September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Wilma was deepest in Atlantic @ 882, After 17 yrs, Gilbert got bumped to 2nd place @ 888. Camille was thought to be strongest but reanalysis downgraded her pressure and winds from 190 mph to 175 mph sustained. Labor Day of '35 over the Keys remains lowest baro over land and most intense landfall @ 892 followed by Gilbert @ 900 mb. So yeah, getting into "rare air" if some of these models are close!

The funny thing with Camille, was that back then, all meteorologists were not forecasting anything about this hurricane moving up the coast. They had it going out to sea. Well, L.I got a big surprise!!! Lots of damage there as the hurricane roared in.

[Tom]

Canadian seeing a similar look in the N/NE PAC this month...it has certainly trended with the cold pocket N of Hawaii...

 

[Tom]

Hello Meteorological Autumn!  The weather outside fits the feeling of met Fall.  Still a bit breezy, with a 59F temp and may top out at around 70F today.  The GL's are on waking up on the chilly side...

 

[jaster220]

Hello Meteorological Autumn!  The weather outside fits the feeling of met Fall.  Still a bit breezy, with a 59F temp and may top out at around 70F today.  The GL's are on waking up on the chilly side...

 

 

And a gorgeous sunrise of pink clouds courtesy of blow-off from Harvey's remnants to our south. Stellar final weekend of summer on tap. Enjoy all you peeps!

[Tom]

Even though it will be a warm Labor Day weekend throughout the Plains/Midwest, DP's will remain comfortably in the 50's, and maybe low 60's...

 

 

 

 

Labor Day...

 

 

[jaster220]

Another burst of late summer heat will make Labor Day feel like the season it is - summer. Great for those wanting to enjoy the last camping trip to the northland, and beach-n-boat fun. Wish that was me, lol..

 

In the meantime, some interior locales still at or below freezing at 9 am in the UP. That's gotta help with color changes.

 

 

 

 

The warm-up doesn't surprise me really. Everything has it's season, and the progress of autumn chill is always postponed until any tropical stuff plays out. Most evident was '89 which was one of the most aggressive cold autumns for the GL's but even that took a break when Hugo was taking a similar path as Irma. The lull in the cold progress doesn't mean we won't get back to that once the tropics play their cards.

[Tom]

Another burst of late summer heat will make Labor Day feel like the season it is - summer. Great for those wanting to enjoy the last camping trip to the northland, and beach-n-boat fun. Wish that was me, lol..

 

In the meantime, some interior locales still at or below freezing at 9 am in the UP. That's gotta help with color changes.

 

20170901 UP 9am temps.PNG

 

 

The warm-up doesn't surprise me really. Everything has it's season, and the progress of autumn chill is always postponed until any tropical stuff plays out. Most evident was '89 which was one of the most aggressive cold autumns for the GL's but even that took a break when Hugo was taking a similar path as Irma. The lull in the cold progress doesn't mean we won't get back to that once the tropics play their cards.

 

Agree, we may have a warm up after next weeks cool down if Hurricane Irma hits somewhere along the EC.  Mid month warmer trends???  More so, the farther west you go...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Sheesh!  I just took a morning stroll around my neighborhood and I didn't expect it to be that brisk outside.  My hands were cold, nose was running, and my head was cold...if it wasn't for the sunshine I prob would need a hat!  Autumn has welcomed us over here near the Lakes without a doubt.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day out there with temps here in the Macomb, MI area holding steady at 55F. A nice cool breeze out there.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm thinking we see an above normal September in Lincoln. There should be hot/cold swings,  but the hot will win out I think. I am going to place my money on +1.7* for the mean temperature this month.

[westMJim]

I know this in not the right location for this post and I also have it in the August discussion as well.

 

 August 2017 is now in the history books. For most of Michigan the month was cooler than average and is some locations it was the coolest August in many years. Here are some of the mean temperatures and the departure from average for several locations in Michigan. Here in Grand Rapids mean 68.7° (-2.1) coolest August since 2004. Lansing 68.0° (-1.8) Muskegon 68.6° (-1.3) Detroit 71.1° (-0.9) Flint 66.9° (-1.9) Saginaw 67.9° (-0.9) Alpena 65.7° (+0.3) the only location with above average mean. Houghton Lake 63.7° (-1.3) The Sault 64.3° (-0.3) Marquette 59.3° (-4.4) At Marquette this August was the coolest since 1992. There were no 90° days at any of the above locations in August and there more likely that not there were none in Michigan this August. There were frost at both Marquette and Houghton Lake and several other locations in Michigan this past August. 

[Niko]

Harvey has weakened considerably and believe it or not, SMI will see a little bit of Harvey. Oh, just a few passing clouds, thats all.

[Thunder98]

Went down to a chilly 42F this morning in Eau Claire. Meanwhile in Orcutt, It's going to be very hot and humid this Labor Day weekend.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Went down to a chilly 42F this morning in Eau Claire. Meanwhile in Orcutt, It's going to be very hot and humid this Labor Day weekend.

