12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard

[bud2380]

Euro brings several rotating bands of snow through northeast Iowa.  I have an arrow pointing to about where my parents live and where I'll be on Saturday.  If the Euro even comes close to verifying, we'll have some happy kids.  Even all the way down to Iowa City, the Euro drops an inch, which would be great to see some snow on the ground and get rid of this dreary rainy/muddy landscape we have around here.  

 

 

[BMT]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

 

 

 

Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well.  

[bud2380]

9 minutes ago, BMT said:

Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well.  

You're right, every run successively is drifting west.  

 

[gosaints]

What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours.  Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update.

[Madtown]

Not liking the trends over this way....went from 12 to 6

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, gosaints said:

What an interesting evolution to watch the next 48 hours.  Guessing advisory get expanded west in the afternoon update.

Welcome back bud!  Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm...

[gosaints]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome back bud!  Was thinking about you a few days ago when posting on this storm...

Thanks.  Going to be a realtively interesting night.  Tough forecast as critical thinckneses are right on the edge.  

[bud2380]

18z HRRR is the best run for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids yet.  

 

[gosaints]

The 18z Nam is gonna spit out some serious slop.  Literal concrete.

[james1976]

Just been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! 4-7"

[BMT]

18z NAM and 3kNAM both show ground whitening snow for CR too.  would be a nice surprise if this pans out.   

[Snowshoe]

Perhaps the best winter mood enhancer is when NWS doubles your prediction. Was satisfied with 4" but excited with the chance at 8"

[gabel23]

The amount of super cells this storm is producing is insane! This tornado warned cell is heading into New Orleans. 

[james1976]

Radar is pretty incredible. Moisture fetch all the way from deep into the gulf. This thing is covering a lot of territory. 

[Madtown]

Truly an incredible shift this late in the game....Enjoy the surprise everyone. 

[jaster220]

Impressive

[jaster220]

Even ORD getting in the act

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
829 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

ILZ003-004-008-010-011-150930-
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon,
Byron, Dixon, DeKalb, and Sycamore
829 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...Probable Period of Wet Snow Before Precipitation Ends...

Steady, soaking rain is expected to transition to a wet snow near
midnight as temperatures cool across portions of far northern
and north central Illinois, including Belvidere, Byron, DeKalb,
Dixon, and Rockford. The snow will likely be heavy for a brief
period resulting in slushy accumulation before ending near 4 A.M.
Total accumulation on the higher end could be one to three
inches, while on the lower end, just a dusting on grass.

The heavier rates are expected to overcome warmer pavement
temperatures and result in some roads seeing slushy accumulation.
With temperatures after the snow through daybreak holding steady
around freezing, some of this slushy accumulation will likely
stick into the morning commute.

If traveling overnight, plan for probable periods of sharply
reduced visibility and some slowed travel. Allow extra travel
time, including for the morning commute Thursday due to any
lingering slush.

$$

[james1976]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Impressive

I'm super impressed with the size of this thing. Moisture coming from the deep gulf. There were tornadoes and severe storms along the gulf coast. The northern edge has snow almost to central Canada. All from the same cyclone. Weather is powerful.

[jaster220]

Just now, james1976 said:

I'm super impressed with the size of this thing. Moisture coming from the deep gulf. There were tornadoes and severe storms along the gulf coast. The northern edge has snow almost to central Canada. All from the same cyclone. Weather is powerful.

Brings back memories of when these monster systems were much more common for the GL's. Talking about the 60's/70's/80's. January was always the big month around here, and lately it has been mostly void of big storms. Talking post-2014. I think that may have been the last season to feature a big storm in January. 

[jaster220]

P'cool watching the RN switch-over to SN in about all of WI

[Clinton]

Pattern due to repeat in late Jan or early February.  The jet will be even stronger then, it's hard to imagine this storm having a stronger version but it might.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

If you knew, what would you do? Remember this storm. This year's #LRC predicts that this storm will return in late January or early February. So, remember this date. There is currently, as of 7:25 AM, a Tornado Warning near Dallas, TX, and a Blizzard Warning over a large area!

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Pattern due to repeat in late Jan or early February.  The jet will be even stronger then, it's hard to imagine this storm having a stronger version but it might.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

If you knew, what would you do? Remember this storm. This year's #LRC predicts that this storm will return in late January or early February. So, remember this date. There is currently, as of 7:25 AM, a Tornado Warning near Dallas, TX, and a Blizzard Warning over a large area!

I think it depends on if it is timed with tele-connections that give it the cold air needed to go big. If it cycles through in a warmer regime, won't be as impressive imo. 

[james1976]

Received 0.57" of rain so far from this system according to my weather station. All while in the mid 30s. So close but so far away. Did pick up about half inch of wet snow last night though...but that's all gone now. 

Temp is down to 34 now. That slug of moisture about to move in means business. Dynamic cooling will transition it to snow. Looks like a heavy wet snow. 

[Hoosier]

There's a zone of 40-50 mph wind gusts in central IL right now to the south of the developing secondary surface low.  Those winds may get in here later as the low passes by my area.

