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September 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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12z GFS takes the storm right near your place...lol

That would be something to look forward too. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Harvey's moisture is now targeting the EC. Soon, it will be outta here for good. I think everyone has had enough with him, especially those folks in Texas.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's very pleasant in Wisconsin, meanwhile it's 103F in Santa Maria where I live, that's almost as hot as Las Vegas right now.

 

post-1201-0-17989600-1504383847.png

It looks like you people there are under a heatwave, especially for this time of the year.

 

Is it normal to get this hot at this time of the year? :unsure:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It looks like you people there are under a heatwave, especially for this time of the year.

 

Is it normal to get this hot at this time of the year?

 

I usually see 100's a couple times a year or every other year. How ever the dew points are much higher than normal and the air quality is not that great either. Moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia will move up here make it more muggy and bring a chance thunderstorms to everywhere in Central and Southern California.

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I usually see 100's a couple times a year or every other year. How ever the dew points are much higher than normal and the air quality is not that great either. Moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia will move up here make it more muggy and bring a chance thunderstorms to everywhere in Central and Southern California.

Wow, didn't even know about that TS.  I bet that moisture will cool ya down a bit and most importantly help out with any wildfires out there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is my wx forecast for the next several days. Very warm lows tonight and a good chance of thunderstorms Sunday Night.

 

attachicon.gifSantaMariaNWSforecast25.PNG

Man, you will be baking, but at least it cools down by mid-week. Your storm chances are not that impressive. Hopefully, a storm pops up to cool ya down.

 

Here, its a whole different story. Cool and cloudy with temps near 65F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, you will be baking, but at least it cools down by mid-week. Your storm chances are not that impressive. Hopefully, a storm pops up to cool ya down.

 

Here, its a whole different story. Cool and cloudy with temps near 65F.

It has bee

Man, you will be baking, but at least it cools down by mid-week. Your storm chances are not that impressive. Hopefully, a storm pops up to cool ya down.

 

Here, its a whole different story. Cool and cloudy with temps near 65F.

It has been the opposite here, but I'm pretty sure our region has seen the late summer heatwave as well. And possibly even hit 100 in early Sept. Glad it's been a while.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Totally unexpected batch of rain just passed through SWMI. Not much but night timing will maximize any benefits to the thirsting veggitation and help with dustiness.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It has bee

It has been the opposite here, but I'm pretty sure our region has seen the late summer heatwave as well. And possibly even hit 100 in early Sept. Glad it's been a while.

I really don't like late Summer heatwaves tbh. I find them annoying because typically you are suppose to encounter them during the Summer. Right now, coolish weather is what I dig for. Ofc, mild to warm weather is fine as well, but nothing too hot ( to specify in detail...more like near 80 at the most this time of the year, if not upper 70s).

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Totally unexpected batch of rain just passed through SWMI. Not much but night timing will maximize any benefits to the thirsting veggitation and help with dustiness.

Harvey almost gave me some unexpected rain as well, but no cigar.  Maybe some sprinkles at the most, probably not even getting that. Dry weather continues. Hopefully the CF Monday night can provide some water ova our dry region. Had to use my Sprinklers again earlier this evening.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently a pleasant evening here in SEMI. Partly Cloudy skies and temps are hovering in the 50s. Not as chilly as last night.

 

Harvey's rains are drenching in the NE and coastline now. They are getting drenched.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's a beautiful Sunday morning here in Chi!  We are heading out on the water to the Fox Chain O'Lakes and likely end up on Lake Petite's Sand Bar.  Near perfection today with a high in the low 80's, ample sunshine and no humidity!  Have a great day everyone.

 

Meantime, overnight runs on both the EPS/GEFS showing more consistency of a direct hit somewhere near the Carolina's.  If this track sticks, it sorta reminds me of last year's hurricane Matthew's track that hugged the FL/SE Coastline.  Irma is ofc a different caliber of a storm but nonetheless could hold similar characteristics.

 

http://contours.hamweather.net/wxwnJ8ks83jnvl3/contours/png/640x480/tropics/2016_NT_14_z1_track.jpg

 

DIzBstkUIAAvl0i.jpg

 

 

DIzCF__VoAEVucZ.jpg

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In other global news, Winter is starting early in Russia/Siberia as we open September.  Big trough develops in this part of the world and likely continues over the next 2 weeks.  Interesting developments across this region, esp since most of western Russia had a year without a summer.

 

gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_asia_10.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_asia_10.png

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ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png

 

Euro is similar with 00z GFS but 18 hours apart though. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Harvey almost gave me some unexpected rain as well, but no cigar.  Maybe some sprinkles at the most, probably not even getting that. Dry weather continues. Hopefully the CF Monday night can provide some water ova our dry region. Had to use my Sprinklers again earlier this evening.

