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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro painting an ugly picture for Florida.  As it has Ian stalling over Florida due to strong blocking and bring rains to many members in the eastern part of the country.  GFS has a panhandle landfall but still lots of rain.

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Thx for posting.  Was wondering if anyone was doing any analysis of this event.

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@Clinton, its wild to see this beast sit and spin just offshore of FL as a CAT 3 or 4....can you imagine the surge and flooding that would take place?  I've been watching all the models and the ones that haven't wavered were the ICON (believe it or not) UKIE and the NAM once it got into range.  The GFS has shifted west over the past 2 days but I suspect it will correct East today.

Last night's 0z Euro/EPS is starting to slow down this storm and showing signs of stalling out just offshore Wed-Fri period...

image.gif

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29 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

12z 3k NAM shows IAN at 888 millibars at 48hrs. That may be too low, but still...wow!

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_48.thumb.png.38b613bca320f598fc4558a84cddd3c2.png

Also quite a bit W of current "mean track". I agree with Niko, these due S to N storms are the ones that typically go big. Verbatim it would be even lower than the famed Keys hurricane of 1935: Lowest pressure: 892 mbar (hPa‎); 26.34

Sadly, I no longer have family in the cone since my Mother, aunt, and uncle passed many years ago (RIP). They were in Venice and dodged a major bullet when Charlie took that last-minute right jog into Punta Gorda back in '04.

image.thumb.png.3bba685ee04d26f70c1e02e27d3050e3.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS and NAM look really bad for Tampa Bay

 

I think Tampa/St. Pete is really over-due tbh

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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39 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Also quite a bit W of current "mean track".

Yeah, I noticed that too but was in a hurry and got a bit lazy on posting that. Likely an outlier with the farther west track and very low pressure, but still thought that was impressive...and we're talking hurricanes here so you never know!

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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18z Euro with a big hit to the Tampa Bay area.  The 18z ICON tracks Ian slowly across Florida and into the Atlantic where it strengthens and makes a second US landfall near Myrtle Beach, the 18z Euro may be trending in that direction as well.

18z ICON

image.thumb.gif.95a2ffd93971dc468079e9191b847b30.gif

18z Euro

image.thumb.gif.2cc087d007c0263e806890261ced8592.gif

 

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Ian is going S and E of previous forecasts as the trough appears stronger and picking up IAN quicker. Likely hit near Venice Beach. Will (should spare) Tampa of storm surge but latest guidance has Tampa proper getting 20-30" of rain. Don't know how that ( or if ) it will pan out - but Port Charlotte / Punta Gorda looks like some serious storm surge.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro with a big hit to the Tampa Bay area.  The 18z ICON tracks Ian slowly across Florida and into the Atlantic where it strengthens and makes a second US landfall near Myrtle Beach, the 18z Euro may be trending in that direction as well.

18z ICON

image.thumb.gif.95a2ffd93971dc468079e9191b847b30.gif

18z Euro

image.thumb.gif.2cc087d007c0263e806890261ced8592.gif

 

Gotta hand it to the ICON, It really hasn't budged at all since it got into the medium range.  I'm actually pretty shocked how good it handled this systems track and strength.  It also was the first model to sniff out the potential SLOW crawl.

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Heard a report this morning that they’re worried about the storm surge flooding and storm could hit Cat 4.  Tampa is in the crosshairs and 300,000 are evacuating.  People riding this out may not make it.This is one big blow!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

This sucker is strengthening rapidly.   Goodbye a lot of vacation spots south of Tampa.  This will take years for the area to recover if it scoots up the coast slowly as a cat 3/4.

And that's my fave region of Florida too. Venice, Sarasota, and Anna Maria Island. You will be missed greatly!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hurricane Ian looks scary here.  Also the surf surge on Florida's Eastern Coast probably isn't something you want to mess with right now.

Still Category 3 currently, but the damaging thing is going to be rain, tidal surge, and flooding.  All which don't go great with the largest man-made canal system's in the world and building cities on top of swamps. 

Prayers to them all.  Will continue to monitor. 

Screen Shot 2022-09-28 at 12.57.07 AM.png

 

Since you are here, here is some satellite imagery from about fifteen minutes ago.  Heavy and moderate rains are now hitting Cape Coral.  

1044364415_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_04_19AM.thumb.png.f6cabd5f3e283238d908e08254624544.png1485234919_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_03_43AM.thumb.png.db6090546edbe00f4ccc908aea4c8620.png

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

5am advisory Ian is now a category 4 with 140mph winds.

image.png.7ba7470dfac822938591029b85e3d196.png

God Speed to all of those in FL...I'm going to be sad to see some of the nations best beaches washed away from this Beast.  I think it'll be at least a couple years till this region will come back to normal.  

