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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18


Tom

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Cant wait for some new Winter Outlooks to come out.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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November 22nd. Not sure where you got the Nov 1st idea? lol

 

Me either tbh, I went back and you're right it says mid to late Nov. I've looked at enough to get confused, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hopefully, we can see some 13-14' maps soon on here. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Me either tbh, I went back and you're right it says mid to late Nov. I've looked at enough to get confused, lol

Not necessarily, sometimes they come out sooner than that date. Keep an eye out for them. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So, just tossing this out there (in here  :lol:). With Marshall being the first state capital of Michigan (but well before any gov wx service existed) and then remaining a small burg after the capital was relocated to Lansing (so the Indians from OH were less likely to pull off an invasion), we've never been a level-1 site for historical wx data. But, I'm fairly confident in my construction of this Top-5 storms listing. It's been 40 yrs since a CAT-5 storm so I'm truly gunning for something to crack the top (2) this season. Jackson, 25 miles to my east has scored 20" twice (3-17-73, and 12-14-00) so we've had some close calls, and we've had a few nice storms recently just not the Biggest Dog storm that's still lurking over the horizon..

 

 

 

Jan 1978

 

 

 

Jan 1967

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, just tossing this out there (in here  :lol:). With Marshall being the first state capital of Michigan (but well before any gov wx service existed) and then remaining a small burg after the capital was relocated to Lansing (so the Indians from OH were less likely to pull off an invasion), we've never been a level-1 site for historical wx data. But, I'm fairly confident in my construction of this Top-5 storms listing. It's been 40 yrs since a CAT-5 storm so I'm truly gunning for something to crack the top (2) this season. Jackson, 25 miles to my east has scored 20" twice (3-17-73, and 12-14-00) so we've had some close calls, and we've had a few nice storms recently just not the Biggest Dog storm that's still lurking over the horizon..

 

attachicon.gif20171106 Marshall MI Top-5 snowstorms list.PNG

 

Jan 1978

 

attachicon.gifJan 1978 Snowstorm totals zoom-up.PNG

 

Jan 1967

 

attachicon.gifJan 1967 Snowstorm totals zoom-up.PNG

Jaster..I am feeling lucky this Winter. ;) :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The latest Euro weeklies suggest it is Game on as winter hits and holds through the Winter Solstice (end of run). I'll try to post maps a bit later...I'm a chef in the kitchen at the moment! #Winter

Sounds like it's going back to the 1988-89, 2000-01, 1995-96 look. Seems to match what I've thought so far. Winter is coming fast after the next 8 days.

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After analyzing the data, the SW ridge tries to fight back it into the central Plains through roughly the end of Thanksgiving week (skeptical), by end of November the pattern locks into Winter for the central/southern Plains.  Anyone from the Upper Midwest/Midwest/Lakes and east, end of November through December stay consistently cold and active.  The GL's are on fire and may have a repeat of what happened last December but not letting off as it did before Christmas.  Teleconnections are as follows: -AO/-NAO/-WPO  pattern from November 15th thru end of run.  

 

DN-0cyeW0AAo4_T.jpg

 

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Sounds like it's going back to the 1988-89, 2000-01, 1995-96 look. Seems to match what I've thought so far. Winter is coming fast after the next 8 days.

Ya buddy!  I'm going to have an internal battle of either staying here for Thanksgiving or going out to AZ/Cali.  I love spending time out there and soaking up some sun at the pool before winter settles in, but man, I can't miss out on any snow storms!

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Ya buddy! I'm going to have an internal battle of either staying here for Thanksgiving or going out to AZ/Cali. I love spending time out there and soaking up some sun at the pool before winter settles in, but man, I can't miss out on any snow storms!

Yikes! That is a tough call. This Thanksgiving has "classic" written all over it though.

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In case people don't believe how awful Nebraska has been for snow, take a look at snowfall amounts for last winter in the Central part of the state.  (I live in Grand Island)  Keep in mind normal snowfall is around 30 inches.  Yeaahhhhhhhhh...  Nobody on this forum can tell us Nebraskans not to be on edge or complain when models don't look good.  This is what we've been dealing with!  Utterly pitiful

post-133-0-94274400-1510019154_thumb.jpg

post-133-0-29286300-1510019161_thumb.jpg

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In case people don't believe how awful Nebraska has been for snow, take a look at snowfall amounts for last winter in the Central part of the state.  (I live in Grand Island)  Keep in mind normal snowfall is around 30 inches.  Yeaahhhhhhhhh...  Nobody on this forum can tell us Nebraskans not to be on edge or complain when models don't look good.  This is what we've been dealing with!  Utterly pitiful

That's too many shades of cat puke brown! You guys need some storms...bad!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I thought things were supposed to “start” sooner than the end of November? Still plenty of time left in the winter obviously but it seems like things keep getting pushed back?