 

EauClairedailywx.PNG

Down to 43F here in SEMI and LDW is going to be quite warm here as well. Temps might be pushing mid 80's. Tbh, not sure if that will be near record high temp.

[Tom]

It'll be interesting to see how the trough swinging through picks up or steers Hurricane Irma.  Occasionally, storms as such can phase into a big trough somewhere in the East.  I think Sandy did that a while back and I remember days upon days of Northeast winds and chilly weather.  The way the pattern has acted lately, we may have another blocking HP that would allow a similar solution.

[OKwx2k4]

If Irma misses the trough and wanders into the Gulf, it could be like a modern day Andrew across southern Florida all over again.

[Tom]

If Irma misses the trough and wanders into the Gulf, it could be like a modern day Andrew across southern Florida all over again.

Lot's of options on the table for sure, but oddly enough, the 00z EPS members from last night trended towards the GEFS believe it or not.  We'll see how the models trend over the next few days.

[Niko]

My Summer Greek Island I go too. This is the spot to be.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro trending towards the GFS solution all along and a possible major Cat 4 or 5 storm along the SE Coast...

 

[Tom]

12z Euro with a Cat 5...holy crap!

 

[Niko]

Residents......up and down the east coast should be on alert. Plenty of time for this track to change. Let the hype begin!

[Niko]

I am currently being visited by Harvey. Just some pleasant high clouds ova my region, with no threat at all in my vicinity. ( Harvey knows better than to flood my area or else I will kick his a** )

[OKwx2k4]

From my nws forecast page.

 

"Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

 

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 49. North wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.

 

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 5 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon."

 

 

Can you say niiiice!!!

[james1976]

18z GFS has Irma with a direct hit on NYC next weekend. Long ways out of course....

[Niko]

Big difference in models continue with Irma. 2 models have a difference of 2000 miles, so, still long ways to go.

 

Harvey victims continue to suffer and will continue to do so for a long time to come. Some celebrities are chipping in to help, so that's good.

[Niko]

My temps are really cooling off. Currently at 54F. Getting down to a crisp 43F.

[Tom]

Rise and shine!  Parts of N IL got down into the upper 30's this morning...surprisingly, there are many record lows being reported across the Midwest/Lakes/NE...

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Here in SEMI, my temps throughout the Summer ended up being above normal and below normal precipitation.

[Niko]

A chilly low of 42F IMBY this morning...Brrrrr.

[Tom]

A chilly low of 42F IMBY this morning...Brrrrr.

Did you have any frost?  I noticed my neighbors car had a frosty dew on it and on the grass.

 

Some morning lows today...

 

 

 

Temps recovering after a chilly start. AM Lows: 37° Michigan City 38° Rochelle 39° Channahon 39° Sugar Grove 39° Marengo

[Niko]

Did you have any frost?  I noticed my neighbors car had a frosty dew on it and on the grass.

 

Some morning lows today...

No frost IMBY, but, it certainly came close. The first thing I did this morning was look out my window to see if any frosty dew was on my grass or car tops.

 

 

Did you have any frost in your neck of the woods this morning?

[Tom]

No frost IMBY, but, it certainly came close. The first thing I did this morning was look out my window to see if any frosty dew was on my grass or car tops.

 

 

Did you have any frost in your neck of the woods this morning?

Not really, just the colder surfaces on car rooftops for what looked like a bit of frost.  I know many inland locals that dipped into the 30's had patchy frost and in the ag fields across the Midwest.

[Tom]

Edit: Not records, just really low temps across MI....

 

[Minny_Weather]

I know this first week of football feels like the sixth week of football for some outside. It did not get cold overnight here, just around 60, but there was definitely a breeze. 2-3 hot days to go then we get a mega cooldown here.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day out there today. Harvey's clouds are done screwing with my area. Deep blue skies currently and a crisp 54F.

[jaster220]

Looks like we bottomed at 43 here in Marshall. Spent the night under the thick comforter for the first time in months. Gorgeous weekend on tap though.

[Niko]

Looks like we bottomed at 43 here in Marshall. Spent the night under the thick comforter for the first time in months. Gorgeous weekend on tap though.

My area beat your area. I got down to 42F in Macomb.

 

As for a gorgeous weekend, I'd say 95% and the reason is because we have a CF that will be approaching us and that CF will trigger some nice t''stms ova our region in the pm hour on Monday. Strong to possibly severe weather. A mostly dry holiday weekend indeed, except for the latter part, which will be fun to see some weather action.

[Niko]

@ Irma

 

A little more west and MI will feel some winds.

[Tom]

I ventured out to the beach on LM up by the northern burbs and the waves from yesterday eroded a good 10-15 yards of the beach compared to last weekend when I was here. Clear Blues skies with a slight wind off the lake is keeping temps still in the upper 60's but the sun is feeling fantastic.

[Tom]

@ Irma

 

A little more west and MI will feel some winds.

12z GFS takes the storm right near your place...lol