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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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Well the 18z GFS only goes out to the 16th right now. So if we are technically waiting until sometime in the second half of September for a pattern change, then that could verify and you'd still be correct. ;)

I haven't even looked at the clown range 18z GFS yet, and I'm not sure how it's relevant tbh.

 

We lose the WPAC forcing between 9/10 and 9/15, so sometime between 9/15 and 9/20 is when I'd expect a notable pattern change to -PNA/troughing.

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I haven't even looked at the clown range 18z GFS yet, and I'm not sure how it's relevant tbh.

 

We lose the WPAC forcing between 9/10 and 9/15, so sometime between 9/15 and 9/20 is when I'd expect a notable pattern change to -PNA/troughing.

Good to know.

 

And I'm sure the 18z GFS is off its rocker. I was just making a point regarding timing.

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Or I could be missing something and bust again.

 

Those 5+ weeks in June/July are still a fresh s**t stain on my psyche. One of my roughest stretches ever.

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Or I could be missing something and bust again.

 

Those 5+ weeks in June/July are still a fresh s**t stain on my psyche. One of my roughest stretches ever.

I'm sure if you bust it will be due to the PNW running warmer than anticipated. Just like June/July.

 

You warm calls are usually dead on though.

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Even with their modern UHI boost, SEA will fall easily short of both warmest August (1967) and warmest month (July 2015).

 

It looks like of the major stations, SLE came closest to warmest month on record, falling less than a tenth of a degree short. But that station is pretty jacked up these days compared to historical records.

Brrrrrrrrr!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Or I could be missing something and bust again.

 

Those 5+ weeks in June/July are still a fresh s**t stain on my psyche. One of my roughest stretches ever.

 

Local history... my favorite guide of course... just screams for 7-10 days of troughing and rain by the middle to end of September given the evolution this summer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Local history... my favorite guide of course... just screams for 7-10 days of troughing and rain by the middle to end of September given the evolution this summer.

UJEAS says the second half of the month will be cooler than the first. This aligns with my analysis as well.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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UJEAS says the second half of the month will be cooler than the first. This aligns with my analysis as well.

 

UJEAS not showing a massive arctic outbreak that will cripple the PNW by the end of the month?   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The evening sun angle has clearly revealed all the active fires again... and all of the smoke blowing from west to east.    

 

For now.   Not for much longer.

 

pacnorthwest_02_20170901004715.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The evening sun angle has clearly revealed all the active fires again... and all of the smoke blowing from west to east.    

 

For now.   Not for much longer.

 

pacnorthwest_02_20170901004715.jpg

 

I've got a feeling we haven't seen the last of the smoke. Smoke will either come from the east, south or northeast. There are more possible sources now than there were at any point earlier in the season.

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Weird temperature profile today. Ended up with a "low" of 58.2F last night, a high of 74F this afternoon, then it crashed down to 57.9F by 8:30pm and now back up to 60F at nearly 10pm with the temperature slowly creeping up with the wind shift. So the daily low probably ends up having happened at 8:30pm; can't imagine that happens often. Looks like this area ends the month with no sub-70F daily highs, though yesterday came close.

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I've got a feeling we haven't seen the last of the smoke. Smoke will either come from the east, south or northeast. There are more possible sources now than there were at any point earlier in the season.

 

Good news is that we stay in the clean air all the way through Saturday at least... the Midwest has more smoke on Saturday evening than Seattle or Vancouver BC.

 

2017090100_V2017090300_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good news is that we stay in the clean air all the way through Saturday at least... the Midwest has more smoke on Saturday evening than Seattle or Vancouver BC.

 

2017090100_V2017090300_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d

 

At least the Labour Day long weekend should be nice. I'm heading up to Sproat Lake again, the last long weekend got smoked out, looks more promising this weekend. The flow remains W/NW until some time on Monday. After that it could get pretty bad.

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Good news is that we stay in the clean air all the way through Saturday at least... the Midwest has more smoke on Saturday evening than Seattle or Vancouver BC.

 

2017090100_V2017090300_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d

 

 

Just need it to stay this way through Monday.   I'm taking my son to his first concert at the Gorge amphitheater Sunday and I want him to be able to enjoy the venue as much as the band.  We'll spend the night in Wenatchee then hopefully head home via Winthrop/Hwy 20.  If it ends up being smoky we will probably jump on Hwy 2 early Monday and try to beat the Labor Day gridlock on I-5

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Just need it to stay this way through Monday.   I'm taking my son to his first concert at the Gorge amphitheater Sunday and I want him to be able to enjoy the venue as much as the band.  We'll spend the night in Wenatchee then hopefully head home via Winthrop/Hwy 20.  If it ends up being smoky we will probably jump on Hwy 2 early Monday and try to beat the Labor Day gridlock on I-5

 

Guns N' Roses?    :)

 

I wonder if offshore flow might help the situation at the Gorge.   They are immediately downwind of the fires in the Cascades and turning that flow around might help there while it sucks over here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guns N' Roses?    :)

 

I wonder if offshore flow might help the situation at the Gorge.   They are immediately downwind of the fires in the Cascades and turning that flow around might help there while it sucks over here.

 

 

Yeah.  It should be interesting.  I'm not much of a hair metal guy (more into classic rock) but GnR is the exception.  My son fell in love with them because they are one of my wife's favorite bands, so she had them on in the car alot.

 

Heck of a lot better than rap, which was his first choice...no offense to those on the forum that like rap...there is some rap I like, but not enough to go to a concert.

 

 

I am really hoping it does clear out.  I also hope that the Winthrop/Hwy 20 area is clear.  I've gone as far as Diablo Lake (coming from the west), and I would really like to go all the way across.

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