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Chris
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Looks like a hurricane hitting Texas in 6 days on the 12Z ECMWF... or is that still Harvey?    <_>

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

This run is worse. Between 50-60" of rain.

 

 

Actually a little less for Houston... but also showing an area of 50+ inches to the south.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_austin_33.png

 

 

Harvey is officially a major hurricane, with sustained winds now at 120mph. Pressure still dropping, and the co-centric eyewalls have consolidated. Barring dry air entrainment, Harvey could make a run at 130mph+.

 

 

Corpus Christi is going underwater already according to this live stream.

 

https://livestormchasing.com/stream/brandon.clement

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GOES-16 continues to produce beautiful satellite images. Harvey eye is about to hit the coast.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/data/goes16/houston/02/houston_02_20170825210217.jpg

 

 

Radar is depicting a swath of monsterous winds up to 145mph just offshore, about to move in near Rockport. This is mentioned in the "extreme wind warning" just issued.

 

Flight level winds are over 150mph now. Harvey is trying to achieve cat4 status just before landfall.

 

 

Harvey is now a category 4. Strengthening right up to landfall.

 

 

Harvey is a Cat 4 now. The speed has also slowed a ton. Anyone who didn't evacuate around Aransas County is a dead duck.

 

 

Only about 1.5 hours of daylight left in TX so this is one of the last visible satellite pics you'll see of Harvey at its peak before landfall. There was a ton of strengthening in the just the last few hours and can now see a well defined massive eye wall. Just a monster of a storm.

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2017-08-25 at 5.25.59 PM.png

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Can it get a category 5 awarded posthumously(from satellite + obs analysis), or do you need live observations by a station or a plane?

Need the recon verification I think.

 

This is incredible, though. Harvey is shaking seismometers now.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/58E32EA1-6907-40D3-889D-EE926C407C8E_zpsy4amrooy.png

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The evening here has has 2 cell phones busy as fuel suppliers have been contacting Randy.  There will be plenty of fuel for northern area cities and for the crews to get to south Texas to assist in cleanup and rescue.  Despite flooding in Hurricane Ike, crews boated in, so the massive flooding made force this need again.  Hard to say when the storm will allow them to get in safely. 

 

Ft. Worth is often the first in, but logistically t his one is further south, so hard to say.  The team here is well experienced and prepared.

Hard to say how long they'll be there.  Ike was about 10 days, 2 staggered teams. Katrina was more like a month of rotating teams initially.

 

Is that seismograph for real ??  lol

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Cell tower down in Rockport. The place is likely flat. The whole area even northward past Victoria and west is a low lying flat plain.

Much is ranch's inland but now where for people to go unless you evacuate 100+ miles away.

Harvey just keeps cranking away.

 

We get bands of clouds here, light rain. But if you clap your hands outside, it will rain.

Incredible air outside.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Gators being flushed out looking for higher ground

Randy heads into this this week. Better take his pistol

 

http://www.wnd.com/2017/08/country-rock-star-charlie-daniels-beware-of-tipping-point/

IMG_2686.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We're just getting light outer bands of the storm now. The bulk remains almost in place, just grinding out the water.

They believe the remains will be up in the DFW area by mid week.

It so odd to see a hurricane/ TS just sit there.

 

Houston is a mess again. Much like Ike, it's flooding damage as much as anything.

Rockport, Port LaVaca, Victoria, are disasters.

I don't know where they'll send Randy's city recovery crews but I think we'll find out Mon. or Tues.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I saw this this morning a was gob smacked. Absolutely stunning image and sums up the insanity that is Harvey.

 

Noticed this morning there is a sizable storm in the Atlantic headed toward the US, Irma. Met said it might enter the Guld, but models were too far out to be confident of anything. Still it looks like it could develop into a big storm.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I heard this morning this next one stands a good chance to remain an Atlantic event.

 

The Gulf would greatly appreciate that.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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moral objectivity aside about death and destruction, I would like to be under a hurricane watch at least once before I move back to Seattle

I want to be under a hurricane warning. It's been awhile.

