Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

 

As usual, NOAA has EC for the GL's region. That cooler (blue color) should be spread over a lot more places to the north. Should get adjusted as times progresses. NOAA always play it very conservative.

[jaster220]

 

As usual, NOAA has EC for the GL's region. That cooler (blue color) should be spread over a lot more places to the north. Should get adjusted as times progresses. NOAA always play it very conservative.

As discussed elsewhere, that's just DJF, they have us below for JFM. If Dec is warm, they may not be far off by numbers. If Dec goes avg to below for the Midwest and Lakes, they bust! Time will tell..

[Niko]

As discussed elsewhere, that's just DJF, they have us below for JFM. If Dec is warm, they may not be far off by numbers. If Dec goes avg to below for the Midwest and Lakes, they bust! Time will tell..

They usually do bust!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly i have never out much faith in noaas outlook. All they ever do is forecast a standard la nina or el nino winter and call it good.

[Tom]

Could we have an early PV Split in November???  Increasing signs in the Strat, along with high latitude blocking, that a piece of the PV may find it's way into N.A. week 2 which could lead us into a very cold period (against the norms) 2nd week of November, which also fits the BSR rule for a stormy/cold period.  My goodness, this could be one hellova ride early on in the season.

[Niko]

Could we have an early PV Split in November???  Increasing signs in the Strat, along with high latitude blocking, that a piece of the PV may find it's way into N.A. week 2 which could lead us into a very cold period (against the norms) 2nd week of November, which also fits the BSR rule for a stormy/cold period.  My goodness, this could be one hellova ride early on in the season.

By next weekend, I am gonna put my lawn mower aside and start preparing my snowblower. From the looks of things, I will need it to be on standby.

[westMJim]

Could we have an early PV Split in November???  Increasing signs in the Strat, along with high latitude blocking, that a piece of the PV may find it's way into N.A. week 2 which could lead us into a very cold period (against the norms) 2nd week of November, which also fits the BSR rule for a stormy/cold period.  My goodness, this could be one hellova ride early on in the season.

 

The start of November 1991 was very cold with a lot of lake snow here in Grand Rapids. Grand Rapids had 17.2” of snow between the 2^nd and the 5^th and had 25.3” for the month. The winter of 1991/92 was a strong El Nino year and November was by far the snowiest month of the winter of 1991/92. 

[Tom]

The start of November 1991 was very cold with a lot of lake snow here in Grand Rapids. Grand Rapids had 17.2” of snow between the 2^nd and the 5^th and had 25.3” for the month. The winter of 1991/92 was a strong El Nino year and November was by far the snowiest month of the winter of 1991/92.

Impressive! Glad this is not an El Niño year bc if they start cold they usually end up warm. La Nada’s/Nina’s that start cold usually hold cold throughout the winter. Are we going to another level this year? We’ll see.

[OKwx2k4]

Could we have an early PV Split in November??? Increasing signs in the Strat, along with high latitude blocking, that a piece of the PV may find it's way into N.A. week 2 which could lead us into a very cold period (against the norms) 2nd week of November, which also fits the BSR rule for a stormy/cold period. My goodness, this could be one hellova ride early on in the season.

Let's rock and roll then buddy. I'm ready. Been waiting for a year like this for a long time.

[jaster220]

The start of November 1991 was very cold with a lot of lake snow here in Grand Rapids. Grand Rapids had 17.2” of snow between the 2^nd and the 5^th and had 25.3” for the month. The winter of 1991/92 was a strong El Nino year and November was by far the snowiest month of the winter of 1991/92.

 

Yeah, every memory I have of early winter via re-curving typhoons, ended up being a cold SW flow event. Great for GR, but not Marshall. While Nov '14 was bringing 40" of LES from GR and points west, I was getting teased with occasional dustings.

 

As for 91-92 being a NINO, it must've been a strange one, because in Jan Detroit and just south got slammed by a very phased storm that almost had the city at a standstill dropping 10-15" in a short span overnight.

