Tom Posted October 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Euro Weeklies holding strong on the idea of Canada filling up with snow and cold for the month of November. Lack of any true high latitude blocking next month may not be enough to allow any penetrating sustained cold the farther south you go. However, the farther north you are of, say, I-80 on north, stand a better chance at seeing wintry precip next month. The latest POAMA model suggesting similar look to the CFSv2... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 @ Euro -20F anom's for two weeks, dat gunna be cold for dem Canucks, eh?? Looks good for the west Peeps in the sub, even slightly below over SMI. I'd take a couple strong CF's bringing some LES and call it a win next month tbh. Not looking for much more with the trends. Nice to see Arrowhead of MN with 2nd WSWatch tho. Active active! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Today is a seemingly nice ending to October. Glad to know we have several cold blasts and storms loaded up in the pattern and it's only partway through the first cycle. Whoever called 2013-14 out as a primary analog first may have had the best shot at being correct. Someone in another topic posted about a hundred year event. If I recall correctly, only analog I could find for 2013-14 was 1917-18 (grains of salt and whatnot apply). I'd also see some sort of blend between 1915-16 and 1978-79 being possible. Basically, we need the N. Pac indices to do all the work. Going to be very interesting to see how the next 4 weeks go, but if it's like the Euro map in Tom's post above, it should mean that we all have a great shot at a long and fun winter with pretty well timed warm breaks. I like the southwest ridge warming in that Euro map. That's where this pattern has to go for it to work out. Also fits the last analog maps I had posted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 I like these too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Today is a seemingly nice ending to October. Glad to know we have several cold blasts and storms loaded up in the pattern and it's only partway through the first cycle. Whoever called 2013-14 out as a primary analog first may have had the best shot at being correct. Someone in another topic posted about a hundred year event. If I recall correctly, only analog I could find for 2013-14 was 1917-18 (grains of salt and whatnot apply). I'd also see some sort of blend between 1915-16 and 1978-79 being possible. Basically, we need the N. Pac indices to do all the work. Going to be very interesting to see how the next 4 weeks go, but if it's like the Euro map in Tom's post above, it should mean that we all have a great shot at a long and fun winter with pretty well timed warm breaks. I like the southwest ridge warming in that Euro map. That's where this pattern has to go for it to work out. Also fits the last analog maps I had posted.Yeah, if that Euro is correct, somebody on here will score big in the latter half of Nov. I like your analog research - nice work! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Yeah, if that Euro is correct, somebody on here will score big in the latter half of Nov. I like your analog research - nice work!Hope its my area! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Canada filling in nicely...good to see it building up central-based as we close out October and open November soon... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif What?? Neb with snow? That maps broke! :-P 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 This map shows the "severity potential"....worst of winter is centered west/central....based on the way the LRC has transpired thus far, not including Nov yet, this makes some sense. Think I missed this before, what exactly is it based on, and is it only DJF? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Canada filling in nicely...good to see it building up central-based as we close out October and open November soon... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif What?? Neb with snow? That maps broke! :-PGood to see that snowpack built up there. Good signs ahead. Even parts of MI has some snow on it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Think I missed this before, what exactly is it based on, and is it only DJF?Yes, for boreal winter (DJF). I think it’s based on IF all teleconnections play ball for the analogs this met used (2010-11, 2007-07, 2000-01, 1998-99, 1995-96, 1992-93) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Canada filling in nicely...good to see it building up central-based as we close out October and open November soon... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif What?? Neb with snow? That maps broke! :-PIt’s like nature giving us a clue where the Hudson Bay vortex will be spinning frequently this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Yes, for boreal winter (DJF). I think it’s based on IF all teleconnections play ball for the analogs this met used (2010-11, 2007-07, 2000-01, 1998-99, 1995-96, 1992-93) How about 2001-2002? BTW you made a very minor typo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 How about 2001-2002? BTW you made a very minor typo.Those were his specific analogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Canada filling in nicely...good to see it building up central-based as we close out October and open November soon... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif What?? Neb with snow? That maps broke! :-PNebraska has snow OTG?! What???! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Nebraska has snow OTG?! What???!This has to be incorrect! LOL, believe it because it's true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Congrats Nebraska!! Here's hoping my streak of horrors ends soon as well. This winter is going to be different for a lot of people. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Yeah, if that Euro is correct, somebody on here will score big in the latter half of Nov. I like your analog research - nice work!Sometimes the analog process doesn't always work but it's fun anyway and there's solid evidence that it does actually work quite well when used correctly. It's like being a weather detective of sorts. I appreciate the compliment buddy. I'm hoping for 5 good months of winter this year starting today. Happy November!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Ironic that Nebraska has snow cover while the surrounding areas don't have snow covers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 First look at the month of December off the CFSv2 monthly.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20171101.201712.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20171101.201712.gif Boy, if we can get a colder look this could be a fun month across our sub forum... SST's don't look that bad either... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171101.201712.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Latest CanSIPS suggesting a repeat of last year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Latest CanSIPS suggesting a repeat of last year... Boy I have a REALLY hard time believing that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 The Ecmwf extended control 46 days say buckle up boys and girls were in for a ride! Good for most on here and especially for se Nebraska, southern half of ia, northern half of Illinois and up into Michigan gets plastered! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 The Ecmwf extended control 46 days say buckle up boys and girls were in for a ride! Good for most on here and especially for se Nebraska, southern half of ia, northern half of Illinois and up into Michigan gets plastered! