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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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1 minute ago, snow maniac said:

Well I was hoping I would see more then 2 inches of snow this winter, this ain’t going to help.

February 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS weeklies flip below normal as soon as February starts. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's beginning to look like the models are latching onto a fairly drawn out retrogression scenario going forward.  Big ridge sets up along the East Coast, retrogrades to the West for a while, and then ends up over the GOA late this next month.  With some coolish weather early in the month, maybe some fake cold mid month, and then real cold late month we could still pull out a chilly January.

Obviously this whole idea could change in a day though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS weeklies flip below normal as soon as February starts. 

It kind of looks like it could start late Jan on a few runs.  Some of the best events on record are late Jan / early Feb events.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, antipex said:

32.2 now. First time above freezing since the 12th. Four highs in single digits; three lows below zero peaking at -22 on the 22nd. Average temp for December is 20.3 so far. Somewhere between 25-30” of snow on the ground and a layer of ice on top.

No doubt this will go down as one of the great Nov / Dec combos on record for cold.  Especially east of the Cascades and in the NW Interior of WA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the big wildcard that could speed up our road to cold would be an unexpectedly potent MJO wave.  Would love to see January deliver this winter or at least not be a total turd.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Cali is looking just a bit wet on the major models. Up to 30" of precipitation in the Sierra on the GEM and 15-20" on the GFS/Euro over the next 10 days.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Cali is looking just a bit wet on the major models. Up to 30" of precipitation in the Sierra on the GEM and 15-20" on the GFS/Euro over the next 10 days.

No doubt the switch has flipped for them this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like we had a pretty weird blast of wind here earlier today.  Dead calm when I went to bed last night, dead calm when I woke up, and yet my weather station says there was a gust to 32 at some point out of the SW.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the big wildcard that could speed up our road to cold would be an unexpectedly potent MJO wave.  Would love to see January deliver this winter or at least not be a total turd.

First half of the month is toast. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I see a lot of people are taking a break from the forum after the recent craziness.  I totally get it....I was spent yesterday.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

First half of the month is toast. 

Yeah....other than maybe a few coolish mP type days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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62 in downtown Salem. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

62 in downtown Salem. 

One thing after those extremely high amp blocks, it's hard to not torch for a while afterward.  So far I've gotten off pretty easy here in that regard.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's beginning to look like the models are latching onto a fairly drawn out retrogression scenario going forward.  Big ridge sets up along the East Coast, retrogrades to the West for a while, and then ends up over the GOA late this next month.  With some coolish weather early in the month, maybe some fake cold mid month, and then real cold late month we could still pull out a chilly January.

Obviously this whole idea could change in a day though.

That makes sense.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Don't know how much talk there is of this as I haven't been on since before Christmas but tonight and tmrw could be a pretty major windstorm for the Oregon coast.1672120800-wsydDTS6WfY.png1672167600-oeJyjtwgqTw.png1672160400-6bbnBIHsUMs.png1672124400-EOiVt9pkcyg.png1672120800-M9KWyCdakLI.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Has there been an accurate long-range forecast wince the summer? I seem to remember them all being grossly wrong so far. 

Most of them tried to do away with the blocking regime that we had been stuck in until last week all the way back in September. 

Something is really throwing models off more than normal, and that something sure looks like Hunga Tonga. Maybe there's nothing in the models to account for that amount of water vapor in the upper stratosphere, or there's no data to account for it.

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Has there been an accurate long-range forecast wince the summer? I seem to remember them all being grossly wrong so far. 

Most of them tried to do away with the blocking regime that we had been stuck in until last week all the way back in September. 

Something is really throwing models off more than normal, and that something sure looks like Hunga Tonga. Maybe there's nothing in the models to account for that amount of water vapor in the upper stratosphere, or there's no data to account for it.

Long range forecasting has never been good.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Has there been an accurate long-range forecast wince the summer? I seem to remember them all being grossly wrong so far. 

