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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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The last month of met summer is here. It's starting off as a scorcher too!

How will it all play out in the end...

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Guest Sounder

This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning.    Its heading far to the south and southwest.

 

smokec29_conus.png

 

Could keep daytime temps down at least. Maybe not all bad.

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Does it go beyond 1 day? Looks like Portland south stays mostly in the clear, which should allow them to maximize temps tomorrow.

 

Only goes out through late tomorrow night.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240.

MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger.

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Yeah, not sure what poor Jess is looking at. Meteostar output shows a cool 95 for Monday's high.

Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

 

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

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Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

 

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

 

At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s.

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MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger.

 

Some sort of marine intrusion is pretty likely in the next 10 days (there's a reason we've only had 10 straight 90 days once, of course). Though I wouldn't trust the models to pick up on the precise timing of mesoscale details like that a full week out.

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Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

 

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

Using the KISS approach, looks like low to mid 90's to me. Models seem insistent on sharpening the ridge a bit as the offshore low deepens.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Hey Tim, 12z Euro output when available por favor. I'm in the mood for an anxiety attack.

 

Waiting for it to finish loading the output section.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke is pretty visible on a lot of Puget Sound webcams now. Almost certainly going to lead to underwhelming numbers for a heatwave that otherwise may have challenged all-time records.

 

Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

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The more simple output guidance is not loading but here is a more detailed look at the PDX guidance from the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Unfortunately it is showing a total of zero snow in the next 10 days.   :(     (Also zero precipitation).  

 

KPDX_2017080112_dx_240.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

 

I wonder if smoke could explain the difference between Salem and Portland during some of those 1920s-30s heatwaves. I always thought Salem's thermometer was a bit overexposed during that era, but now I'm wondering if Portland could have had smokey skies while Salem was clear on some of those days.

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