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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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I'm not entirely sold on 107 at PDX out of this heat wave. Neither the 12Z GFS or NAM bring the 594dm contour over PDX, although both spike it just to our west in similar fashion to July 2009. In August 1981 the ridge was directly overhead, with the 594dm contour extending to the north of Portland. The 500mb picture just doesn't look right for an all-time record this week in Portland. Maybe the near-record 850's will push us over the top? Also, there's always room for a downslope miracle like 7/30/1965, but that reading resulted from a bizarre pattern that's completely unlike what we're going to see this week (deep low in the GOA and 590dm+ heights building under a ridge to the north = downslope NE winds at PDX, in other words a wintertime pattern in July). 

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I'm not entirely sold on 107 at PDX out of this heat wave. Neither the 12Z GFS or NAM bring the 594dm contour over PDX, although both spike it just to our west in similar fashion to July 2009. In August 1981 the ridge was directly overhead, with the 594dm contour extending to the north of Portland. The 500mb picture just doesn't look right for an all-time record this week in Portland. Maybe the near-record 850's will push us over the top? Also, there's always room for a downslope miracle like 7/30/1965, but that reading resulted from a bizarre pattern that's completely unlike what we're going to see this week (deep low in the GOA and 590dm+ heights building under a ridge to the north = downslope NE winds at PDX, in other words a wintertime pattern in July).

 

I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.

Decent chance that one or both days are affected by smoke anyway.

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I survived the great 2017 heatwave!  High of 98F recorded and a humidity of 19 percent.  This 'heat' isn't really that bad. Me and my parents were outside for an hour and for most of the afternoon there was a north breeze until 3pmish..  My limit is about 95F outside.  The humidity being low made it much more bearable.   I'd take this over subtropical cut off low iny day.  

 

I have an ear infection the doctor found that has been building up for some time and a nasty fever of 100F *which equals this heat* so I'm being put on Augmentin which I hate but is necessary to kick it out.   The secret to surviving it is have a bunch of natural yogurt *like Tillamook* ready as it helps your guts which in turn helps your stomach not hate you. If any of you ever go on prescription medicine having yogurt really makes a difference and in hot weather it even helps cooling you off a bit almost like ice cream but not so fattening

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It gives you a view into how low level Arctic air can enter the region from the BC interior.

 

I was thinking the exact same thing earlier.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.

 

I'm still feeling 107-108 on Thursday. Back to back days of ~26c @850mb, similar to 2009 with zero chance of cloud cover. Only caveat is the smoke but looks like the latest guidance keeps it just north and west of PDX during the daylight hours tomorrow. The smoke could keep temps up tonight with the northwest flow before more of an offshore flow kicks in tomorrow.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue.

 

Smoke was actually too thick in Seattle for much of a sunset... almost like thick high clouds.    It just went from gray to dark.

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Looks a little more convective next week as the flow aloft turns more southerly. Probably see the 90 streak end on one of those days.

 

Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.

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Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.

 

Its bad right now... lots of pissed off family members.   We have never had a bad week... just a couple bad days here and there.   The last two years we had perfect weather the entire week.  

 

A couple family members saying they don't want to waste their limited vacation time if the weather is going to be total crap and might just work next week.

 

I posted the forecast for Couer d'Alene which is where I was trying to convince everyone to meet this year... that just pissed them off more.   :)

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Yeah, can't even smell it here yet which is nice. Not sure about up there.

 

Cannot smell it yet... must be too elevated this far south.

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Its bad right now... lots of pissed off family members.   We have never had a bad week... just a couple bad days here and there.   The last two years we had perfect weather the entire week.  

 

A couple family members saying they don't want to waste their limited vacation time if the weather is going to be total crap and might just work next week.

 

I posted the forecast for Couer d'Alene which is where I was trying to convince everyone to meet this year... that just pissed them off more.   :)

 

Warms the heart.

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Warms the heart.

 

I sort of understand.  Most of them live close to each other and see each other all the time and thought of being cooped up in a house with 30 people while its raining most of the week sounds unpleasant.   They might also come for a few days so they can see us West Coasters (my wife's sister and family lives in San Diego) and then leave so they can save their PTO.

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The smoke was visible almost all day today here in Victoria, though it was at least a mile or two above us. A few people said they could smell it but I haven't noticed it yet, just seemed really hazy/windless. We ended up making it up to 82F, probably would have been warmer without the smoke but it was still warmer than yesterday. Tonight has the markings of a warm one, it dropped to 70F a little earlier now it's back up to 72F. 

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Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.

Convective debris and mesoscale convective setups are pretty impossible to pinpoint accurately at this point.

 

But with the current look of the models, I'd be pretty surprised if those didn't arise on at least one of those days next week and ruin our little I-Love-The-'90s marathon at a more climatologically precedented date.

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Convective debris and mesoscale convective setups are pretty impossible to pinpoint accurately at this point.

 

But with the current look of the models, I'd be pretty surprised if those didn't arise on at least one of those days next week and ruin our little I-Love-The-'90s marathon at a more climatologically precedented date.

 

12Z ECMWF had a couple days below 90 down there early next week.

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I don't think so. It's been a few years. Seems most summers here are consistently warm/hot with highs 90-95 with no real triple digits in central Oregon.

What about June 25th?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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MFR should finally break through their 109 degree glass ceiling, either today or tomorrow. They haven't seen 110+ since a reading of 111 on 6/22/1992. Since that time, MFR peaked at 109 on:

 

7/21/1994

7/29/2009

7/31/2015

8/19/2016

 

It happened. MFR snuck up to 110 after 5pm today.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kmfr&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

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Looks like RDM hit triple digits in 2013, 2014, 2015 (six times), and 6/25/2017. None in 2016.

 

BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post.

 

So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years.

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BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post.

 

So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years.

 

I was shocked to see you miss that... I was waiting for your correction.   ;)

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Dewpoints in the upper 50s definitely helps in this case... the highs will be a little muted (along with the smoke) and the fire danger is not a severe.

 

Smoke is noticeable here but the sun is definitely shining brightly.    Not nearly as thick as what I see on the Vancouver BC cams.

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The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right.

 

06z GFS has to be off its rails. No day cooler than 96º and 6 days above 100+ over the next 10 days at PDX. Would put this month in the record books that's for sure whether or not they beat the all-time high. 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.

I think you mean everyone east of the Rockies *except Florida* is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Now, if we could just continue this pattern into the winter. ;)

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