12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

[Bryan1117]

Never thought I could be happy with getting rain and thundershowers with temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's for a storm system in the middle of December, however that's the hand we have been dealt around here this year. So far I have picked up almost 0.75" of rainfall from this system. 

Now, can we please get some snow to go with the upcoming cold (0.1" so far this year isn't cutting it)???

[Beltrami Island]

I think this is the most snow I have seen for a point forecast in Minnesota, 19-32" through Thursday night. I am skeptical of the high end, but if there is an area in minnesota that can do this, this is it.  1100 feet of orographic lift with flow coming straight off the lake... 

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

A very cold 33 degree moderate rain with some sleet/snowflakes mixing in right now.

This was so close to being a big snowstorm here. Cards just didn't quite fall our way.

[gabel23]

Currently inside the eye wall of this beast! The cloud formation is crazy! (Not sure why the pictures aren't just showing up??)

 

 

Meanwhile this is going on out in western nebraska. Crazy all roads are closed. 

 

 

 

 

 

IMG_2223.pdf IMG_2221.pdf

[sholomar]

Storm has been as much of a downer as I suspected it would be... but their models were surprisingly accurate. We are finally getting some snow minutes after I made this post. The days of them totally botching the storms when I was younger or even 5-10 years ago has really diminished. I must admit I'm impressed with the ability of models to predict these storms the last few years.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Well look at what the updated NWS totals are now calling for in Sioux Falls. Looks familiar.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Assuming rain is done here, I’ll end up with .87” of rain. Heaviest totals since beginning of September THREE MONTHS AGO.

[Grizzcoat]

I was wrong on previous post about DSM area getting dry slotted.  So far 1.21" at DSM.  Brings monthly total to 1.56" -- 1.58" is normal, so unless less that .03 the rest of the month - this will be the 2nd month in a row with above normal precip.

Yearly total stands and 30.16". 30 year avg is 36.02". DSM area  avg back to 1879 is 32.57" -- so all in all-- really not that far behind climo. Now to just convert to snow over the next few weeks would be great....

[Clinton]

So far I have received .70 inches of rain today.  A broken line of storms is forming along the cold front so there is a chance I could receive more.  Otherwise drizzle and fog will last through the evening.

[jaster220]

Sometimes funny stuff just happens

[BMT]

man this thing is a beast.  It is downright nasty out there!  Wish it was a bit more wintery for E IA but fun to track nonetheless.  

[Madtown]

Still being cautiously optimistic that this might happen up this way

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Beltrami Island]

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

[jaster220]

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

[hawkstwelve]

 

[jaster220]

40 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

I believe that "North Shore" region of MN already scored one big LES storm. This would be their 2nd (and much bigger) hit. That place is on a roll. 

Edit - NWS map has some small regions with 30-36" on their snowfall map, and that's only thru 6 pm Thur!

[jaster220]

Yeah NAM. I wish. Gotta go in and have your thermals checked and re-calibrated. 

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

@Stacsh Heads-up!

"Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

Anybody who is on the roads in southern WI and maybe far northern IL tomorrow night/early Thursday is going to be in for a little surprise.  Rapidly changing conditions as the column dynamically cools.  It may go from rain to heavy snow very fast.

[hawkstwelve]

Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

[Tom]

36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

[hawkstwelve]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

[Madtown]

Light freezing rain atm here

[Hawkeye]

This storm has under-performed here.  Models predicted rain in the 0.70-1.00" range, but we ended up with only 0.56".  Since late yesterday it has been mostly drizzle.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

Nice!  Snow on Snow is a win win scenario.

[james1976]

Currently in a winter storm watch for 3-7". Warning just 1 county to my east!

[OttumwaSnomow]

My rain total with this is impressive.  1.01 inches rain in less than 20 hours, not bad for December  here. Some areas to my west and sw maybe near 2 inches. Ground  wasnt frozen at all so was a vitally important  sys to help end the drought. Im at 1.39 precip for December  do in the past 90 days since about Sept 12th Im at about 12 inches of precip! Significantly  above normal!

[Beltrami Island]

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

[bud2380]

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Had about a half inch of wet snow overnight. Now we're in a lull. Kind of the calm before the storm feeling today. 35 cloudy and a bit of a mild feel in the air today.

[Tom]

56 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

FV-3 or the RAP do pretty good...

[hawkstwelve]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

Kind of anecdotal but with the winter system that moved through at the end of November the HRRR and HRDPS were the two mesoscale models that got closest to what actually occurred, both ending up within about 2 inches of actual totals.

[bud2380]

Euro brings several rotating bands of snow through northeast Iowa.  I have an arrow pointing to about where my parents live and where I'll be on Saturday.  If the Euro even comes close to verifying, we'll have some happy kids.  Even all the way down to Iowa City, the Euro drops an inch, which would be great to see some snow on the ground and get rid of this dreary rainy/muddy landscape we have around here.  

 

 

[BMT]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

 

 

 

Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well.  

[bud2380]

9 minutes ago, BMT said:

Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well.  

You're right, every run successively is drifting west.  

 

[gosaints]

What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours.  Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update.

[Madtown]

Not liking the trends over this way....went from 12 to 6

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, gosaints said:

What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours.  Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update.

Welcome back bud!  Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm...

[gosaints]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome back bud!  Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm...

Thanks.  Going to be a realtively interesting night.  Tough forecast as critical thinckneses are right on the edge.  

[bud2380]

18z HRRR is the best run for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids yet.  

 

[gosaints]

The 18z Nam is gonna spit out some serious slop.  Literal concrete.

[james1976]

Just been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! 4-7"

[BMT]

18z NAM and 3kNAM both show ground whitening snow for CR too.  would be a nice surprise if this pans out.   

[Snowshoe]

Perhaps the best winter mood enhancer is when NWS doubles your prediction. Was satisfied with 4" but excited with the chance at 8"

[hawkstwelve]

Just got put under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6AM-6PM tomorrow. Calling for 2-5 inches with gusts as high as 45 mph.

We have received a little over an inch today with the heaviest snow of the event falling over the past 45 minutes or so. Most models only showed up to 0.4-.08 inches today so I'm considering this an overperformer so far!

[gabel23]

The amount of super cells this storm is producing is insane! This tornado warned cell is heading into New Orleans. 

[james1976]

Radar is pretty incredible. Moisture fetch all the way from deep into the gulf. This thing is covering a lot of territory.