHazards.png.eb4cab4a7885a62c995aa72c940f08b7.png

I'm super impressed with the size of this thing. Moisture coming from the deep gulf. There were tornadoes and severe storms along the gulf coast. The northern edge has snow almost to central Canada. All from the same cyclone. Weather is powerful.

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Just now, james1976 said:

I'm super impressed with the size of this thing. Moisture coming from the deep gulf. There were tornadoes and severe storms along the gulf coast. The northern edge has snow almost to central Canada. All from the same cyclone. Weather is powerful.

Brings back memories of when these monster systems were much more common for the GL's. Talking about the 60's/70's/80's. January was always the big month around here, and lately it has been mostly void of big storms. Talking post-2014. I think that may have been the last season to feature a big storm in January. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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P'cool watching the RN switch-over to SN in about all of WI

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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