 

We've had plenty of tropical storm warnings but I can't remember the last hurricane warning. I forget if Isabel was a hurricane warning or tropical storm warning.

 

Sandy was extratropical, so we were under a high wind warning for 80mph gusts. Irene was a tropical storm warning for gusts over 60mph. Isabel was a different beast with that raging southeasterly wind overnight, but we were probably still just under a tropical storm warning. Still, that roar was deep and constant.

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I just want to hear that it won't move into the Gulf. Too soon to know, but it would be good news for us.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Up to 185 mph now. 

Looks to hit Antigua, Barbuda, and the Virgin Island tonight.

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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It's something else. Gusts are up to 225 mph

 

It's registering on the seismographs on the island of Guadeloupe.

 

IMG_2701.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Oh please, not the Gulf.

I did run across this old track from 2004's Hurricane Frances. Irma could take a similar run this year and bring the Atlantic area heavy rains.

 

IMG_2702.PNG

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Barbuda station hitting 155mph now. Yikes.

 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=9761115

 

I wonder if there's much standing there this morning.

Anguilla took a direct hit along with St. Martin. BVI looks to be next.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-united-states-hurricane-warning-puerto-rico-leeward-islands-0

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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On the Caribbean island of St Barthelemy (St Barts) no data has been received from the station since 9am UTC, the French Observatory of Tornadoes and Violent Storms reported.

 

It appears the weather station has been destroyed.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-irma-st-barts-island-weath-station-destroy-caribbean-gulf-mexico-tropical-storm-category-5-a7931881.html

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Irma hitting St. John as I type this. 

 

BVI is within the eye now with St. Thomas being next.

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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From the Weather Channel:

 

Irma moved directly over the island of Barbuda between 1:00 and 2:00 AM AST, bringing sustained winds of 118 mph before the anemometer broke. Pressure dropped to at least 921 mb before the barometer on the automated station also broke.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Puerto Rico radar provides a nice view.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-1-24

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False color sat image as Irma hits Barbuda.

 

irma-viirs-sep6.jpg

 

No one has been heard from there for 6 hours.

 

https://twitter.com/spekkers/status/905485178881146880

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The last 3-5mins of this recording on Saint Barts is insane.

 

Gets taken out by wind eventually, but this camera deserves a medal for surviving as long as it did.

 

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

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I'm surprised any buildings can remain after that.

 

The fact that the atmosphere can create these things is just amazing.

 

Hope the loss of life isn't high, but it does make you concerned, especially when all contact I see lost.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Both coasts of southern FL have been told to evacuate soon.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/07/us/hurricane-irma-florida-latest/index.html

 

Nice read by Cliff Mass on Irma

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Into the central Keys now.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_4.png

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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  • 2 weeks later...

I feel bad for the Caribbean. Another major hurricane about to hit the Leeward Islands.

 

Looks like Guadeloupe will take a direct hit today. 

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_watl_2.png

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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My God, parts of the Caribbean will be in the Stone Age.
They'll have to evacuate people. There's nothing going to be left to support a population.
Some islands are scraped clean of vegetation, only rubble left.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I think Maria will be upgraded to a Category 5 on the 8pm advisory.

 

Well this morning she is. 160 mph winds and barreling toward the Virgin Island and PR.

 

Sounds like Dominica is about as devastated as Barbuda was.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/19/americas/hurricane-maria-caribbean-islands/index.html

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Puerto Rico is bankrupt and will have no power for a lengthy time. They will have to bring in outside crews.

If it hits on the strongest side of the storm, PR could look like the Virgin Islands or Baruda. They've been telling people to evacuate and supplies are rationed.

 

“If you are in a flood zone or in a wood house, your life is in danger,” Governor Ricardo Rossello said during a press conference Monday in San Juan. “There has never been an event like this in our history in the last 100 years. Our call is for all citizens to move to a safe place.”

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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