[Thunder98]

 

As usual, NOAA has EC for the GL's region. That cooler (blue color) should be spread over a lot more places to the north. Should get adjusted as times progresses. NOAA always play it very conservative.

NOAA definitely has a warm bias

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Tom I would like to hear more about this idea of yours about the storm coming out of the southwest the second week of November.  Where are you seeing all this stuff that suggests that?

[OKwx2k4]

Tom I would like to hear more about this idea of yours about the storm coming out of the southwest the second week of November. Where are you seeing all this stuff that suggests that?

I'd just trust him honestly. There have been many indicators for a pretty harsh mid-November for about 2 months now. I think he has covered it pretty extensively.

[Minny_Weather]

Tom I would like to hear more about this idea of yours about the storm coming out of the southwest the second week of November. Where are you seeing all this stuff that suggests that?

Tom is secretly a wizard who has the ability to not only tell when a low is coming, but he can control it. He just hides it from us.

 

In all seriousness, I'd trust him too. Like OKwx said, it has been pretty indicative of a nice middle part of November, Euro weeklies have sniffed it out since the beginning of the month.

[OKwx2k4]

All teleconnections forecasts throughout the next 15 days look really nice as well. I think we see some AO weakening start showing up as we get through the next 7 days. EPO cold dump coming up looks like the real deal for this time of the year.

[Niko]

Tom I would like to hear more about this idea of yours about the storm coming out of the southwest the second week of November.  Where are you seeing all this stuff that suggests that?

Just go back a few pages and you will see full detailed explanation!

[Niko]

NOAA definitely has a warm bias

I agree!

[westMJim]

Yeah, every memory I have of early winter via re-curving typhoons, ended up being a cold SW flow event. Great for GR, but not Marshall. While Nov '14 was bringing 40" of LES from GR and points west, I was getting teased with occasional dustings.

 

As for 91-92 being a NINO, it must've been a strange one, because in Jan Detroit and just south got slammed by a very phased storm that almost had the city at a standstill dropping 10-15" in a short span overnight.

That storm on Jan 14/15 1992 dumped around a foot in the Detroit area and around 5" in the Lansing area but only 3.8" in the Grand Rapids area. Both sides of the state did get some snows in March of 1992. with 15.1" at Grand Rapids, 14.1" at Lansing 11.7" at Detroit 14.4" at Flint and 11.0" at Saginaw. So yes in the Detroit area they had a big storm in Mid January 1992.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I just started posting here again a week ago so I may have to look back some. Thanks!

[Tom]

Tom I would like to hear more about this idea of yours about the storm coming out of the southwest the second week of November.  Where are you seeing all this stuff that suggests that?

I use the Bearing Sea Rule as guidance for long range predictions and look at how the systems track in the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Islands.  Nothing is guaranteed, but it did a very good job predicting the GL's storm we are experiencing today over 2 weeks out.  There are other things I use to help make a decent prediction but these are in general my own gut feelings on where ridges/troughs are setting up in the N PAC.

 

Anyway, I'll try to explain it to you using the animated map below.  First off, the system that I feel rather strongly about will be entering the picture around 11/10-11/14 (centered around 11/11).  From knowledge that I have gained, there are a couple important features I use as pattern recognition out in East Asia.  Take a look at both the storm/trough in the Sea of Okhotsk and then the obvious Typhoon LAN near Japan on the 22nd.  The trough placement in the Sea of Okhotsk typically translates to a trough forming in SW Canada/N Rockies.  When both of these systems phase (it may be a scenario where you have a driving northern branch phasing with a southern stream wave in the SW).  

 

You will see both systems phase on the 24th along the Aleutian chain and nearly track due west/east across the Bearing Sea suggesting what may be another CO Low system which we have already seen happen this season.  If this storm were to cut NE, then you would see a GL's cutter, but I don't see that happening with this storm.  I think there will be enough blocking in place during this period where this storm may be a "share the wealth" type.  It would be a lot easier for me to explain this to you in person or on the phone as there are other things I look at as well but in general, this is what I see and I hope you understand where I'm coming from.