Most of them tried to do away with the blocking regime that we had been stuck in until last week all the way back in September. 

Something is really throwing models off more than normal, and that something sure looks like Hunga Tonga. Maybe there's nothing in the models to account for that amount of water vapor in the upper stratosphere, or there's no data to account for it.

There are two huge anomalies in the stratosphere from 25S to 65S that have to be offset in some way in the global atmospheric "budget".  Those being abnormally high water vapor and abnormally cold strat temps.

I still think the smoking gun could be the solar grand minimum also.  This exact effect was speculated by some scientists as the GM really got going.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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With regard to the possible wind event for some areas over the next day or two...I can't ever recall seeing a low just stall right at the North Coast of WA and pretty much die there before moving inland.   Really strange.  Should still be some fairly good winds in some areas though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, gusky said:

Don't know how much talk there is of this as I haven't been on since before Christmas but tonight and tmrw could be a pretty major windstorm for the Oregon coast.1672120800-wsydDTS6WfY.png1672167600-oeJyjtwgqTw.png1672160400-6bbnBIHsUMs.png1672124400-EOiVt9pkcyg.png1672120800-M9KWyCdakLI.png

Will be interesting to see how windy Sunriver gets tomorrow. I’m not sure how good south-central OR is for windstorms like these.

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I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

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Running my stats, this week is going to ruin most of the cold anomalies for the month south of PDX. That’s okay. Will essentially go cold November, average December, warm January, and cold February and March. 🫠

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There are two huge anomalies in the stratosphere from 25S to 65S that have to be offset in some way in the global atmospheric "budget".  Those being abnormally high water vapor and abnormally cold strat temps.

I still think the smoking gun could be the solar grand minimum also.  This exact effect was speculated by some scientists as the GM really got going.

Well based on solar activity we likely aren't in GSM and won't be until the 2030's

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

We were gonna spend Christmas Eve there but the pass closed before we got in the car 😕 I had to improvise a dinner, and lemme just say prime roast are CHEAP on Christmas eve. received_891780545174632.thumb.jpeg.612d8af1e1353585ea0753ad36aefc00.jpeg20221224_201832.thumb.jpg.ae7414cb17cb4ad067cab706091486ed.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

Just came over blewett. It was fine, snow looks shiny. Warm air punched through at my cabin. 34 degrees. The amount of snow in the Okanagan valley is nuts! 2 feet on the ground in omak and pateros is just crazy.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just came over blewett. It was fine, snow looks shiny. Warm air punched through at my cabin. 34 degrees. The amount of snow in the Okanagan valley is nuts! 2 feet on the ground in omak and pateros is just crazy.  

Very 1996-ish over there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I'm still below freezing here.  Right now at 30, warmest in a long time.  I don't think I've been above freezing since early November.   We've had lots of freezing rain over the last 48 hours and everything is pretty icy.  Highway 2 might be ok, not sure about other roads.   All the cross country ski trails in town are closed because it's a sheet of ice.

They are still forecasting rain and then snow overnight, and maybe more snow later this week.  

Looks like I will have about 24 hrs of wet snow or a mix tomorrow and then Tuesday night snow level comes back down.  Normally the arctic air hangs on better up here but even Winthrop is at 30 now. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just came over blewett. It was fine, snow looks shiny. Warm air punched through at my cabin. 34 degrees. The amount of snow in the Okanagan valley is nuts! 2 feet on the ground in omak and pateros is just crazy.  

Blewett had been closed earlier this morning because of a jack-knifed semi.  Glad it's cleared up.  

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The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was thinking of you when I drove through there. I bet this is the deepest there since 96. Looks like about 30 inches deep in pateros.

I talked to my old boss over there yesterday and he said just that, although this run was more persistent. He said they have about three and a half feet at Alta Lake. Just an incredible 11/1-12/25 for them.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

IS terrible? By January standards? That must be pretty bad. Or maybe you meant is not terrible? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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