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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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The last month of met summer is here. It's starting off as a scorcher too!

How will it all play out in the end...

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.0", 01/12

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Guest Sounder

This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning.    Its heading far to the south and southwest.

 

smokec29_conus.png

 

Could keep daytime temps down at least. Maybe not all bad.

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Does it go beyond 1 day? Looks like Portland south stays mostly in the clear, which should allow them to maximize temps tomorrow.

 

Only goes out through late tomorrow night.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240.

MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger.

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Yeah, not sure what poor Jess is looking at. Meteostar output shows a cool 95 for Monday's high.

Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

 

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

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Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

 

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

 

At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s.

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MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger.

 

Some sort of marine intrusion is pretty likely in the next 10 days (there's a reason we've only had 10 straight 90 days once, of course). Though I wouldn't trust the models to pick up on the precise timing of mesoscale details like that a full week out.

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Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

 

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

Using the KISS approach, looks like low to mid 90's to me. Models seem insistent on sharpening the ridge a bit as the offshore low deepens.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Hey Tim, 12z Euro output when available por favor. I'm in the mood for an anxiety attack.

 

Waiting for it to finish loading the output section.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke is pretty visible on a lot of Puget Sound webcams now. Almost certainly going to lead to underwhelming numbers for a heatwave that otherwise may have challenged all-time records.

 

Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

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The more simple output guidance is not loading but here is a more detailed look at the PDX guidance from the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Unfortunately it is showing a total of zero snow in the next 10 days.   :(     (Also zero precipitation).  

 

KPDX_2017080112_dx_240.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

 

I wonder if smoke could explain the difference between Salem and Portland during some of those 1920s-30s heatwaves. I always thought Salem's thermometer was a bit overexposed during that era, but now I'm wondering if Portland could have had smokey skies while Salem was clear on some of those days.

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Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

 

Smoke definitely seemed like it was a lot more common back then.

 

I just clicked on a totally random July (1922) original observation form from Vancouver and wasn't surprised to see it mentioned

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-FE57690F-F057-40EB-9E1D-B89AC0E2CA29.pdf

 

It looks like it says there in the remarks "It was more or less smoky during the latter quarter of the month".

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I wonder if smoke could explain the difference between Salem and Portland during some of those 1920s-30s heatwaves. I always thought Salem's thermometer was a bit overexposed during that era, but now I'm wondering if Portland could have had smokey skies while Salem was clear on some of those days.

 

That's an interesting thought. In theory, Salem's weather station should have been top-notch, since proximity to transportation/shipping routes is what determined if a COOP observer received the proper sheltering equipment or not (Salem was a COOP station in the 1920's as opposed to a Weather Bureau station). It's funny, but in the early days the Weather Bureau would simply tell far-flung COOP observers to build their own shelters since shipping was too expensive. I'm pretty sure that's the biggest reason why there are so many bogus warm readings at small-town COOP stations from that era. Back to the point, Salem should have had the proper equipment...but at the same time they do have a number of readings from that era that look suspect. So I don't know. 

 

With regards to Salem's supposed 108 degree reading on 7/23/1927 (since that one really jumps out), I don't think there was smoke since Bull Run Headworks hit 106 that day and Cascade Locks reached 103. It definitely seems overexposed since Portland was 101 and Eugene was 97 on that day. McMinnville shows 107 on that day but their obs were garbage during that era. In fact, because McMinnville shows 107 it makes me think the real maximum there was something like 102-103.  :lol:

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Smoke definitely seemed like it was a lot more common back then.

 

I just clicked on a totally random July (1922) original observation form from Vancouver and wasn't surprised to see it mentioned

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-FE57690F-F057-40EB-9E1D-B89AC0E2CA29.pdf

 

It looks like it says there in the remarks "It was more or less smoky during the latter quarter of the month".

 

That word is not "quarter".   It appears to be "portion".  

 

Not sure of the word before it though... sort of looks like 'larger'.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke definitely seemed like it was a lot more common back then.

 

I just clicked on a totally random July (1922) original observation form from Vancouver and wasn't surprised to see it mentioned

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-FE57690F-F057-40EB-9E1D-B89AC0E2CA29.pdf

 

It looks like it says there in the remarks "It was more or less smoky during the latter quarter of the month".

 

It would be interesting to run some sort of correlation analysis for max temperatures between known clear days in Medford and known clear days in Portland during JJA in that era. And then apply it to days when Medford was clear and Portland reported smoke, to see what the theoretical clear-sky maximum would have been. 

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That word is not "quarter".   It appears to be "portion".  

 

Not sure of the word before it though... sort of looks like 'larger'.

 

Ah, yeah, that would make sense too. I also thought that first word might have said larger but then read it as "larger quarter of the month" which wouldn't have been right.

 

Either way, a lot of smoke. 

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It would be interesting to run some sort of correlation analysis for max temperatures between known clear days in Medford and known clear days in Portland during JJA in that era. And then apply it to days when Medford was clear and Portland reported smoke, to see what the theoretical clear-sky maximum would have been. 

 

It's just too bad that the upper air soundings were non-existent in this region before 1950. It'd be interesting to look at the correlation between any high thickness (>576) days and the temps here.

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