PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Poulsbo Snowman]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS Day 5 (4-run trend) hmmm....

That Hudson ridge is growing some legs.  Might be helping to push the energy west.

[WeatherGeek2022]

7 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

ICON finished. 

oof that thing really gets thrown east.

[selkirks]

17 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here comes that crazy jet! Root for Jet Suppression for COLD rains and unfathomable amounts of Mountain SNOW!

250% mountain snowpack when????????

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Bismarck looks like fun tonight

https://v.angelcam.com/iframe?v=v8rpjkv5r6&autoplay=1&mute=1

My buddy is stuck somewhere along 94 as it’s closed down.  He did send me these pics. Blizzardy 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Xmas lights!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

They've been crazy busy this week and fully open.  I can attest to it because the traffic is a joke anywhere on that side of Bend, and I had to sit in it to get to a house this morning.  

Will this upcoming warm stretch close everything back down?

[bishbish777]

Any minute now we're gonna hear about UKMET verification scores being off the charts...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

A system looks to be approaching from the SW at the end of the run. Would be a nice snow maker if it takes the right track.

[Blizzard777]

41 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I don't think the GFS should be used beyond around 160 hours, so I'll stop posting here unless something interesting pops up.

Excellent idea! Baby steps 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Do you believe in Christmas miracles? 

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

My buddy is stuck somewhere along 94 as it’s closed down.  He did send me these pics. Blizzardy 

wonder what living through a scenario like that would be like in the PNW! guess we'll never know in this lifetime.

 

pardon the weenieism

[Meatyorologist]

It does look like the GFS operational was an outlier.

[Cloud]

This was posted previously and just wanted to bring it back up. Judah posted this 4 days ago and it was issued on Dec 6. We saw what the models showed today. His “machinelearning” is ahead of the pack! 

All Hail The Machine Learning!

#cherrypick

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

Well we can hope for the long range torching to fall apart in the same way that this cold and snow event fell apart.

Haha just kidding, we all know torchy patterns shown at this range magically verify 100% of the time.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Well we can hope for the long range torching to fall apart in the same way that this cold and snow event fell apart.

Haha just kidding, we all know torchy patterns shown at this range magically verify 100% of the time.

still can't believe they even showed the perfect snowstorm like 5 days ago now

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, WeatherGeek2022 said:

still can't believe they even showed the perfect snowstorm like 5 days ago now

Generally a good rule to go by - when it comes to cold and snow, anything more than 3 days out is clown range.

[TacomaWx]

I remember saying a few days ago we would know by tonight. It appears that was a lie and we still don’t know. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Well we can hope for the long range torching to fall apart in the same way that this cold and snow event fell apart.

Haha just kidding, we all know torchy patterns shown at this range magically verify 100% of the time.

Jet extensions are pretty easy for the models to resolve, plus we don’t dissect their every wobble and shift in six hour increments. They live a charmed life.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It does look like the GFS operational was an outlier.

The same progression happens though.    I think Tuesday is the day to watch for some snowy fun.

 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The same progression happens though.    I think Tuesday is the day to watch for some snowy fun.

 

Man this pattern just looks so fluky from a 500mb perspective. No wonder we still don’t have consensus on this. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I remember saying a few days ago we would know by tonight. It appears that was a lie and we still don’t know. 

I said the same thing… give it 24-48 hours. We have a better idea, but nowhere near being resolved. 

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I remember saying a few days ago we would know by tonight. It appears that was a lie and we still don’t know. 

We'll know when it's over

[MikeInEverett]

Starting to get a little excited about the prospects here on Sunday night. Something January 2020 esque would make this worthwhile

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

still can't believe they even showed the perfect snowstorm like 5 days ago now

It wasn't 5 days ago.   It was Tuesday when the ECMWF showed ridiculous snow.

[TacomaWx]

I’m just glad I already had some snow and cold this winter so I’m not as worried about missing out on future events. More is always good though! Still a fairly decent chance that next week works out here…but I do agree with many others about us possibly having more opportunities in January and February. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold pool is looking quite healthy now.

[TT-SEA]

WRF snow through Sunday at 4 p.m.

Waiting for Sunday night to update.  Precip amounts seem pretty light overall.    Usually it shows crazy amounts in c-zones but think initially the moisture lacking over the weekend.

[Blizzard777]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I remember saying a few days ago we would know by tonight. It appears that was a lie and we still don’t know. 

2019 learned me to never give up hope and to also add 30-40 plus days   for the event to play out that was modeled in a week…yikes ! 

[yellowstone]

GFS is trash. That said, totals for SEA and PDX bumped up on GEFS from the 12 and 18z…

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

GFS is trash. That said, totals for SEA and PDX bumped up on GEFS from the 12 and 18z…

00z is better also on the GEFS

Edited December 16, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[bainbridgekid]

2nd straight UK run to show 6+ inches in a CZ North of Seattle Sunday night.

[TacomaWx]

Here comes the euro. Good luck folks may your location be buried under snow on this run. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I remember saying a few days ago we would know by tonight. It appears that was a lie and we still don’t know. 

Moving the goalposts

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS long range and lookie there! Our old buddy AL is making his presence known.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 Model Comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Nov1985]

45 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Man this pattern just looks so fluky from a 500mb perspective. No wonder we still don’t have consensus on this. 

Getting real cold and snow in wester WA/OR is kinda of a climo fluke right? Almost every event seems to have a sketchy aspect to it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS long range and lookie there! Our old buddy AL is making his presence known.

It’s progressive. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Do you believe in Christmas miracles? 

I do! Let’s go King EURO, please follow your Cousin UKMET!