[Tom]

JMA precip Anomalies suggesting a SW Flow which is fitting the pattern we have been experiencing early on this season as the pattern sets up.  AN precip in the SW/central states is looking real good for a nice December and potentially white holiday season.

 

[OKwx2k4]

December looking good there.

[Tom]

CFSv2 is trending towards an increasingly cold November 500mb pattern as we see a deep Bearing Sea trough/NW NAMER ridge.  Here is today's 700mb run....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171023.201711.gif

 

 

 

Some of the coldest Nov analog's are strikingly similar...

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Nice BSR/E Asian tutorial there bud! Our NE peeps need to hang in just a bit longer. As posted a couple weeks ago, the CO Lows are gonna rock that region and I don't think it's a "one and done" winter wrt to those systems either. They may have some quiet interludes while other regions take their turn (see today's map), when it's their turn I'm forecasting a bunch of smiley icons. 

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Nice BSR/E Asian tutorial there bud! Our NE peeps need to hang in just a bit longer. As posted a couple weeks ago, the CO Lows are gonna rock that region and I don't think it's a "one and done" winter wrt to those systems either. They may have some quiet interludes while other regions take their turn (see today's map), when it's their turn I'm forecasting a bunch of smiley icons. 

Agree, so far I see 2 distinct parts of this early LRC pattern, one with a SW Flow regime and then a potentially frigid NW Flow "clipper" dominant northern stream.  I think the GL's will be impacted by both of these cycles so I'd imagine Gary Lezak will likely highlight this region in his maps come end of November.

[hlcater]

Agree, so far I see 2 distinct parts of this early LRC pattern, one with a SW Flow regime and then a potentially frigid NW Flow "clipper" dominant northern stream. I think the GL's will be impacted by both of these cycles so I'd imagine Gary Lezak will likely highlight this region in his maps come end of November.

I'm worried about how moisture laden these clippers will be given current drought conditions ongoing over the northern plains and Canadian prairies. I'm not entirely sure that this is where the surface moisture comes from, but I'd assume the mid levels would be at least a tad drier since they would originate from this region.

[james1976]

I'm worried about how moisture laden these clippers will be given current drought conditions ongoing over the northern plains and Canadian prairies. I'm not entirely sure that this is where the surface moisture comes from, but I'd assume the mid levels would be at least a tad drier since they would originate from this region.

It always seems like clippers over perform. Noticed that a lot in the past.

[Tom]

I'm worried about how moisture laden these clippers will be given current drought conditions ongoing over the northern plains and Canadian prairies. I'm not entirely sure that this is where the surface moisture comes from, but I'd assume the mid levels would be at least a tad drier since they would originate from this region.

This is true and a good point. I guess it would really depend on where the clipper originates from. For instance, the one targeting the Northwoods/U.P. this week came off the Pacific and has decent plume of moisture coming with it. Occasionally, these can dig with enough blocking and slow quite a bit allowing the GOM connection to come into play. This seldom happens but in a potential blocked up flow this season, it’s def on the table moreso this season than any other one in recent years.

 

Other clippers originate from the far NW territories and are almost starved of moisture when they enter our picture.

[Tom]

Interesting, both 12z GEFS/EPS are heading towards the pattern I mentioned earlier today with very cold air building in SW Canada/N Rockies as we enter the period when the SW Flow takes shape for the early part of November.  IMO, the pattern continues to progress as I thought it would down the road through at least mid November.  Winter is coming early folks!

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102312/noram/eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_360.png

 

[Niko]

Interesting, both 12z GEFS/EPS are heading towards the pattern I mentioned earlier today with very cold air building in SW Canada/N Rockies as we enter the period when the SW Flow takes shape for the early part of November.  IMO, the pattern continues to progress as I thought it would down the road through at least mid November.  Winter is coming early folks!