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

God Speed to all of those in FL...I'm going to be sad to see some of the nations best beaches washed away from this Beast.  I think it'll be at least a couple years till this region will come back to normal.  

Yes and hurricane force winds make it all the way into Orlando.  This will be a bad setback for this region.

image.png.f950a28c0cebc96a3f1da90ae8ce906c.png

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S MI might get a visit from Ian on Sunday. Some passing high clouds might block the sunshine from time to time. 😬

 

Good luck to all those down in SW FL.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022-23

Oct '22: A trace

Nov'22: 0.5"

Dec'22:

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Storm surge on this baby should be eye popping!  
Another worry is the cost in wildlife and habitat.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Just upgraded to 155MPH Winds!!!  Holy freak!

Yep, worst nightmare for those in the path. Strengthening CAT-5 monster!

The owner's of my family's former residences on "the island" in Venice look to be brutalized by winds combined with 3+ feet of water. That was just one of many many housing complexes of pre-fab housing, not stick built homes. Would imagine they will be a total loss and folks will find themselves homeless. These are 55+ communities so even harder on the elderly citizenship than on young peeps in their prime. Heartfelt prayers for these folks. They rode out 100 mph "gusts" during Charlie's close call but this looks potentially much worse as Charlie's strong wind core was quite small and veered to their south. I was through Punta Gorda the following May of '05 for my mom's funeral and the place still looked decimated then. 

 

22-09-28 Venice Hurricane Warning-7 am.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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..as I was saying - size DOES matter

 

22-09-28 Charlie vs Ian.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Category 4, Ian are over land. 

Satellite imagery from about five minutes ago.  This hurricane is pretty scary looking at it.  I can't imagine what it is like for the people in Florida.  The eye is just north of Cape Coral. 

 

1764856326_ScreenShot2022-09-28at2_03_14PM.thumb.png.dd133334942b5ceaf4f3a632f1c7cef2.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-28 at 2.03.27 PM.png

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Can you imagine southern Florida with no a/c?!

I experienced it as a kid but ehh!  I was a kid!  Talk about miserable.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We are finally seeing this bad thing break down.  The eye is starting to struggle, but winds are still in rotation.  Overland is should break down more as time goes by.  But there is still super strong gusts and winds with very heavy rain.  Coastal locations will see sporadic surges of water. 

What makes this worse is it can be storming outside, pouring down rain, but you can go outside and still sweat because of the humidity and how it's still well over 70F.  Horrible! 

What stinks is how slow the hurricane is moving, just making things worse for everyone.  I am confident in the State Emergency Services/Government and people coming together to pull through, but this is going to be a really messy one unfortunately.  

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-28 at 6.47.00 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

We are finally seeing this bad thing break down.  The eye is no longer, but winds are still in rotation.  Overland is should break down more as time goes by.  But there is still super strong gusts and winds with very heavy rain.  Coastal locations will see sporadic surges of water. 

What makes this worse is it can be storming outside, pouring down rain, but you can go outside and still sweat because of the humidity and how it's still well over 70F.  Horrible! 

What stinks is how slow the hurricane is moving, just making things worse for everyone.  I am confident in the State Emergency Services/Government and people coming together to pull through, but this is going to be a really messy one unfortunately.  

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-28 at 6.47.00 PM.png

Was it's max speed confirmed to be a Cat 4 or 5? Last I saw was 155mph which is almost a CAT 5 so at some point it probably reached the 157 criteria but I'm not sure. Either way I hope Florida can recover quickly from this.

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This thing is slowing down.  
What a super-soaker!

Recovery will be so hard on everyone. Great or small. It’ll be heavy lift.  
It’s not their first rodeo. They’ve got this.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The Punta Gorda airport reported a observation with sustained winds at 86 mph gusting to 123 mph. That was the last observation at 4 pm before it finally gave out I guess. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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6 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

The Punta Gorda airport reported a observation with sustained winds at 86 mph gusting to 123 mph. That was the last observation at 4 pm before it finally gave out I guess. 

Near the eye wall right by Punta Gorda...

 

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The Euro out performed the GFS on Ian.

European Models Provide Far Better Forecasts than U.S. Models for Hurricane Ian

 

European weather prediction models provided to be substantially superior to U.S weather prediction systems predicting the track of Hurricane Ian.

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