Atlantic Hurricanes

[Clinton]

0z Euro painting an ugly picture for Florida.  As it has Ian stalling over Florida due to strong blocking and bring rains to many members in the eastern part of the country.  GFS has a panhandle landfall but still lots of rain.

[Niko]

Ian means business. I would not be surprise to see this become a full blown CAT5.

[SnarkyGoblin]

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro painting an ugly picture for Florida.  As it has Ian stalling over Florida due to strong blocking and bring rains to many members in the eastern part of the country.  GFS has a panhandle landfall but still lots of rain.

Thx for posting.  Was wondering if anyone was doing any analysis of this event.

[Clinton]

18z GFS starting to look more like the Euro with the slow crawl up the Florida gulf coast.  @Tomwas the first to point out the blocking that could slow Ian down, good catch on that.

5pm update still has a large cone

18z models

[Tom]

@Clinton, its wild to see this beast sit and spin just offshore of FL as a CAT 3 or 4....can you imagine the surge and flooding that would take place?  I've been watching all the models and the ones that haven't wavered were the ICON (believe it or not) UKIE and the NAM once it got into range.  The GFS has shifted west over the past 2 days but I suspect it will correct East today.

Last night's 0z Euro/EPS is starting to slow down this storm and showing signs of stalling out just offshore Wed-Fri period...

[mlgamer]

12z 3k NAM shows IAN at 888 millibars at 48hrs. That may be too low, but still...wow!

[Clinton]

12z GFS and NAM look really bad for Tampa Bay. 

 

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

12z 3k NAM shows IAN at 888 millibars at 48hrs. That may be too low, but still...wow!

Also quite a bit W of current "mean track". I agree with Niko, these due S to N storms are the ones that typically go big. Verbatim it would be even lower than the famed Keys hurricane of 1935: Lowest pressure: 892 mbar (hPa‎); 26.34

Sadly, I no longer have family in the cone since my Mother, aunt, and uncle passed many years ago (RIP). They were in Venice and dodged a major bullet when Charlie took that last-minute right jog into Punta Gorda back in '04.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS and NAM look really bad for Tampa Bay. 

 

I think Tampa/St. Pete is really over-due tbh

[mlgamer]

39 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Also quite a bit W of current "mean track".

Yeah, I noticed that too but was in a hurry and got a bit lazy on posting that. Likely an outlier with the farther west track and very low pressure, but still thought that was impressive...and we're talking hurricanes here so you never know!

[Clinton]

5pm update from the NHC.

[Clinton]

Ian already looks beasty.  Currently a cat 2 with 100mph max winds.  Pressure is 972mb.

[Clinton]

18z Euro with a big hit to the Tampa Bay area.  The 18z ICON tracks Ian slowly across Florida and into the Atlantic where it strengthens and makes a second US landfall near Myrtle Beach, the 18z Euro may be trending in that direction as well.

18z ICON

18z Euro

 

[Grizzcoat]

Ian is going S and E of previous forecasts as the trough appears stronger and picking up IAN quicker. Likely hit near Venice Beach. Will (should spare) Tampa of storm surge but latest guidance has Tampa proper getting 20-30" of rain. Don't know how that ( or if ) it will pan out - but Port Charlotte / Punta Gorda looks like some serious storm surge.

[Clinton]

NHC 5am update adjusted the cone SE.  Ian expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. 

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro with a big hit to the Tampa Bay area.  The 18z ICON tracks Ian slowly across Florida and into the Atlantic where it strengthens and makes a second US landfall near Myrtle Beach, the 18z Euro may be trending in that direction as well.

18z ICON

18z Euro

 

Gotta hand it to the ICON, It really hasn't budged at all since it got into the medium range.  I'm actually pretty shocked how good it handled this systems track and strength.  It also was the first model to sniff out the potential SLOW crawl.

[westMJim]

28 minutes ago, Tom said:

18z Euro with a big hit to the Tampa Bay area. 

You know that if that happens it would be a major blow to a area has has not seen a direct hit in a long time. Stay tuned  

[Andie]

Heard a report this morning that they’re worried about the storm surge flooding and storm could hit Cat 4.  Tampa is in the crosshairs and 300,000 are evacuating.  People riding this out may not make it.This is one big blow!

[tStacsh]

This sucker is strengthening rapidly.   Goodbye a lot of vacation spots south of Tampa.  This will take years for the area to recover if it scoots up the coast slowly as a cat 3/4.

[Clinton]

Latest update from the NHC has Ian another tic southeast.

[Doinko]

 

[Clinton]

0z spaghetti models the track looks set.  Category 4 landfall just north of Fort Meyers. 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

This sucker is strengthening rapidly.   Goodbye a lot of vacation spots south of Tampa.  This will take years for the area to recover if it scoots up the coast slowly as a cat 3/4.

And that's my fave region of Florida too. Venice, Sarasota, and Anna Maria Island. You will be missed greatly!

[NWbyNW]

Hurricane Ian looks scary here.  Also the surf surge on Florida's Eastern Coast probably isn't something you want to mess with right now.

