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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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Could be worse. 

F61A9C7D-2E0B-4D07-96E0-2F44A7AFFC73.jpeg

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Not my pic but this is from 2 years ago in Japan after a late snowstorm, what I would give to experience UW's cherry blossoms during peak bloom with snowfall around here. The aesthetic even has a dedicated name for it called hanabie or "flower chilling", the phenomenon of flowers blooming during bitter cold. Something incredibly serene and calming to see the pink hues mix in with the white glow of snow. It'll be on the bucket list to experience snowy Japanese winters and springs one day. 🤞

Sakurasnow_top.jpg

Ooh, something to add to my weather bucket list. This is beautiful!

Like the frazil ice in Yosemite that I missed by just a couple of hours a few years ago. There were remnants at the stream edge but we weren't staying in the Valley and got hung up with some car trouble and then the line to get in. Some day!

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40/36 today.

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What's a methow?

Good question, so I looked it up on Wikipedia 

The Methow (/ˈmɛth/ MET-how) are a Native American tribe that lived along the Methow River, a tributary of the Columbia River in northern Washington.[1] The river's English name is taken from that of the tribe. The name "Methow" comes from the Okanagan placename /mətxʷú/, meaning "sunflower (seeds)". The tribe's name for the river was Buttlemuleemauch, meaning "salmon falls river".[

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2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

The February 2018  and January 2021 SSWs also led to some cold in the west.

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3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past on the forum and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

Either way we'll all be happy with our 20-30" of snow regionwide in late January!

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3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

Yeah, thanks in part to a certain mountains of Maryland poster, SSWs are a bit overhyped on this forum. If they statistically increase the odds of an Arctic outbreak in the PNW, as far as I can tell it's a small difference.

A forum for the end of the world.

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54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past on the forum and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

The February 2019 was, did you mean that year?  It was a Nino, and during a Nino February is the least likely month to get cold and snow, but the SSW in the right location overwhelmed the Nino.  

I know Ventrice has done research into Siberian SSW events vs North Atlantic SSW events. 

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54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past on the forum and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

I’d always take my chances with a big ol’ stratospheric blast furnace. They just tend to result in pattern chaos and often very strong blocking patterns.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The February 2019 was, did you mean that year?  It was a Nino, and during a Nino February is the least likely month to get cold and snow, but the SSW in the right location overwhelmed the Nino.  

I know Ventrice has done research into Siberian SSW events vs North Atlantic SSW events. 

The cold period in late February 2018 was preceded by a pretty wicked warming episode.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I honestly always thought that SSW’s increased odds of cold and snow around here. Don’t they usually make things more blocky?

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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The little sprinkles falling into this light makes it look like there’s a bunch of little bugs flying around it.

40342334-2843-42C8-808C-4901E7E965B3.jpeg

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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12 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I honestly always thought that SSW’s increased odds of cold and snow around here. Don’t they usually make things more blocky?

In general, yes, for the very high latitudes. But much more important to PNW cold and snow is where the blocking sets up. 

SSWs increase the odds of -AO. But that doesn't necessarily increase the odds of Arctic air reaching the PNW...in fact, many of the coldest/snowiest episodes in PNW history did not feature major -AO.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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6 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

This forum during the 1999-2005 period would have been fun.

It wasn't.  There was an early version of this forum for the last part of that time frame.  Things are way better now as far as cold and snow are concerned.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I honestly always thought that SSW’s increased odds of cold and snow around here. Don’t they usually make things more blocky?

It's only a factor on some of our cold events.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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40 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last post in this thread was almost an hour ago.

RIP winter.

I'm still recovering from last week to some extent.  It was a wild ride.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears the ensembles still like the idea of a retrogression / Pacific jet retraction as we get into January.  I think I'll go with that idea for now.  Should result in things getting into good position by the latter part of January.

In the short term both the ECMWF and GFS have been hinting at some reasonably chilly weather at times over the next 10 days and much drier by the weekend.  I'm glad the post cold wave torch was short lived.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In general, yes, for the very high latitudes. But much more important to PNW cold and snow is where the blocking sets up. 

SSWs increase the odds of -AO. But that doesn't necessarily increase the odds of Arctic air reaching the PNW...in fact, many of the coldest/snowiest episodes in PNW history did not feature major -AO.

That’s pretty interesting. Would you say the PNW has better odds at having an arctic blast during a weak -AO than a strong one?

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

That’s pretty interesting. Would you say the PNW has better odds at having an arctic blast during a weak -AO than a strong one?

I know that Feb 1989 was caused by a transition from super positive AO to minus AO.  The super positive phase allowed AK to get extremely cold and then the cold dumped our way when the AO flipped.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

That’s pretty interesting. Would you say the PNW has better odds at having an arctic blast during a weak -AO than a strong one?

I haven't seen any statistically significant correlation with the AO one way or the other.

I think one thing to keep in mind is you can't have blocking everywhere up north. It is definitely possible to have -AO/-NAO-/-EPO, but more often you'll have blocking in some regions but not others.

NE Pacific/Alaskan blocking is far and away the most important piece for the PNW to get cold.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Power just came back on after 26 hours.   The Snoqualmie Valley was just pounded with this system.    It would be interesting to understand the dynamics because we are often completely missed by windstorms that hit the Puget Sound.    

I guess there was major damage to main transmission lines.   They were using helicopters today to look for damage.   

What worked in our favor this time was that most areas were not hit hard so PSE could focus all their resources out here.   In 2006 we had to wait 10 long days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Bo knowZ 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

A lot of it is we’ve been model riding non stop since before thanksgiving too. We finished up the first event in early December…and just a couple days later the models started looking really good again. 

I will say it’s definitely felt nice to have a little break from model riding. It’s nice being able to focus on other things in life instead of being glued to this forum. 😂

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

A lot of it is we’ve been model riding non stop since before thanksgiving too. We finished up the first event in early December…and just a couple days later the models started looking really good again. 

Everyone was watching the Holiday Bowl. 

  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still recovering from last week to some extent.  It was a wild ride.

And your ride was so calm compared to the craziness out here.   10 inches of snow... arctic air... major ice storm... and then major windstorm.    And two extended power outages to boot.    I am definitely going to enjoy the quiet weather for awhile.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The February 2019 was, did you mean that year?  It was a Nino, and during a Nino February is the least likely month to get cold and snow, but the SSW in the right location overwhelmed the Nino.  

I know Ventrice has done research into Siberian SSW events vs North Atlantic SSW events. 

Warming originates over Siberia.  Remains to be seen if it evolves into a full blown SSW or just a weakened PV. A definitely don’t think an SSW is a necessity to PNW blasts but I do think it could help prevent the pacific from overwhelming the pattern 

 

B01CB3A0-3A52-411A-9BE7-99171CAA5701.png

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52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Power just came back on after 26 hours.   The Snoqualmie Valley was just pounded with this system.    It would be interesting to understand the dynamics because we are often completely missed by windstorms that hit the Puget Sound.    

I guess there was major damage to main transmission lines.   They were using helicopters today to look for damage.   

What worked in our favor this time was that most areas were not hit hard so PSE could focus all their resources out here.   In 2006 we had to wait 10 long days.

Wow crazy!! This was quite the unusual system. Hardly a breeze up here from mid day on yesterday. 
You have a long way to go to meet my nearly 100 hours without power last month! 😀 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The GFS is kind of interesting.  Pretty cool for a lot of the run and trying to shut off the Pacific.  This might be going somewhere.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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