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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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2 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

One model has a 20% chance of slightly warmer air reaching Seattle for a few hours. WINTER IS CANCELLED 

Now you're getting it!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Guest hawkstwelve
5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hope you've kept your cyanide capsules in a memorable place for when then the mixing begins around 2am...

Don't worry bud, I've got you, Joe, and Jay covered. I'm out here with my hair dryer aimed at the sky. As you once said in a DM that I think we can now make public, you relish these kinds of days where anyone who could be described as a "Snow Enthusiast" is curb stomped by your surgical execution model prognostications. I've got my fingers crossed for you that you'll get a chance to post that "Oh look, the long range is warm, the roads are bare and wet, and next year looks like a mega Nino".

Time for an update to Der Untergang.

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Montana has almost seemed exempt from AGW. Continental variability is extreme enough to mute its effects on a day-to-day perspective.

Very true and a good explanation why. Bozeman was one of the very few cities that actually cooled with its newest 1991-2020 climate normals.

From wiki:

"Unlike most of the country, Bozeman has actually gotten cooler with the new 1991–2020 normals. Average highs dropped by 1.7°F (0.72°C), especially in spring and summer. It has also gotten wetter and snowier."

Screen Shot 2022-12-19 at 10.30.57 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Forum Admin said:

Don't worry bud, I've got you, Joe, and Jay covered. I'm out here with my hair dryer aimed at the sky. As you once said in a DM that I think we can now make public, you relish these kinds of days where anyone who could be described as a "Snow Enthusiast" is curb stomped by your surgical execution model prognostications. I've got my fingers crossed for you that you'll get a chance to post that "Oh look, the long range is warm, the roads are bare and wet, and next year looks like a mega Nino".

Time for an update to Der Untergang.

The council decided it would be best if we could all return to our productivity tomorrow, instead of this silly frozen crap. People have jobs to go to and an economy to support! All this dangerous, childish snow talk peddled by losers over the internet with nothing better to do... It irks me in every which way.

Anyways, I hope it dumps a fuckking foot and a half right over my stupid house.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

ECMWF looks too warm for high temps today

1671483600-RkLQxOFX9DI.png

Was just looking at that. EPS seems to be a few degrees colder everywhere than the Operational throughout the next few days. Current temps seem to be splitting the difference. With 2M temps and with the event underway I would assume the Operational would be much more accurate for  point-in-time temps given the resolution and initialization. Omak is currently 1F with winds 22mph out of the North. EPS said -4F and ECMWF saying 3F. Moses Lake is currently 5F when EPS has it at 8F and ECMWF is showing 14F. Temps are closer on the west side, but still interesting imo. 

 

image.thumb.png.7f2d340271bae504a0fecb694f5d0015.png

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Very true and a good explanation why. Bozeman was one of the very few cities that actually cooled with its newest 1991-2020 climate normals.

From wiki:

"Unlike most of the country, Bozeman has actually gotten cooler with the new 1991–2020 normals. Average highs dropped by 1.7°F (0.72°C), especially in spring and summer. It has also gotten wetter and snowier."

Screen Shot 2022-12-19 at 10.30.57 AM.png

I actually knew that tidbit! Really interesting... -1.7°F isn't a subtle drop, either. I have a feeling it has to do with our unusual amount of La Niña winters this century, which are generally much colder and more active in Montana. As for the warm season, MT is actually east enough to benefit from our recent anomalous sharp, narrow ridging right over the spine of the west coast. And the enhanced 4CH brings in more monsoonal moisture.

Basically, you are in the exact perfect spot to benefit from inter-decadal natural variability; enough to completely offset and even overpower global warming. Imagine how much chillier it would be in Bozeman without AGW!

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Really dislike the trend on the HRRR. BIG euro run coming up…come on 🤞 

After this it's sat/radar/obs!

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I actually knew that tidbit! Really interesting... -1.7°F isn't a subtle drop, either. I have a feeling it has to do with our unusual amount of La Niña winters this century, which are generally much colder and more active in Montana. As for the warm season, MT is actually east enough to benefit from our recent anomalous sharp, narrow ridging right over the spine of the west coast. And the enhanced 4CH brings in more monsoonal moisture.

Basically, you are in the exact perfect spot to benefit from inter-decadal natural variability; enough to completely offset and even overpower global warming. Imagine how much chillier it would be in Bozeman without AGW!

Again, great explanation and really interesting stuff!

  • Thanks 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Light snow now, starting to cover the sidewalk and roads a bit. 29F.

  • Like 6

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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man!

Snow will taper off from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon 
through Tuesday evening for much of Eastern Washington and 
exiting the lower Idaho Panhandle Wednesday morning. As this 
system exits to the east, another surge of Arctic air will flood 
into the region in its wake likely ushering the coldest 
temperatures we will see through this entire event. High 
temperatures on Wednesday will only top out in the single digits 
for most locations with some teens across the far southeast then 
overnight lows for Wednesday night into Thursday will become 
extremely cold for Thursday morning with nearly all locations 
falling below zero and may areas across the north near -15F or 
colder. NBM probabilities for MinT on Thursday morning to fall 
below zero are now between 90-100% for all areas north of Pullman 
with the Lewiston Area residing near 65%. This second push of 
Arctic air on Wednesday and Wednesday night will also come with 
another push of north to northeast winds producing wind chills 
between -15 and -35 degrees F
. /sb

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2 minutes ago, Sam said:

Longtime listener, first time caller... very excited to see how this system plays out – I'm located in Kent on East Hill 

Current conditions: nippy with very light flurries

Welcome to the discussion, glad you've decided to join the madness!

  • Like 4

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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