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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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A couple of pictures from the eclipse in Antelope, Oregon yesterday.  Pictures and words can't do the experience justice.

 

Watching the last light fade and darkness envelope you, yet sunset in every direction.  Stars and planets out and cool temps as the birds and insects moved around like it was evening.

 

Chills and goosebumps thinking about it!

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On paper, this winter has the potential to be better than last winter in the PNW. More coherent ENSO system, weaker sun, and a more vulnerable PV thanks to -QBO/easterly momentum deposition.

 

However, as 2007/08 reminds us, the thing to "fear" during such a winter is a nuclear +EPO. The conduit for it is wide open during the -QBO boundary state, due to a weaker NPAC high.

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A couple of pictures from the eclipse in Antelope, Oregon yesterday.  Pictures and words can't do the experience justice.

 

Watching the last light fade and darkness envelope you, yet sunset in every direction.  Stars and planets out and cool temps as the birds and insects moved around like it was evening.

 

Chills and goosebumps thinking about it!

You're right. While those are amazing pictures, it really doesn't come close to the live experience. I just wish it were longer than 2:07.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Interesting stuff. What were some of the driest Augusts on record at SEA? I'm curious to see their ENSOs and solar states.

 

Well, if you're looking at August alone: 1967, 1974, 1986, 2002, 2006, and 2012. All had .10" or less.

 

For July/August: 1945, 1958, 1967, 1973, 1984, and 2006. All had less than .40".

A forum for the end of the world.

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Well, if you're looking at August alone: 1967, 1974, 1986, 2002, 2006, and 2012. All had .10" or less.

 

For July/August: 1945, 1958, 1967, 1973, 1984, and 2006. All had less than .40".

What about the driest -ENSO years? I'm handicapped I only have an iPhone here (with a cracked screen) so it's not the best tool for browsing pages with small numbers.

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A couple of pictures from the eclipse in Antelope, Oregon yesterday.  Pictures and words can't do the experience justice.

 

Watching the last light fade and darkness envelope you, yet sunset in every direction.  Stars and planets out and cool temps as the birds and insects moved around like it was evening.

 

Chills and goosebumps thinking about it!

 

I got goosebumps just watching my son's video and their reaction to the total eclipse.   :)

 

I posted this in the eclipse thread but people might not be going there any longer.

 

https://vimeo.com/230626536

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You're right. While those are amazing pictures, it really doesn't come close to the live experience. I just wish it were longer than 2:07.

 

Go to the east side of the Dallas area on 4/8/2024... double your time.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yea there were several dogs in the area we were and none acted weird. Overall I didn't notice animals acting weird.

 

Biggest thing I noticed being out in the fields was the crickets stopped chirping almost exactly at the same time of totality then started right back up again after. Made things extra eerie! 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Go to the east side of the Dallas area on 4/8/2024... double your time.   :)

 

You should go!  :) We've already added to the calendar to head to the midwest or the Montreal area in 2024. We're hooked!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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You should go!  :) We've already added to the calendar to head to the midwest or the Montreal area in 2024. We're hooked!

 

 

I would think Texas is your best bet in 2024 given that its happening in April.    But you never know... we will be in an the next ice age by then and Texas will be the new Manitoba.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Do you have your ISO compliant big marine push glasses?

 

Safeway is sold out!   Going to have to stay indoors and away from the windows.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 clap of thunder about 15 minutes ago. This was just a popcorn popup since I haven't heard a thing since then. And can't even see the cloud through all this smoke. It is pretty thick today.

 

4th storm day so far this August. I hope more come in soon this evening. NWS indicates a chance of overnight convection.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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You're the sourest grape of all.

Ok.

 

I had actually run the numbers mid month before making statements along the lines of an all-time record warm month looking likely. Wasn't just pulling it out of thin air.

 

For someone who seems to desperately crave credit for every stroke of forecasting genius they make, you are surprisingly stingy about handing it to others. :lol:

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Sky is noticeably hazier today. Puke!!!

 

How bad is it in your area? I've had AQI's between 100 and 200, with mornings around 40-60 ish last couple weeks.

 

Still not as bad as August 2015, even though that was a lot shorter but it was literally Beijing here back then.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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You're right. While those are amazing pictures, it really doesn't come close to the live experience. I just wish it were longer than 2:07.

 

When you think about it, 2 minutes is actually pretty long for totality. I'll have to go to Chile in 2019 and 2020 I guess. Should be awesome there. :)

 

Even here with 90% lunar coverage, the air became eerily still and the insects/birds were mostly quiet (some birds were chirping but it was like at dusk) and then when the sun came back there were quite a few birds making a move for it after sitting on a building for a few minutes. The wind came back when the sun came back as well.

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Web cam time lapse from yesterday from the OSU campus in Corvallis.   Amazing how fast totality goes by... but so cool to see   You will have to pause it around 10:17 a.m. to really see it.  