I think there's always a tendency to hope for the early kick-off, but even in 2013 we didn't get our first decent storm til Dec 13th. All the cold blasts during the prior month brought very little snow.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I thought things were supposed to “start” sooner than the end of November? Still plenty of time left in the winter obviously but it seems like things keep getting pushed back?

That’s according to the Euro weeklies for those out in the Plains. Winter has already started up north. As for the rest of us in the Midwest/Lakes and points east, it gets going Thanksgiving week into December.

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That’s according to the Euro weeklies for those out in the Plains. Winter has already started up north. As for the rest of us in the Midwest/Lakes and points east, it gets going Thanksgiving week into December.

 

The Plains go from ND down to TX. Did you mean specifically NE/KS peeps? And by up north, did you mean MN? I think that's the only place we have regular posters from. Don't recall any UP of Mich peeps.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Plains go from ND down to TX. Did you mean specifically NE/KS peeps? And by up north, did you mean MN? I think that's the only place we have regular posters from. Don't recall any UP of Mich peeps.

Yes, for the central Plains peeps, but I would be skeptical. Up north = Dakotas/MN/N WI/UP

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Jaster..I am feeling lucky this Winter. ;) :D

Me too bud! Here's to hoping we both can cash in with a Big Dog! In my post I forgot to mention that the number 1 & 2 ranked storms featured 34" & 31" jackpot zones within one county of Marshall, so with a little luck, it's certainly within the realm of possibility to see 25+ inches locally. Just a matter of when??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Me too bud! Here's to hoping we both can cash in with a Big Dog! In my post I forgot to mention that the number 1 & 2 ranked storms featured 34" & 31" jackpot zones within one county of Marshall, so with a little luck, it's certainly within the realm of possibility to see 25+ inches locally. Just a matter of when??

I am waiting for the "Big Dog" this Winter as well...the big question like you said is, When?! Overall, it will be a great Winter here in all of MI.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko, i like your enthusiasm, but thats the kind of thinking that got me majorly disapointed in the end. Aim the bar low and you will never be disapointed lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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I'm also hearing the latest easterly QBO readings have made its way down to 50mb which set the stage for anomalous blocking this season.

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/928196634466426881

 

The warm biased NMME has trended colder/wetter for the majority of our sub forum in it's recent run.

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/927840505500536834

 

DOBQoX-UMAA7F9-.jpg

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Euro monthlies came out yesterday and they are advertising a "front loaded" winter...

 

Dec..

 

DOEaCW8WsAANPz-.jpg

 

Jan...

 

DOEaCXIWsAAH9xl.jpg

 

 

Feb...

 

DOEaCXIWAAAhaYN.jpg

 

Mar...

 

DOEaCXHXUAAxRIj.jpg

If February was added on the cold side as well, it would be a perfect scenario. February is known to be a very stormy month. (but, I'll take N,D,J as cold, snowy months)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If February was added on the cold side as well, it would be a perfect scenario. February is known to be a very stormy month. (but, I'll take N,D,J as cold, snowy months)

I agree 100%.  I"m tired of seeing back loaded winters, even though, we had a tease of a front loaded winter last December that ended with a torch and melted our snow, began January brutally cold with no snow cover and brown grass, finishing off met winter with a month long torch of Feb.  #disgusting

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I want the old run back.

It was warmer though, but the overall trends are looking better in practically all the modeling, likely due to the increased possibilities of an East-Based La Nina as well as blocking.  You guys will do good out there.

 

Meantime, here is Wx Bell's Pioneer models Nov-Mar 500mb forecast...

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It was warmer though, but the overall trends are looking better in practically all the modeling, likely due to the increased possibilities of an East-Based La Nina as well as blocking.  You guys will do good out there.

 

Meantime, here is Wx Bell's Pioneer models Nov-Mar 500mb forecast...

