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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18


Tom

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@ maps

 

Nov '82 was leading to the super-Nino, did you mean to show '81? I hope we're not trying to say this will lead to a similar outcome  :huh:

 

It is weird tho how it is often really cold/wintery in autumns just prior to the Nino flip at the holidays. And it seems like the stronger the Nino the worse the contrast. There's too little difference tbh, only the flip happening or not which ofc is the major deal maker..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Are there any analogs that even come close to this year?

 

For Montana? I doubt it - look at that. That's Barney on 'roids!  :o   :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Are there any analogs that even come close to this year?

I don't think it was as I was just using it as an example to how the temp anomalies were similar to that year.  Nov '81 was blow torch warm compared to this year.

 

Nov '95 is an analog being thrown out there and it to was impressively cold...

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The maps of Nov '82 was prob not a good idea to throw it out there as it is not an analog to this year's season.  Cold autumns during Nino's are almost always an inverse reaction during the winter seasons that produce warm winters.  Maybe the cold November that is anticipated around here this year is a good sign since we are heading towards a La Nina which doesn't have the same atmospheric effects comparing it to a cold November during a Nino???  IMO, cold starting second half's of Autumn during a Nina sets a much better tune, esp with a -QBO.  

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I didn't realize that Nov '95 was cold for just about the entire CONUS, sheesh was that widespread or what? In NMI, we were about to get hit with a bliz on Vet's Day that fortunately was a Saturday so I just stayed in and listened to the wind whipping the 10+ inches that hit. The classic NW winds swirling the snow caked onto the window screens along the rear windows of the house and produced a snow globe effect as you looked outside. Like you were right in it - neat effects with true bliz conditions. There was another major storm that focused a bit south with the 15" jackpot a bit before Thanksgiving so that by Turkey Day it was more like typical Christmas conditions. Only problem was gun deer hunting runs from Nov 15th to the 30th which meant no snowmobiling until after dark, a minor inconvenience.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:)  So, is Chicago ready for some frequent SNOW??  Would be nice to see another historic stretch like this, eh?

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The sun has been Sleeping Zzzzzzzzzzzz...on a current 8-day stretch of no sun spots after a brief spike in Sept I think it was.

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2017 total: 76 days (24%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

 

The geomagnetic chart below shows the latest trends...

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

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Meanwhile, in Eurasia, Nassoo much...

 

Yeah, their loss is our gain it would seem. I think it has to be that way for one side or the other to get an historic winter, the PV placement has to be consistently here or there respectively for the majority of the season. The staying power of the current upper air/strat pattern will be key to determining how big the potential is for this winter, and whether it can join the elite list of harsh ones for our region?

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/03/06/the-four-worst-winters-ever-in-chicago/

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I solidly believe that there are no analogs that even come close to how this year is shaping up to be. Truly a mystery.

I agree when looking at the late summer into fall dry spell and than the September heat wave and then the warm and wet October. There are no other “recorded” years with all of that happening. We shall see how this all plays out.

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Didn't those jerks get an awesome Winter last year while we go hosed and torched?

 

So, if I get a great winter I'll be a jerk next year? Is that how it works in your little world?  :rolleyes:  As if there's a conspiracy over cold winters or something. Those people would prolly love a break from what we call rare. They don't have all the toys and slopes and such to actually enjoy the cold and deep snow. As we saw in those horse rancher videos it actually makes their life a lot more difficult if anything. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another reason this fall is strongly resembling 2013 is that it has been bone dry in Central California. Since Oct 1st, 2017 I have only seen 0.03” of rain. Last year at this time I already seen 1.39” of rain starting from Oct 1st-Nov 9th 2016. I wonder if there is correlation of wet winters in California and mild winters in the Midwest and vice versa.

 

http://www.countyofsb.org/pwd/water/downloads/hydro/198dailys.pdf

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So, if I get a great winter I'll be a jerk next year? Is that how it works in your little world?  :rolleyes:  As if there's a conspiracy over cold winters or something. Those people would prolly love a break from what we call rare. They don't have all the toys and slopes and such to actually enjoy the cold and deep snow. As we saw in those horse rancher videos it actually makes their life a lot more difficult if anything. 

:lol: :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I agree. I'm sure Russia likes mild every now and then. They had some of their coldest weather in decades last year.

If I am not mistaken, I believe their temps hit the -20sF. Just insane!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another reason this fall is strongly resembling 2013 is that it has been bone dry in Central California. Since Oct 1st, 2017 I have only seen 0.03” of rain. Last year at this time I already seen 1.39” of rain starting from Oct 1st-Nov 9th 2016. I wonder if there is correlation of wet winters in California and mild winters in the Midwest and vice versa.

 

http://www.countyofsb.org/pwd/water/downloads/hydro/198dailys.pdf

Historically in winter the correlation between troughing in the Midwest/central states east and ridging off the Pacific and over the PNW, Cali, SE AK and the desert SW are linked.

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Another reason this fall is strongly resembling 2013 is that it has been bone dry in Central California. Since Oct 1st, 2017 I have only seen 0.03” of rain. Last year at this time I already seen 1.39” of rain starting from Oct 1st-Nov 9th 2016. I wonder if there is correlation of wet winters in California and mild winters in the Midwest and vice versa.

 

http://www.countyofsb.org/pwd/water/downloads/hydro/198dailys.pdf

Ridge there, trough here is the key. Our weather pattern here has been very active since the start of October. We had maybe a 1.5 week stretch of boring weather in mid-October and soon to have a week of boring, mild weather next week but that's it.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I forgot the Euro Weeklies came out last night and they are basically a carbon copy of what they showed last run.  Something of concern, is how strong the west coast ridge is as the model is trying to push it into the central/southern Plains through the month of November.  I am skeptical, however, since the LRC suggests a central CONUS active storm track during Thanksgiving week.  Folks in the Upper MW/Midwest/Lakes continue to show BN temps with plenty of storm systems. 

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I forgot the Euro Weeklies came out last night and they are basically a carbon copy of what they showed last run.  Something of concern, is how strong the west coast ridge is as the model is trying to push it into the central/southern Plains through the month of November.  I am skeptical, however, since the LRC suggests a central CONUS active storm track during Thanksgiving week.  Folks in the Upper MW/Midwest/Lakes continue to show BN temps with plenty of storm systems.

 

Sweetness! Thx for updating/sharing your knowledge from those. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 at ORD.  That is the earliest sub 20 degree reading to occur since November 8, 1995 (1996 and 1997 both did it just a bit later on Nov 12)

 

From last evening. Posting here cuz analog has been mentioned. Seeing little pieces of all the best analogs touted.  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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http://www.dillonheraldonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2017-18-Winter-Highlights-ADC.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's In-accuweather; I'm happy will see the exact opposite! They are worse than the NWS when it comes to winter forecasts!

 

I agree to a point. Their map gives the false impression that nobody outside that one region will see any snow which is a joke! That snow region should be the above avg zone, surround by another zone of avg to slightly above avg snows.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That is a carbon copy of the GFS from 20 days ago to today run after run. Haha.

Same thought! I saw that and thought "it looks like they just ran with a small portion of recent trends as if the entire winter will never see the pattern re-align for even one week"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Oh my god that is literally a spitting image of my map that i made hahaha wow!

:lol: :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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CFSv2 January outlook is a Barney rampage over N America

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Coutesy of BAMwx. What a contrast from last Torchvember!

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CFSv2 January outlook is a Barney rampage over N America

 

attachicon.gifDOUL0hiUIAA3NEj.jpeg

That deep red color is bitter cold -10s to -20s I bet.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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