 

http://webcam.oregonstate.edu/cam/mu/timelapse/2017-08-21.mp4

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Go to the east side of the Dallas area on 4/8/2024... double your time. :)

My brother who missed out on this one is already planning that one. He's jealous he missed this trip.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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When you think about it, 2 minutes is actually pretty long for totality. I'll have to go to Chile in 2019 and 2020 I guess. Should be awesome there. :)

 

Even here with 90% lunar coverage, the air became eerily still and the insects/birds were mostly quiet (some birds were chirping but it was like at dusk) and then when the sun came back there were quite a few birds making a move for it after sitting on a building for a few minutes. The wind came back when the sun came back as well.

Interesting that you and Kayla both noticed the cricket and bird changes. Our area didn't have a lot of birds or bugs and maybe that's because we were on a slope without much water. I mainly noticed the temperature drop. It was in the mid 70s around 9am and I was sweating in direct sun. Once the sun started going away it must have dropped to the low 60s and it was in fact a little chilly with a cool breeze before and after totality.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Share on other sites

1 clap of thunder about 15 minutes ago. This was just a popcorn popup since I haven't heard a thing since then. And can't even see the cloud through all this smoke. It is pretty thick today.

 

4th storm day so far this August. I hope more come in soon this evening. NWS indicates a chance of overnight convection.

How is it now? Looking decent over your area.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Share on other sites

Interesting that you and Kayla both noticed the cricket and bird changes. Our area didn't have a lot of birds or bugs and maybe that's because we were on a slope without much water. I mainly noticed the temperature drop. It was in the mid 70s around 9am and I was sweating in direct sun. Once the sun started going away it must have dropped to the low 60s and it was in fact a little chilly with a cool breeze before and after totality.

 

Hmm, well now that you mention it there was a decidedly chilly breeze during the maximum here. I was in an exposed field during that time which is why I felt a breeze then. Shouldering that time I was in less exposed areas within more wooded area and there was no breeze in the trees. All in all, it was a weird time.

 

Still 77F here at 9:30pm with a 61F dew point.  <_>

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How is it now? Looking decent over your area.

 

Storms increased in coverage definitely.. Got some moderate rainfall, even a brief downpour almost an hour ago. 

 

For some reason thunder wasn't very loud (aside from just 1 decent boom which shook the walls), I wonder if the smoke plays a role in masking the sound of thunder in some way? Based on radar, a good two or three storms were near the house.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Share on other sites

Ok.

 

I had actually run the numbers mid month before making statements along the lines of an all-time record warm month looking likely. Wasn't just pulling it out of thin air.

 

For someone who seems to desperately crave credit for every stroke of forecasting genius they make, you are surprisingly stingy about handing it to others. :lol:

 

It wasn't a serious post.

 

You went from talking about a 1977-esque pattern flip to talking about the warmest month on record - all within a week! You deserve every bit of credit you're getting.

A forum for the end of the world.

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It wasn't a serious post.

 

You went from talking about a 1977-esque pattern flip to talking about the warmest month on record - all within a week! You deserve every bit of credit you're getting.

Discussing the models. They changed. A 1977-like flip looked to be on the table early on in the month. By mid month the writing was on the wall that things would run very warm overall.

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Discussing the models. They changed. A 1977-like flip looked to be on the table early on in the month. By mid month the writing was on the wall that things would run very warm overall.

 

Sure. You deserve all sorts of kudos for your model discussions. And I welcomed you with open arms to the warm August camp.  B)

A forum for the end of the world.

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Sure. You deserve all sorts of kudos for your model discussions. And I welcomed you with open arms to the warm August camp.  B)

 

I never was asking for kudos, I don't have my ego nearly as tied into my forecasting prowess as you, Phil et al. Just don't try to paint reasonable (somewhat obvious) model analysis as some kind of reverse psychology wishcasting deal. The writing was on the wall for a record or near record warm month a week ago, back when you were arguing with me that it was numerically unlikely, if not impossible.

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I never was asking for kudos, I don't have my ego nearly as tied into my forecasting prowess as you, Phil et al. Just don't try to paint reasonable (somewhat obvious) model analysis as some kind of reverse psychology wishcasting deal. The writing was on the wall for a record or near record warm month a week ago, back when you were arguing with me that it was numerically unlikely, if not impossible.

 

-_-

A forum for the end of the world.

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How bad is it in your area? I've had AQI's between 100 and 200, with mornings around 40-60 ish last couple weeks.

 

Still not as bad as August 2015, even though that was a lot shorter but it was literally Beijing here back then.

 

It's been in the good range up here, but the smoky haze today was noticeable to the southeast. Mt. Hood was obscured all day.

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OLM, the station that truly matters from a historical context, faces a very stiff challenge to hit all-time warmest month. Currently running almost 2 degrees behind July 1958.

 

Comparing the Puget Sound to the Willamette Valley can be a bit of an apples/oranges affair. July 1958 was favored for the Puget Sound. Incredible anomalies. Monroe pulled off an 87.7 mean maximum for the month, almost 4F higher than any other month on record. Even Clearbrook averaged 85.1 for a max. 

 

On the other hand, PDX averaged "only" 83.5, and Eugene's 87.5 came in lower than Monroe. In 2014 alone, EUG averaged warmer maximums in both July (87.6) and August (87.8). July 1958 isn't the standard bearer for the Willamette Valley like it is in the Puget Sound. 

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