Geos Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 The last month of met summer is here. It's starting off as a scorcher too!How will it all play out in the end... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Hot start, warm finish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Hottest first week of August on record very possible for many places. Timing lined up just perfectly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Will seattle hit 100 looks like a close call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning. Its heading far to the south and southwest. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning. Its heading far to the south and southwest. Could keep daytime temps down at least. Maybe not all bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning. Its heading far to the south and southwest. Does it go beyond 1 day? Looks like Portland south stays mostly in the clear, which should allow them to maximize temps tomorrow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Does it go beyond 1 day? Looks like Portland south stays mostly in the clear, which should allow them to maximize temps tomorrow. Only goes out through late tomorrow night. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 With the smoke in the sky, it feels pretty 'cool' right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 12z GFS mercifully ends the heatwave on Monday. We might luck out with "only" a week straight of 90s. #modernclimate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Line of smoke definitely visible coming in from the north here now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning. Its heading far to the south and southwest. Yuck. I'm hoping we luck out down here and avoid the smoke, though the entire region is probably going to be on fire this time next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 12z GFS mercifully ends the heatwave on Monday. We might luck out with "only" a week straight of 90s. #modernclimate Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240.MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240. Yeah, not sure what poor Jess is looking at. Meteostar output shows a cool 95 for Monday's high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Yeah, not sure what poor Jess is looking at. Meteostar output shows a cool 95 for Monday's high.Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally. Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally. Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+. At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s.This isn't a real discussion. Got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 That smoke looks pretty thick here. Only 76F and tracking a touch cooler than yesterday at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger. Some sort of marine intrusion is pretty likely in the next 10 days (there's a reason we've only had 10 straight 90 days once, of course). Though I wouldn't trust the models to pick up on the precise timing of mesoscale details like that a full week out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s. Only thing that can save us from your +7.8 August forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Only thing that can save us from your +7.8 August forecast. I hate how predictable our climate is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Smoke is pretty visible on a lot of Puget Sound webcams now. Almost certainly going to lead to underwhelming numbers for a heatwave that otherwise may have challenged all-time records. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Hey Tim, 12z Euro output when available por favor. I'm in the mood for an anxiety attack. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally. Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.Using the KISS approach, looks like low to mid 90's to me. Models seem insistent on sharpening the ridge a bit as the offshore low deepens. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I'm feeling pretty good about 100 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Using the KISS approach, looks like low to mid 90's to me. Models seem insistent on sharpening the ridge a bit as the offshore low deepens.KISS would dictate that 7+ days of 90 or higher are unlikely. Climo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 KISS would dictate that 7+ days of 90 or higher are unlikely. Climo.They are. I'm talking about model interpretation. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I'm feeling pretty good about 100 today.82 at PDX at noon won't cut it with northerly flow. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I'm feeling pretty good about 100 today. 97. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Hey Tim, 12z Euro output when available por favor. I'm in the mood for an anxiety attack. Waiting for it to finish loading the output section. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Smoke is pretty visible on a lot of Puget Sound webcams now. Almost certainly going to lead to underwhelming numbers for a heatwave that otherwise may have challenged all-time records. Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 They are. I'm talking about model interpretation.Monday didn't look like a sharpening ridge to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 82 at PDX at noon won't cut it with northerly flow. Yeah, I just saw the noon obs. It looked good up until 11am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Monday didn't look like a sharpening ridge to me.#augusticebox Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 97.Closer to Jesse's call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 The more simple output guidance is not loading but here is a more detailed look at the PDX guidance from the 12Z ECMWF. Unfortunately it is showing a total of zero snow in the next 10 days. (Also zero precipitation). Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke. I wonder if smoke could explain the difference between Salem and Portland during some of those 1920s-30s heatwaves. I always thought Salem's thermometer was a bit overexposed during that era, but now I'm wondering if Portland could have had smokey skies while Salem was clear on some of those days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 12z definitely seems less hot overall than the last few Euro runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Closer to Jesse's call. Flatiron says we're all gonna end up too cool for today. #runawayheattrain 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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