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Boy I have a REALLY hard time believing that. ^^^ THIS (Cansips sucks imho, flush it asap! ) Boy, if we can get a colder look this could be a fun month across our sub forum... Likely, as that's been the end-of-month trend for the CFS. Not worried, tbh .. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Towards the middle of the month, we should be getting some final "Winter Outlooks". Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 The Ecmwf extended control 46 days say buckle up boys and girls were in for a ride! Good for most on here and especially for se Nebraska, southern half of ia, northern half of Illinois and up into Michigan gets plastered! MI is large, N to S. You talkin Grand Rapids and South, or north of there? Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Towards the middle of the month, we should be getting some final "Winter Outlooks". Thought SNOWday said they'd be updating on Nov 1st Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 MI is large, N to S. You talkin Grand Rapids and South, or north of there? Thx I'm talking about most Michigan except far eastern 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Thought SNOWday said they'd be updating on Nov 1st Tbh, not sure. Most likely, final updates will be happening soon. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Boy I have a REALLY hard time believing that.Why? Because it shows warmth? In reality, it's showing a similar gradient pattern that other models are also on board with. The difference here being the canSIPS decides to flex the the southeast ridge and lead to warmer anomalies further north and west. However, throw them all together and you can take away that there is a definite possibility of a strong temp anomaly gradient somewhere this winter, and will likely also serve as the primary storm track. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Why? Because it shows warmth? In reality, it's showing a similar gradient pattern that other models are also on board with. The difference here being the canSIPS decides to flex the the southeast ridge and lead to warmer anomalies further north and west. However, throw them all together and you can take away that there is a definite possibility of a strong temp anomaly gradient somewhere this winter, and will likely also serve as the primary storm track.I'm more skeptical of its Western niña idea. Keep in mind that many longer-range models have already been wrong. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 I'm more skeptical of its Western niña idea. Keep in mind that many longer-range models have already been wrong. Right, while uncommon, I do believe there is at least some precedence for this( I didn't do research, I just think there is IIRC). Because of this, currently giving that a little less weight. However, like I said. I am considering it as an outcome due to the presence of that gradient, which has shown up on almost every climo model, however some have it in the northern plains and some have it in the OV. This is the nature of long range climo forecasting and I am not discounting any of their respective solutions as an outcome because all are possibilities. The only thing I feel confident saying is that I believe that gradient is gonna be a common theme this winter. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Snow Advance Index (SAI) was negative this year, suggesting a stronger PV which is being depicted by the modeling. However, the placement of the PV will be the key and the deciding factor as to how the upper level flow sets up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Strong SER is temporary. Models are seeing it and feeding back. Analogs say it has to go away eventually. My mind is pretty well locked in at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 I'm more skeptical of its Western niña idea. Keep in mind that many longer-range models have already been wrong.This x10. No evidence to support anything further West than maybe a CP Niña. Also, still believe that last year's pattern was primarily QBO driven and we don't have that problem anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 The POAMA sure does look good for practically everyone on here...Dec-Feb paints above normal snowfall for much of our sub forum... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 Snow Advance Index (SAI) was negative this year, suggesting a stronger PV which is being depicted by the modeling. However, the placement of the PV will be the key and the deciding factor as to how the upper level flow sets up. As we discussed on your post from Cohen the other day. A negative SAI over in Siberia, isn't always a neg for us. In this year, I think quite the opposite actually, since we've seen a positive SAI recently on our side. Like you say, it's fine if the PV wants to be strong, as long as it's not hanging out over there but over our side, we'll be fine..to great 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 The POAMA sure does look good for practically everyone on here...Dec-Feb paints above normal snowfall for much of our sub forum... And, just like some of the monthly models showing the gradient further north than is likely, I feel those max snow areas may also end up further south than shown, especially beyond the Winter Solstice. (not that what's shown is horrible by any means, I just want that jackpot stuff ova SMI that's all ) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 I'm more skeptical of its Western niña idea. Keep in mind that many longer-range models have already been wrong. Right, while uncommon, I do believe there is at least some precedence for this( I didn't do research, I just think there is IIRC). Because of this, currently giving that a little less weight. However, like I said. I am considering it as an outcome due to the presence of that gradient, which has shown up on almost every climo model, however some have it in the northern plains and some have it in the OV. This is the nature of long range climo forecasting and I am not discounting any of their respective solutions as an outcome because all are possibilities. The only thing I feel confident saying is that I believe that gradient is gonna be a common theme this winter. Some models will over-play the SER prolly just due to their internal biases alone. Maybe they don't excel at reading the developing Strat pattern for instance. Is it possible that the gradient starts out as far north as the CANSIPS wants us to believe? Sure. But my money is on it ending up well south of that, and I'll cite the recent Euro trends as an example of why. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy that all the global models are bent on leaning warm, but they do tend to have known biases, and prolly all have a "blind spot" or two. It was mentioned elsewhere by a Met that the GEFS in the mid to long range is programmed to lean climo avgs, thus in a below normal regime it will look warm at a distance and then slowly correct itself as a given date gets closer. As for a central-based Nina, we need to hope that doesn't happen cuz the temp anom results are hideous for all of us. Fortunately, it's not showing signs of going that route presently. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2017 Report Share Posted November 2, 2017 And, just like some of the monthly models showing the gradient further north than is likely, I feel those max snow areas may also end up further south than shown, especially beyond the Winter Solstice. (not that what's shown is horrible by any means, I just want that jackpot stuff ova SMI that's all ) 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.