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102312/noram/eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_360.png

 

Cant remember when the last time was when I saw a map like that.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I use the Bearing Sea Rule as guidance for long range predictions and look at how the systems track in the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Islands.  Nothing is guaranteed, but it did a very good job predicting the GL's storm we are experiencing today over 2 weeks out.  There are other things I use to help make a decent prediction but these are in general my own gut feelings on where ridges/troughs are setting up in the N PAC.

 

Anyway, I'll try to explain it to you using the animated map below.  First off, the system that I feel rather strongly about will be entering the picture around 11/10-11/14 (centered around 11/11).  From knowledge that I have gained, there are a couple important features I use as pattern recognition out in East Asia.  Take a look at both the storm/trough in the Sea of Okhotsk and then the obvious Typhoon LAN near Japan on the 22nd.  The trough placement in the Sea of Okhotsk typically translates to a trough forming in SW Canada/N Rockies.  When both of these systems phase (it may be a scenario where you have a driving northern branch phasing with a southern stream wave in the SW).  

 

You will see both systems phase on the 24th along the Aleutian chain and nearly track due west/east across the Bearing Sea suggesting what may be another CO Low system which we have already seen happen this season.  If this storm were to cut NE, then you would see a GL's cutter, but I don't see that happening with this storm.  I think there will be enough blocking in place during this period where this storm may be a "share the wealth" type.  It would be a lot easier for me to explain this to you in person or on the phone as there are other things I look at as well but in general, this is what I see and I hope you understand where I'm coming from.

I am starting to see signs on the GFS/EURO of that trough forming in the southwest.

[Tom]

I am starting to see signs on the GFS/EURO of that trough forming in the southwest.

Yup, give it another day or two and the signal will be much better. The PNA looks to relax also which would be more favorable as well for a SW Flow. Coast to coast storm pattern in Nov?

[jaster220]

@ temp anom maps

 

Those look #ideal Tom. What weather wish book did you order those out of again??

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yup, give it another day or two and the signal will be much better. The PNA looks to relax also which would be more favorable as well for a SW Flow. Coast to coast storm pattern in Nov?

That's what Im hoping for. I've seen these systems miss just to my east in Iowa too many times.

[GDR]

I don't know about you but I got a feeling that some big storms from kc to Dsm and Chicago are going to smash that area this year.

[Tom]

Tonight's Euro Weeklies run is probably the coldest and snowiest run of the season.  It literally builds a glacier by the first week of December from the Plains to the Lakes...might even start by Thanksgiving week!  Insane.  Gives us a clue as to where this pattern is heading.  This is the first run which loads the entire country of Canada with brutal cold and carves out the coldest below normal anomalies smack dab in the middle of the nation with both coasts above normal temp wise.  November = Brrrrrr   #Ol'manwinter #PolarVortex

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Tonight's Euro Weeklies run is probably the coldest and snowiest run of the season.  It literally builds a glacier by the first week of December from the Plains to the Lakes...might even start by Thanksgiving week!  Insane.  Gives us a clue as to where this pattern is heading.  This is the first run which loads the entire country of Canada with brutal cold and carves out the coldest below normal anomalies smack dab in the middle of the nation with both coasts above normal temp wise.  November = Brrrrrr   #Ol'manwinter #PolarVortex

Even the 32-day brings the snow quite a bit South. It is very likely us plainsers will have a >2" snowfall before Thanksgiving imo. It does, however, appear to get warmer as December starts.

[Tom]

Even the 32-day brings the snow quite a bit South. It is very likely us plainsers will have a >2" snowfall before Thanksgiving imo. It does, however, appear to get warmer as December starts.

Not to worried about Dec on the weeklies. Let’s get through November first!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Been hearing some talking that this winter could be like 2006-2007...thoughts?

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/usa-winter-wrap-up-precip-03-2007.jpg

[OKwx2k4]

November 17 was the day I've had in mind for my first real snow event. Sounds like it may be before then. Crazy awesome stuff. Seeing a 15 day mean that loaded with cold is really ridiculous.