Still Category 3 currently, but the damaging thing is going to be rain, tidal surge, and flooding.  All which don't go great with the largest man-made canal system's in the world and building cities on top of swamps. 

Prayers to them all.  Will continue to monitor. 

 

Since you are here, here is some satellite imagery from about fifteen minutes ago.  Heavy and moderate rains are now hitting Cape Coral.  

[Clinton]

5am advisory Ian is now a category 4 with 140mph winds.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

5am advisory Ian is now a category 4 with 140mph winds.

God Speed to all of those in FL...I'm going to be sad to see some of the nations best beaches washed away from this Beast.  I think it'll be at least a couple years till this region will come back to normal.  

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

God Speed to all of those in FL...I'm going to be sad to see some of the nations best beaches washed away from this Beast.  I think it'll be at least a couple years till this region will come back to normal.  

Yes and hurricane force winds make it all the way into Orlando.  This will be a bad setback for this region.

[Tom]

Just upgraded to 155MPH Winds!!!  Holy freak!

[Madtown]

Cousin lives in Rotonda...not looking good there

[Niko]

S MI might get a visit from Ian on Sunday. Some passing high clouds might block the sunshine from time to time.

 

Good luck to all those down in SW FL.

[Andie]

Storm surge on this baby should be eye popping!  
Another worry is the cost in wildlife and habitat.  

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Just upgraded to 155MPH Winds!!!  Holy freak!

Yep, worst nightmare for those in the path. Strengthening CAT-5 monster!

The owner's of my family's former residences on "the island" in Venice look to be brutalized by winds combined with 3+ feet of water. That was just one of many many housing complexes of pre-fab housing, not stick built homes. Would imagine they will be a total loss and folks will find themselves homeless. These are 55+ communities so even harder on the elderly citizenship than on young peeps in their prime. Heartfelt prayers for these folks. They rode out 100 mph "gusts" during Charlie's close call but this looks potentially much worse as Charlie's strong wind core was quite small and veered to their south. I was through Punta Gorda the following May of '05 for my mom's funeral and the place still looked decimated then. 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Unbelievable

 

[Clinton]

Reed Timmer video from Palm Island. 

 

[jaster220]

..as I was saying - size DOES matter

 

[hawkstwelve]

Good Youtube channel to follow that is tracking the hurricane and a few different storm chasers.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Storm surge in Ft Myers 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Listen to that haunting sound!!

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Balls of steel

Last 10 seconds has a sudden bump…

 

[NWbyNW]

Category 4, Ian are over land. 

Satellite imagery from about five minutes ago.  This hurricane is pretty scary looking at it.  I can't imagine what it is like for the people in Florida.  The eye is just north of Cape Coral. 

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

 

[Andie]

Can you imagine southern Florida with no a/c?!

I experienced it as a kid but ehh!  I was a kid!  Talk about miserable.  

[NWbyNW]

We are finally seeing this bad thing break down.  The eye is starting to struggle, but winds are still in rotation.  Overland is should break down more as time goes by.  But there is still super strong gusts and winds with very heavy rain.  Coastal locations will see sporadic surges of water. 

What makes this worse is it can be storming outside, pouring down rain, but you can go outside and still sweat because of the humidity and how it's still well over 70F.  Horrible! 

What stinks is how slow the hurricane is moving, just making things worse for everyone.  I am confident in the State Emergency Services/Government and people coming together to pull through, but this is going to be a really messy one unfortunately.  

 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

We are finally seeing this bad thing break down.  The eye is no longer, but winds are still in rotation.  Overland is should break down more as time goes by.  But there is still super strong gusts and winds with very heavy rain.  Coastal locations will see sporadic surges of water. 

What makes this worse is it can be storming outside, pouring down rain, but you can go outside and still sweat because of the humidity and how it's still well over 70F.  Horrible! 

What stinks is how slow the hurricane is moving, just making things worse for everyone.  I am confident in the State Emergency Services/Government and people coming together to pull through, but this is going to be a really messy one unfortunately.  

 

Was it's max speed confirmed to be a Cat 4 or 5? Last I saw was 155mph which is almost a CAT 5 so at some point it probably reached the 157 criteria but I'm not sure. Either way I hope Florida can recover quickly from this.

[Andie]

This thing is slowing down.  
What a super-soaker!

Recovery will be so hard on everyone. Great or small. It’ll be heavy lift.  
It’s not their first rodeo. They’ve got this.  

[snowstorm83]

The Punta Gorda airport reported a observation with sustained winds at 86 mph gusting to 123 mph. That was the last observation at 4 pm before it finally gave out I guess. 

[Tom]

 

6 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

The Punta Gorda airport reported a observation with sustained winds at 86 mph gusting to 123 mph. That was the last observation at 4 pm before it finally gave out I guess. 

Near the eye wall right by Punta Gorda...

 

[Clinton]

The Euro out performed the GFS on Ian.

European Models Provide Far Better Forecasts than U.S. Models for Hurricane Ian

 

European weather prediction models provided to be substantially superior to U.S weather prediction systems predicting the track of Hurricane Ian.