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Pattern due to repeat in late Jan or early February.  The jet will be even stronger then, it's hard to imagine this storm having a stronger version but it might.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

If you knew, what would you do? Remember this storm. This year's #LRC predicts that this storm will return in late January or early February. So, remember this date. There is currently, as of 7:25 AM, a Tornado Warning near Dallas, TX, and a Blizzard Warning over a large area!

Yup!  Gary is thinking the same thing I was a couple days ago.  This storm should cycle around Ground Hog Day.

[Tom]

Duluth, MN...I saved this a little bit ago and forgot to post...Blitz conditions no doubt...

[Tom]

@Grizzcoat...33" snow depth

[james1976]

Just measured 2.8" but it may have compacted some. It is a very wet heavy snow. I've been bumped up to 5-8" now with the morning update.

[Hawkeye]

Madison, Wisconsin did pretty well, picking up about 4".  The NWS never really had them getting much.

[gabel23]

Omaha and points along the Missouri river are currently getting hit by some moderate snow. They might pick up 1-2" of snow by the time things are done. 

[gabel23]

Meanwhile areas in western nebraska and the panhandle are over 48 hours being in a Blizzard Warning. Roads have also been closed for two days. The pictures I have seen near Chadron are incredible. Someone might be close to 3 ft by the time all is said and done. Just an amazing storm system and one for the record books for Western Nebraska. 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Meanwhile areas in western nebraska and the panhandle are over 48 hours being in a Blizzard Warning. Roads have also been closed for two days. The pictures I have seen near Chadron are incredible. Someone might be close to 3 ft by the time all is said and done. Just an amazing storm system and one for the record books for Western Nebraska. 

As we sit here with brown ground.  Mother nature can sure be cruel.

[Tony]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

As we sit here with brown ground.  Mother nature can sure be cruel.

Same here but the way winter has gone the past several years, really have not expected much snow for December anyways. Have been back loaded winters for these parts but things are looking up for maybe a White Christmas for most of this sub. Those farther north are a guarantee and if the 0z Euro comes to reality, it's game on for those a little farther south,

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Grizzcoat...33" snow depth

A good stretch of 30"+ showing up on here...  

[sholomar]

Now we're getting some snow... looks like a couple of fresh inches with maybe 3-4 more inches coming. Looking at the positives had we got dumped on with snow through the whole even I wouldn't have been able to take the nice 5 mile jog around the parks during the break yesterday. That was nice. Will be too cold for cardio for awhile now.  I have off so I can relax and enjoy it falling today.

 

DOT webcam outside Brookings caught a couple of median crashes.

[james1976]

Up to 3.8" but likely more with compaction

[Bryan1117]

Picked up about an inch of snow this morning from the wraparound here in the Omaha metro. Roads were a complete mess with lots of accidents.

It seems like people around here completely forgot how to drive in the snow - who can blame them with this recent pattern, LOL? I will say that seeing the ground covered in a thin layer of white gold brightens up my mood a little bit as it's looking a little bit more like December out there, finally! 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Came down pretty decent for a bit but at the worst time with morning rush.

Maybe 1/2-3/4” of snow on the ground 

[Bellona]

Only had nuisance flurries so far in Waterloo. Looks like some nicer returns should come in within a few hours. 

[Stacsh]

Me waiting for the lake effect to kick in Friday through Sunday 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Came down pretty decent for a bit but at the worst time with morning rush.

Maybe 1/2-3/4” of snow on the ground 

The morning commute was definitely a dumpster fire around here. It looks like most of the metro area should get around an inch or maybe a bit more from this system. Radar is showing more snow showers filling back in up north, which should keep light snow going into later this afternoon.

[gabel23]

Nice little snow squall going through at the moment! Snow is blowing and have some fatties falling! Brings a bit of a smile to my face. 

[Grizzcoat]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

@Grizzcoat...33" snow depth

I know the COOP observer there.

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

DSM area over performing on this one. Never was supposed to be much, but radar looks decent and will likely end up with 2-3". Not bad. Could be much worse as the brown is down! And covered with white Gold!

[FV-Mike]

Snowing now. accumulating on the grassy areas. not expecting much but the radar is interesting 

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

DSM area over performing on this one. Never was supposed to be much, but radar looks decent and will likely end up with 2-3". Not bad. Could be much worse as the brown is down! And covered with white Gold!

Des Moines is 100 miles due west of me, but they always significantly out perform in snow.  Its remarkable.  The radar looks great out that way.  I'm hoping it rotates over to eastern Iowa without falling apart.  

[james1976]

Been melting as it snows for the last few hours now so idk what our total will be. If it were a couple degrees colder we really could have had some big totals.

[gabel23]

This is just unreal. Almost the entire state of both North and South Dakota are in blizzard warnings. This storm has been a blizzard for days and will continue as one. Don't think I can recall anything like this. 

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This is just unreal. Almost the entire state of both North and South Dakota are in blizzard warnings. This storm has been a blizzard for days and will continue as one. Don't think I can recall anything like this. 

You start to dream of when this thing cycles back through in late Jan. or early February, and where it might go.  Would love to experience something like this around here.

[james1976]

My weather station has the barometric pressure down to 29.26. Wow.

WWA now in effect til 9pm. Started snowing harder and the temp has dropped from 34 to 32. Might see some accumulations again heading into the evening.