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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

idk, looks cool and active and wet to me. not terrible at all.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is terrible at the end....especially by January standards.  A lot of seasonably cool days after tomorrow.

 

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

idk, looks cool and active and wet to me. not terrible at all.

I think it was a typo…Possibly? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

idk, looks cool and active and wet to me. not terrible at all.

I would not be surprised by a January that ends up near normal. 

1) It doesn't take much these days with the new averages. 

2) Once that low goes through tomorrow we are pretty much done with extreme torching. 

3) We are still in the heart of inversion season for the next 2-3 weeks. 

4) Most long range guidance has us torching much less than the rest of the country. 

5) Going off the long range GEFS runs, one could make a strong case surface temps in the PNW will be near to slightly BELOW normal in January. 

6) The last week of the month definitely has strong potential, and could pull down averages. 

If I were to make a guess on January I would say near normal temps and precip. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well I put all of the snow related items back in their waiting areas…Until January 18th when things go nuts again! And my driveway snow pile is hanging in there! 
Currently 50 degrees. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With regard to the possible wind event for some areas over the next day or two...I can't ever recall seeing a low just stall right at the North Coast of WA and pretty much die there before moving inland.   Really strange.  Should still be some fairly good winds in some areas though.

Im not really seeing anything too unusual in it. The low pressure is already filling in by tomorrow morning. Crosses through the strait around mid day tomorrow and then the low center reforms east of the Rockies later in the day. 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Im not really seeing anything too unusual in it. The low pressure is already filling in by tomorrow morning. Crosses through the strait around mid day tomorrow and then the low center reforms east of the Rockies later in the day. 

Do you think there will be any westerly surge down the strait? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SLE has bumped to 61 now. This is painful to watch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We are at 5.11" of precip on the month. Average being around 11.5", I just don't see a path there at this point. Going by the GFS and EURO we will end up in the 8-10" range it looks like. Certainly not a disastrously dry month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Doinko said:

Really glad PDX has the gorge. It's 39 there and in the 50s at Hillsboro and my place. They only got up to 43 yesterday

Yeah, PDX manages to avoid the insane torch and will end up with a solidly below average December. It works both ways sometimes. December 2017 ended up really cold for SLE and EUG basically because a bunch of early month low level cold stuff. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Doinko said:

Really glad PDX has the gorge. It's 39 there and in the 50s at Hillsboro and my place. They only got up to 43 yesterday

I feel like once the wind switches to southerly there they will start putting up some really absurd warm numbers. Usually they are one of the last stations to give up the chilly offshore flow during the cold season, but once the switch to southerlies finally happens they become one of the torchiest spots on the west side.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I am growing more jealous by the moment as my wife and kids are flying out to the Cabo area tomorrow to join our neighbors/friends at their beach house there. It’s too hard for me to leave the house in the winter since my mom lives with us and the risk of power outages, etc are just too great for me to go far from the house this time of the year. I will be going in the spring however, looking forward to that! Looks like they will have perfect weather. 

046A9E59-9939-4B1C-B5C4-BE8BE7B0C68E.png

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did Hoquiam seriously hit 65 this morning? A lot of places sure are paying for that BLAST of low level cold in short order.

Meanwhile we are still hanging on to a tiny sliver of cold near the Gorge. 43 here, 39 at PDX. Ended up with a 44/32 day yesterday.
 

Looks pretty suspect.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I feel like once the wind switches to southerly there they will start putting up some really absurd warm numbers. Usually they are one of the last stations to give up the chilly offshore flow during the cold season, but once the switch to southerlies finally happens they become one of the torchiest spots on the west side.

They might, but they missed out on torching the past two days, and 850mb temps go below 0C by tomorrow afternoon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They might, but they missed out on torching the past two days, and 850mb temps go below 0C by tomorrow afternoon. 

Ironically, they were the last westside location to have a sub-40 high and now they will also be the last westside location to go 50+ on the month.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IS terrible? By January standards? That must be pretty bad. Or maybe you meant is not terrible? 

Oh shit!  I used the wrong word.  Should have been isn't.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53F and cloudy. Not as bad as I thought it would be.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Im not really seeing anything too unusual in it. The low pressure is already filling in by tomorrow morning. Crosses through the strait around mid day tomorrow and then the low center reforms east of the Rockies later in the day. 

It's just the way the low stalls off the coast that is odd.  Usually they have a lot more forward momentum.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

53F and cloudy. Not as bad as I thought it would be.

Yeah....we're just about through the warmest part already.  The warmest it has gotten here since the freeze is only 51.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Love it up here. 

Mid 30's is about the warmest you will ever see it here in December through mid February. 

That's the huge advantage over Central and Eastern OR.  The northern third to half of Central and Eastern WA holds onto the cold way better.  Even parts of Montana are torching today so that's really impressive.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The EPS control actually gets a bit chilly for week two.  We may avoid a horrible first of January at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control actually gets a bit chilly for week two.  We may avoid a horrible first of January at least.

I think by tomorrow afternoon the major torching is over. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Puntzi mountain BC is up to 41F after being -55F five days ago. 

Didn't know they had gotten that cold.  Wow!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think by tomorrow afternoon the major torching is over. 

I'm happy about that.  The month will still end up pretty solidly below normal for many.  850s drop to around -5 up here tomorrow night so not terrible by any means.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently 51.0. At 0.32” of rain so far today. Got woken up around 7 this morning to a burst of wind and rain slamming against my window. Things were definitely wild out there this morning!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did Hoquiam seriously hit 65 this morning? A lot of places sure are paying for that BLAST of low level cold in short order.

Meanwhile we are still hanging on to a tiny sliver of cold near the Gorge. 43 here, 39 at PDX. Ended up with a 44/32 day yesterday.
 

It might be real.  There are many off hour observations over 60 and they had a big blast of south winds come through at that time with gusts to 55.  It was very localized it appears.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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