Jump to content

PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think despite the odds of a full on arctic solution that always just looked wrong IMO have decreased…our odds at a decent event in western WA have increased. Would be nice to finally score a really significant arctic event…but we don’t necessarily need it for some fun things to happen as we’ve seen the last 7 years. 

This is a solid take. GFS solutions are and will be ridiculous, but there will likely be a solid event north of Olympia.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, T-Town said:

I’m good with a little freezing rain to wrap things up, just don’t want a full on ice storm. Not sure where I would draw the line between the two but expect i will know it when I see it. 

The January 2012 ice storm was devastating here. I’ve seen a couple freezing rain events here with just 1/4” of ice and those really aren’t a big deal. That one in 2012 was on another level and hopefully we can avoid that next week. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The January 2012 ice storm was devastating here. I’ve seen a couple freezing rain events here with just 1/4” of ice and those really aren’t a big deal. That one in 2012 was on another level and hopefully we can avoid that next week. 

I was in Maple Valley then. I recall some freezing rain but no real impacts. Don’t think we even lost power. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I was in Maple Valley then. I recall some freezing rain but no real impacts. Don’t think we even lost power. 

Yeah... that area was warm nosed.    While areas around Tacoma and from I-90 northward kept the low level cold longer.   It was a mess out here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used to think the January 2004 ice storm was massive, or the December 2007 one we had in Oklahoma.  But I hope none of y’all see anything like February 2021. Ironically the places actually most likely to see a damaging storm like that are probably the Portland and south metro areas. Dang gorge. 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What day was the zr up there in 2012? We went right from snow to rain here, 21” of snow fell on the 17th, 5.36” of rain on the 18th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What day was the zr up there in 2012? We went right from snow to rain here, 21” of snow fell on the 17th, 5.36” of rain on the 18th. 

IIRC it was the 17th-18th. Did freezing rain for like 12+ hours I think. My memory of that isn’t super sharp since I was 12 at the time. But I remember the constant on and off power outages and tree limbs breaking. We had 1” of ice accumulation. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Timmy said:

@Perturbed Member yeah I used to be on skyline blvd at about 1500’ great for snow and the gorge basically was pointed directly at me so we did really well in outflow situations as well. The problem is most of it is multnomah county and taxes are insane.  And with the increase in the market most stuff is probably pushing 750k - 1 mil Minimum, if you can find something for sale. There isn’t a ton of real estate but there are some good spots in the scappoose-st Helen’s area with elevation. 

Highest point in Portland on Skyline just briefly touches 1200'.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 at SLE 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ICON was improved... and the 06Z EPS control run was also improved.   

I am not sure we can stick a fork in this yet.   The problem with the recent models runs is that the cold air does not spill out over the ocean as much.    This is a short term improvement as more cold air stays in southern BC and sinks south but also leads to a much faster warm up later next week.

This is still evolving and to see a couple models reverse this trend means its still a complicated situation and there could be additional swings.

undeniable bait and switch from the models lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

undeniable bait and switch from the models lol

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

  • Like 6

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

If this were a tradeable market this last move by the models would be the shakeout move in Wyckoff. Markup next?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

Agreed. I understand some disappointment at this point but it’s way too early to give up on this thing. The upside is still there for something special. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

The day 5 pullback.  I would expect the gfs will trend at least a little cooler in the next day or 2

  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmmm icon looks

good early. Let’s see where it goes.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s also worth noting most of the shrieking screams about a pull back are coming from Oregon members and rightly so. But if you live north of Olympia it’s ok to ignore us.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, thickhog said:

You have to be up on the Chehalem Mountains near Bald Peak park to get > 1500’ in the WV. 

Yep, 1629'.  Even with it's elevation it doesn't snow there a whole lot more than lower elevations in PDX.  It has some locational problems going on.  Does pretty good in cold air damming scenarios though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

Absolutely…late November into early December was going horribly then it turned around. Not quite as good as it was modeled beforehand but it ended up pretty good for a lot of people still. I’m feeling optimistic about next week more and more but we will see where we’re at in a couple days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Icon still isn’t great down here, but it’s a huge improvement. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

If I don't wake up with at least a few roasts I will be pretty disappointed 😂 (I can take jokes!!)

Seriously, this is the guy moderating this place??! 🤦‍♂️😂

Lol, looks like you’re a silly fun guy so you’re good in my book !  Great pics and I’m glad you’re moderating this place.  You do look like one of my friends from the 70s 😱.  He’s in radio as you can tell 

C9AC519C-4C2F-4E7F-A984-C33C17E7BB32.jpeg

AC4FA0C4-73CE-435F-900E-8C787E17A1DD.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...