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12/12 - 12/16 Upper MW Blizzard


Tom

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Never thought I could be happy with getting rain and thundershowers with temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's for a storm system in the middle of December, however that's the hand we have been dealt around here this year. So far I have picked up almost 0.75" of rainfall from this system. 

Now, can we please get some snow to go with the upcoming cold (0.1" so far this year isn't cutting it)???

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Storm has been as much of a downer as I suspected it would be... but their models were surprisingly accurate. We are finally getting some snow minutes after I made this post. The days of them totally botching the storms when I was younger or even 5-10 years ago has really diminished. I must admit I'm impressed with the ability of models to predict these storms the last few years.

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I was wrong on previous post about DSM area getting dry slotted.  So far 1.21" at DSM.  Brings monthly total to 1.56" -- 1.58" is normal, so unless less that .03 the rest of the month - this will be the 2nd month in a row with above normal precip.

Yearly total stands and 30.16". 30 year avg is 36.02". DSM area  avg back to 1879 is 32.57" -- so all in all-- really not that far behind climo. Now to just convert to snow over the next few weeks would be great....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Sometimes funny stuff just happens

image.png.340fffb504a59b6fde260c48760a2a5e.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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40 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Point forecast for the same spot I posted before ups the total to 23-36" plus 2-4" more on Friday.

If I were reading this blind I would be crazy to guess it is anywhere in Minnesota. Pacific Northwest, or someplace just above Valdez AK would be reasonable guesses.

Screenshot_20221213-211713.png

I believe that "North Shore" region of MN already scored one big LES storm. This would be their 2nd (and much bigger) hit. That place is on a roll. 

Edit - NWS map has some small regions with 30-36" on their snowfall map, and that's only thru 6 pm Thur!

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yeah NAM. I wish. Gotta go in and have your thermals checked and re-calibrated. 

namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

@Stacsh Heads-up!

"Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM wants to give Chicago Peeps some mood flakes at a minimum early Friday

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_32.png

Anybody who is on the roads in southern WI and maybe far northern IL tomorrow night/early Thursday is going to be in for a little surprise.  Rapidly changing conditions as the column dynamically cools.  It may go from rain to heavy snow very fast.

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Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-1321600-1.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well after freezing rain on Monday and then a bunch of plain ol rain yesterday - the third and final phase of the storm has started with p-type changing to snow and a dusting on the ground so far. Models backed off yesterday to showing only a couple inches falling but have since rebounded with the 06z Euro showing 5.5 inches by Saturday morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-1321600-1.png

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Did all your previous snow get wipe away?

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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This storm has under-performed here.  Models predicted rain in the 0.70-1.00" range, but we ended up with only 0.56".  Since late yesterday it has been mostly drizzle.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Luckily no! We somehow made it through yesterday's heavy rain with snow still on the ground. You can see a bit more of the grass in my yard in some spots because of my dogs running around everywhere but my neighbor's yard (no dogs, no kids) is still completely covered. I'd say on average we still have a couple inches or so.

Nice!  Snow on Snow is a win win scenario.

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My rain total with this is impressive.  1.01 inches rain in less than 20 hours, not bad for December  here. Some areas to my west and sw maybe near 2 inches. Ground  wasnt frozen at all so was a vitally important  sys to help end the drought. Im at 1.39 precip for December  do in the past 90 days since about Sept 12th Im at about 12 inches of precip! Significantly  above normal!

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This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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56 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

FV-3 or the RAP do pretty good...

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

So what is the best mesoscale model for snowfall out to 24-48 hours?  I see a bunch on tropical tidbits and pivotal weather but usually winter snow system move so fast by me they are not very accurate or worth looking at.  

Kind of anecdotal but with the winter system that moved through at the end of November the HRRR and HRDPS were the two mesoscale models that got closest to what actually occurred, both ending up within about 2 inches of actual totals.

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Euro brings several rotating bands of snow through northeast Iowa.  I have an arrow pointing to about where my parents live and where I'll be on Saturday.  If the Euro even comes close to verifying, we'll have some happy kids.  Even all the way down to Iowa City, the Euro drops an inch, which would be great to see some snow on the ground and get rid of this dreary rainy/muddy landscape we have around here.  

 

 

image.thumb.png.a2afad59b9f55802a1d29ad03f520827.png

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Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

This secondary band of precip currently down in MO really means business as it tracks north. I'm hoping it tracks a bit further west than currently progged by the models.  I'll be in northeast Iowa this weekend at my parents place and some models are showing several inches up there.  I'd like to see at least a few inches, so the kids can get out and play in the snow.  The Canadian models are the furthest west in Iowa with that heavy snow band.  The GFS rides right along the Mississippi River in NE Iowa.  The NAM is the furthest east/north.  Will be fun to see it play out. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Latest HRRR is creeping westward as well.  

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Just got put under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6AM-6PM tomorrow. Calling for 2-5 inches with gusts as high as 45 mph.

We have received a little over an inch today with the heaviest snow of the event falling over the past 45 minutes or so. Most models only showed up to 0.4-.08 inches today so I'm considering this an overperformer so far! :)

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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