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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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KSEA will probably pull a -2 to -3 on Dec with the late month torching. Not bad at all and certainly an active month.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Currently 51.0. At 0.32” of rain so far today. Got woken up around 7 this morning to a burst of wind and rain slamming against my window. Things were definitely wild out there this morning!

That was one quick wind burst.  It was calm when I went to bed and calm when I got up.  I noticed rain had been blown up against the windows and discovered we had a gust to 32 on my weather station.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA will probably pull a -2 to -3 on Dec with the late month torching. Not bad at all and certainly an active month.

Temps will be normal after tomorrow.  Maybe even a couple of small minuses.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA will probably pull a -2 to -3 on Dec with the late month torching. Not bad at all and certainly an active month.

Yesterday and the day before were actually negative departures in Portland. I think PDX will probably be in that range too. Coldest December since 2016 most likely

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yesterday and the day before were actually negative departures in Portland. I think PDX will probably be in that range too. Coldest December since 2016 most likely

I still had an impressive 34.9 month to date average after yesterday.  Still have a shot at coming in below last year's 36.8 for the month.

I pulled off a lucky low of 40 yesterday while SEA was 47.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Currently 51.0. At 0.32” of rain so far today. Got woken up around 7 this morning to a burst of wind and rain slamming against my window. Things were definitely wild out there this morning!

Such a crazy wind burst. It was like a constant high wind without any gusts. Just a wind tunnel of sorts. Super odd and loud. 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It might be real.  There are many off hour observations over 60 and they had a big blast of south winds come through at that time with gusts to 55.  It was very localized it appears.

If you believe it, then somehow they pulled off a seven degree drop in eight minutes with no change in winds or DP.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weeklies are in

All frames are 5 day averages.  Last few frames always look weird, not sure why.  Probably related to having 5 day averages and the last few days don't have all the days 

 

49278992_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif

That looks pretty nice.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Cliff calling for a big time regional wind event. He’s on the high side of models and I think he will nail it. Windstorms are his sweet spot and this is a really nice track. image.thumb.png.730aa0d07963032be381e86740aa8fce.pngimage.thumb.png.2f3a35903d4641041f1cb219d3608271.png

Those tight gradients just need to shift north a few more miles!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Cliff calling for a big time regional wind event. He’s on the high side of models and I think he will nail it. Windstorms are his sweet spot and this is a really nice track. image.thumb.png.730aa0d07963032be381e86740aa8fce.pngimage.thumb.png.2f3a35903d4641041f1cb219d3608271.png

I think the low fades out too much before it reaches the critical spot.  I think the ECMWF call for gusts around 50 is probably about right.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Those tight gradients just need to shift north a few more miles!! 

You can have every single isobar as far as I'm concerned.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weeklies are in

All frames are 5 day averages.  Last few frames always look weird, not sure why.  Probably related to having 5 day averages and the last few days don't have all the days 

 

49278992_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif

Looks like the end of the month into February could be solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Is a SSW still forecasted to happen? 

I don't even think that's much of an issue.  The ECMWF models already have above normal heights in the high latitudes for week two.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm happy about that.  The month will still end up pretty solidly below normal for many.  850s drop to around -5 up here tomorrow night so not terrible by any means.

Looks like -3 or -4 per the ECMWF and its brief... back to 0C by Thursday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If you believe it, then somehow they pulled off a seven degree drop in eight minutes with no change in winds or DP.

I certainly would like to see some corroboration with another nearby station.  We had the same (although weakened) wind surge come through here this morning and there was a very quick temp spike with it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'll be surprised if we see strong winds here. We are a very calm location.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like -3 or -4 per the ECMWF and its brief... back to 0C by Thursday.

Still not terrible.  The warmest weather we are going to see has pretty much happened already.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The weeklies show the PNA going minus on the 19th.  Not bad.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Is it really needed?  There was historic cold nationwide, and I don't remember it being associated with a SSW event.  Maybe it was?

It has seemed to bring us the goods in years past or am I off on that? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Still not terrible.  The warmest weather we are going to see has pretty much happened already.

True.   I doubt the near 60 degree weather can continue for an extended period of time.    That is about 15 degrees warmer than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I certainly would like to see some corroboration with another nearby station.  We had the same (although weakened) wind surge come through here this morning and there was a very quick temp spike with it.

Ocean Shores maxed out in the mid 50’s overnight.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True.   I doubt the near 60 degree weather can continue for an extended period of time.    That is about 15 degrees warmer than normal.

It hasn't gotten anywhere near 60 around here.

The ECMWF itself spits out highs a bit below normal for the most part after tomorrow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ocean Shores maxed out in the mid 50’s overnight.

The thing that throws me is there is no sign at all of the station malfunctioning.  I'll be interested to see what they do for the official obs for today.  I'm sure they will investigate it due to it being so extreme for this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the low fades out too much before it reaches the critical spot.  I think the ECMWF call for gusts around 50 is probably about right.

Looking more significant in western OR. Which is definitely due for a big storm and due to outperform the Puget Sound in a wind event.

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I'm really surprised how close the ECMWF weeklies and the GEFS extended are regarding the pattern evolution next month.  Maybe it's correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I am growing more jealous by the moment as my wife and kids are flying out to the Cabo area tomorrow to join our neighbors/friends at their beach house there. It’s too hard for me to leave the house in the winter since my mom lives with us and the risk of power outages, etc are just too great for me to go far from the house this time of the year. I will be going in the spring however, looking forward to that! Looks like they will have perfect weather. 

046A9E59-9939-4B1C-B5C4-BE8BE7B0C68E.png

You earned a vomit emoji from the person who hates any weather that is not wet and cold... kudos to you!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It hasn't gotten anywhere near 60 around here.

The ECMWF itself spits out highs a bit below normal for the most part after tomorrow.

57 at SEA and 60 at BLI.   We even managed mid 50s here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The NWS not even going for a high wind watch with the storm tomorrow.  I might at least do that just to advertise something might happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

57 at SEA and 60 at BLI.   We even managed mid 50s here.   

Didn't know about the BLI number.  Won't even put a dent in their monthly average though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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