Dryness? Sprinklers? Didn't you just have flash flooding?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dryness? Sprinklers? Didn't you just have flash flooding?

I wish my area had flash flooding. If I did, I wouldn't be using my Sprinklers.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gorgeous day today. Lots of sunshine and quite warm I might add with temps topping well into the 70s. Tomorrow temps are expected to be into the 80s with a nice CF approaching late in the day. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@ Thunder98

 

Did your area break any record high temps today?

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Rain in my forecast for Thursday. This trough (Upper Level Low) could play a major role on Irma's path. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Both CFSv2 and Euro weeklies are advertising an overall above normal pattern for us Plainsers, and in most cases the rest of this sub, for the rest of this month after this next awesome cooldown. Looks like things may cool off again in mid-October if those models are on point.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Happy Labor Day folks!  Not a bad way to kick start the day with a pleasant SW breeze and warm morning.  Boating yesterday was so much fun and there ended being a lot of boats that came out to soak it all in.  Saturday was rather chilly and when I spoke to some folks who went out on the water they said it was pretty dead.  I will say though, the water was pretty chilly.  I think it had to be in the upper 60's from all the chilly nights last month.

 

 

Both CFSv2 and Euro weeklies are advertising an overall above normal pattern for us Plainsers, and in most cases the rest of this sub, for the rest of this month after this next awesome cooldown. Looks like things may cool off again in mid-October if those models are on point.

We need to see what happens with Irma and where this storm tracks.  Both GEFS/EPS now taking more of a direct hit for FL and wouldn't ya know it, my brother and his family are flying down to St Petersburg on the 8th!

 

06z GFS takes a direct hit...No!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_30.png

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If Irma does take a track up through FL from the south, I think there is a good chance the placement of the HP centered over the Lakes it will allow this storm to slow down and spin somewhere maybe in the southern Midwest/OV region.  In turn, this pattern usually causes a -NAO to develop and the pattern gets blocked up.  I think us GL's poster will see a NE flow for days later this weekend into early next week.  My hunch is it may phase into a bigger trough over the East Day 10-15.  We'll see how this unfolds.

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Yep, High was 101F yesterday, the old daily record high of 88F got crushed.

 

When do you usually start seeing tour 1st snow?

Dang...that is too hot for me. Congrats on the record.

 

Usually here in SEMI from mid to late November is when we can get the first accumulating snowfall.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently, cloudy to mostly cloudy and temps @ 61F. It looks and feels like Autumn outside. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If Irma does take a track up through FL from the south, I think there is a good chance the placement of the HP centered over the Lakes it will allow this storm to slow down and spin somewhere maybe in the southern Midwest/OV region.  In turn, this pattern usually causes a -NAO to develop and the pattern gets blocked up.  I think us GL's poster will see a NE flow for days later this weekend into early next week.  My hunch is it may phase into a bigger trough over the East Day 10-15.  We'll see how this unfolds.

True, my extended forecast says showers and chilly temps. They must be referring to Irma remnants.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The front has arrived here way ahead of schedule. Upper 60s with an epic northerly wind now. All my windows are open. We were supposed to get into the lower 80s today, but I doubt that's happening now.

I looked at the location of the front this morning and it was much farther south than earlier progged by the models.  I believe the GFS showed it arriving late night while the Euro being earlier in the day.  Enjoy the cooler day!

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Who's ready for some Lake Effect rain showers???  GEFS were not off their rockers about a week ago when they were showing above normal precip off the GL's.  12z NAM 3km showing a nice lake plume signature into N IN Wed am...Waterspout season continues...

 

 

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_49.png

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I have a feeling parts of the Arrowhead and U.P. may not get out of the 40's/low 50's if there is a thick overcast Tue/Wed period.  Pretty darn chilly if that transpires!  They have had it rough since August.  If this continues into Oct/Nov this will be an intriguing sign for the cold season near the Lakes.

 

Plains/Midwest posters should look out for Frosts Wed am...

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_48.png

 

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_41.png

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I have a feeling parts of the Arrowhead and U.P. may not get out of the 40's/low 50's if there is a thick overcast Tue/Wed period.  Pretty darn chilly if that transpires!  They have had it rough since August.  If this continues into Oct/Nov this will be an intriguing sign for the cold season near the Lakes.

 

Plains/Midwest posters should look out for Frosts Wed am...

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_48.png

 

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_41.png

Those NAM models have a funny temp look across C IA. I assume its seeing some cloud cover.

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