 

Ofc, it's a LR call by the models, so taking with the usual salt grains, but Idk what the Euro could be seeing that would cause such a hard flip to warmth for the east in what's basically the heart of winter. It's like it took last year and ran with it, lol. If the Pioneer is truly thru March, that would make far more sense to me. Even if the Nina is not as strong, or waning after the new year, there's still some lag effects on the atmosphere. The other drivers may relax a bit (AO/NAO, etc) for periods, but an entire reversal back to where we've been the last two years seems less likely once this pattern gets really entrenched. I may be ready for a break by Feb 1st tbh, but I think there's plenty of valid reasons this doesn't just snap out of it like 76-77 did. That one was colder much earlier than this one. And 00-01 wasn't really warm after Dec, just snow-less for most. I feel seasons like 81-82, 83-84, or 13-14 longevity makes more sense, especially with the past (2) winters around here. Maybe the Euro is just chucking warmth peeps a bone to keep 'em from jumping off tall buildings or something. There's one dude from IL on the other board that posts about the current below normal Nov like the sky just fell on us because it's not sunny and 75 every day like the past couple yrs.  :rolleyes:   

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I agree 100%.  I"m tired of seeing back loaded winters, even though, we had a tease of a front loaded winter last December that ended with a torch and melted our snow, began January brutally cold with no snow cover and brown grass, finishing off met winter with a month long torch of Feb.  #disgusting

 

You NIL peeps had it rough last winter. At least on this side of the lake, Dec's 10 days of winter delivered the real-deal effects. That string of CPC hvy snow hazards were for real and 27+ inches at mby proved it. Then the Feb 1st clipper just grazed yby like the ultimate face slap. You were made to wait until March something when you finally were chucked a bone after such nice wx for weeks-n-weeks. I was done with winter and looking for spring by that time so wasn't even too jelly tbh. 

 

I'd say you're owed some real-deal winter and look out when it shows up! Chicago does everything BIG you know!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I agree 100%.  I"m tired of seeing back loaded winters, even though, we had a tease of a front loaded winter last December that ended with a torch and melted our snow, began January brutally cold with no snow cover and brown grass, finishing off met winter with a month long torch of Feb.  #disgusting

That is the correct definition when you are describing brutal cold and brown grass. Might as well be in the Caribbean vacationing if Winter will be acting that way!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Ofc, it's a LR call by the models, so taking with the usual salt grains, but Idk what the Euro could be seeing that would cause such a hard flip to warmth for the east in what's basically the heart of winter. It's like it took last year and ran with it, lol. If the Pioneer is truly thru March, that would make far more sense to me. Even if the Nina is not as strong, or waning after the new year, there's still some lag effects on the atmosphere. The other drivers may relax a bit (AO/NAO, etc) for periods, but an entire reversal back to where we've been the last two years seems less likely once this pattern gets really entrenched. I may be ready for a break by Feb 1st tbh, but I think there's plenty of valid reasons this doesn't just snap out of it like 76-77 did. That one was colder much earlier than this one. And 00-01 wasn't really warm after Dec, just snow-less for most. I feel seasons like 81-82, 83-84, or 13-14 longevity makes more sense, especially with the past (2) winters around here. Maybe the Euro is just chucking warmth peeps a bone to keep 'em from jumping off tall buildings or something. There's one dude from IL on the other board that posts about the current below normal Nov like the sky just fell on us because it's not sunny and 75 every day like the past couple yrs.  :rolleyes:   

 

LOL, I bet he's not the only one that feels that way.  Many peeps around here are already caught off guard on the cold this morning, can't imagine what they will be saying on Friday with a few flakes of snow flying coming off of Lake Michigan!  I had a feeling this November would shock a lot of peeps in the coldest locations.  I'm pretty much "all in" that this pattern will be a pleasant one for nearly all of us, esp us posters near the GL's/Midwest/OV.  The heart of the LRC is turning out to produce a dominant feature for a long term long wave trough across most of our sub forum, with the only exception I see the farther south and west you go there is room for riding poking into the pattern.  As the conductors say, "all aboard...!!!!!."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9IIA7ib_W0

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After some analysis this morning, striking similarities in the temp anomalies to the opening week of Nov '82 compared to Nov '17, in fact, this year is bolder with the colder across the north.  Can't argue the cold has been impressive, as well as, the warmth to the S/SE.

 

 

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After some analysis this morning, striking similarities in the temp anomalies to the opening week of Nov '82 compared to Nov '17, in fact, this year is bolder with the colder across the north.  Can't argue the cold has been impressive, as well as, the warmth to the S/SE.

Are there any analogs that even come close to this year?

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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