PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you think the ICON does steroids? 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon to the rescue!

Hello!

 

[thickhog]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Who’s freaking out or saying anything irrational about long term climate implications. The fact that you feel the need to frame things this way is a big reason why we have never quite gotten along. It’s been three decades and counting. It’s a real thing and I find it interesting, if not cathartic, to discuss it. 

No need to justify it or defend yourself. Some people get uncomfortable when the discussion pivots to human-caused warming. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do you think the ICON does steroids? 

Everybody was dogging my love for the ICON yesterday. Today, it's their saving grace. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do you think the ICON does steroids? 

The only reason to that is a little interesting is that is the most recent model to go out that far.

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh fuckking save it man. Stop making everything so personal. Try to be a little nicer? Your victim complex here rings duller and duller when you are so needlessly defensive and antagonistic all the time.

Holy smokes the private messages Cascade sent me last week makes so much more sense now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hello!

 

Might be on to something.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hello!

 

I trust German tech. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction between the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the east it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the west of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction been the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the west it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the east of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.

The good EPS members look like ICON?

[Dave]

For a fuckking weather forum, you need surprisingly thick skin around here. I learned that fairly early in my shittposting career. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction been the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the west it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the east of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.

D**n nice work.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Might be on to something.

It actually shifted south and colder from its 12Z run.   Crazy.

[Slushy Inch]

Here comes 18GFS to smother our last bits of hope

[Timmy]

41 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah Multnomah county has horrific property taxes. I won't even bother looking at anything in that county. Pretty much considering Washington County or Clark County at this point. 

1k+ feet in east coast range or Clark county should be a massive upgrade and should be able to produce some snow with otherwise marginal/unremarkable conditions I think. 

Yeah, it certainly makes a world of difference. I was there for 5 winters I think, the first was Feb 2013 when I was painting and put the flooring in, it was 15 degrees or colder for 3 straight days.  I didn’t keep records but I dont think I had a winter with less that 25” of snow, sometimes we would have snow on the ground for several weeks.  There was a surprising amount of freezing rain too from the gorge influence, just in the 1200’+ range.  It was interesting being up that high since there aren’t a lot of houses at that elevation. The forecasters even at the nws didn’t really give us the time of day(I don’t blame them) in their forecasts, lots of surprise events. Then again people up there are prepared to deal with it.  We were the last to get our power back on always.  Quite the different world! I’ll try to get up there again when I don’t have little kids.

[BLI snowman]

February can't come soon enough.

[Phishy Wx]

would you guys like me to send snow on palm trees pics in SC next week on xmas?  or would you prefer snow pics from Rockefeller Center in NYC on NYE?

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction been the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the west it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the east of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.

Great analysis. Thanks for this

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Holy smokes the private messages Cascade sent me last week makes so much more sense now.

I’ve never gotten one of his infamous PM s. I feel pretty left out. 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

For a fuckking weather forum, you need surprisingly thick skin around here. I learned that fairly early in my shittposting career. 

Ironically the one you need the thick skin for most has thin skin himself

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

For a fuckking weather forum, you need surprisingly thick skin around here. I learned that fairly early in my shittposting career. 

I’m definitely no angel. Jess and I have been trading barbs for years but I love the guy. Us CC folks have to stick together but I don’t think the feeling is mutual.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction been the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the west it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the east of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.

Great analysis!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

would you guys like me to send snow on palm trees pics in SC next week on xmas?  or would you prefer snow pics from Rockefeller Center in NYC on NYE?

Always respect for Rockefeller. Take it there.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

February can't come soon enough.

I’m looking at the sun angle right now and it doesn’t look promising.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Always respect for Rockefeller. Take it there.

Don Joseph Rockefeller? Speaking of s posting weirdos. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Did a deep dive on individual EPS members. Basically there is a small camp (10-20%) that are good members for cold and/or snow. The key to all of these is the interaction been the PV that forms in the central pacific. Any time it crosses the black line to the west it pushes the weak ridge over or near us which shoves the arctic trough east. The handful of members that had the PV to the east of the black line (often much weaker as well) the ridge was able to retro back towards the big Arctic ridge that wanders off. Today's 12z UKMET shows this (2nd pic) as well as EPS member 33 (3rd pic). The ones that shove the ridge over us and torch us, like EPS member 49, have a strong/big PV closer to 155W.




 

Nice analysis. I notice even with the coldest members/solutions the ridge is so dang skinny with unfavorable tilt, but enough to dig the arctic trough somewhat. Why couldn't we get a negative tilt ridge at ~140W with the base of the block around ~145 W. Even ~140/135 W could have worked with sharp northeasterly flow.

[Gradient Keeper]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I never thought I'd praise him more than I already have. No, not Jesus this time. True Baywatch was the golden era of television, but could David Hasselhoff actually save Winter AND a White Christmas? Wouldn't that be something. King ICON!

 

 

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m definitely no angel. Jess and I have been trading barbs for years but I love the guy. Us CC folks have to stick together but I don’t think the feeling is mutual.

I lived in the Salmon Creek area for over a year. It didn't snow even once. What a shitt asss county.

[RentonHill]

45 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

WTF am I subscribing to wxbell when it can't even produce weeklies on time. 

for some reason wxmodels is faster on the EPS runs. Everything else its the same speed. 

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Also on the canine front, Deweydog would have been 19 years old today!

Who would ever downvote a picture of an adooorable puppy?!? Oh right...Jesse.

[Hawksfan2008]

Getting into Meso range. RGEM is nice. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

for some reason wxmodels is faster on the EPS runs. Everything else its the same speed. 

Jokes on them. I just cancelled my membership moving my talents to south beach. I mean to weathermodels.com so I can see those sweet individual ensemble members.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We just need that low that develops to the south to track east and not shoot straight towards the north pole.

[Timmy]

I’m sure I’m just grasping at straws but the gfs is tending south with arctic air at hour 54

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Getting into Meso range. RGEM is nice. 

pretty good PSCZ too

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I never thought I'd praise him more than I already have. No, not Jesus this time. True Baywatch was the golden era of television, but could David Hasselhoff actually save Winter AND a White Christmas? Wouldn't that be something. King ICON!

imagine model whiplash and we actually do end up with a week of arctic cold after all. that would really be the last straw for putting any trust in the models

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I’m sure I’m just grasping at straws but the gfs is tending south with arctic air at hour 54

It definitely is, but its like 10-15 miles with each run, we might just run out of time. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

imagine model whiplash and we actually do end up with a week of arctic cold after all. that would really be the last straw for putting any trust in the models

Why any trust? It was a possible outcome.

[Phishy Wx]

still some surprises on the table

[SouthHillFrosty]

@Meatyorologist why did y’all take away the Gifs?