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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down here I don't think that would even be difficult. There was a pretty significant N/S temp gradient for a lot of last winter, so it might be tougher in the Seattle area. The period next week is sort of reminding me of the late January 2021 period, at least from what we might expect with an observed weather standpoint. 

IIRC there was some lowland snow down in the willamette valley near the coastal range with that one. 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

IIRC there was some lowland snow down in the willamette valley near the coastal range with that one. 

There was, it was mainly from about Salem-west. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This was the main action in January 2021

snow-totals-metro-area-and-valley2.png

snow-totals-metro-area-and-valley.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS toying with a chance of snow for Thursday afternoon with temps in the low-mid 30s while the Euro is in the mid-40s for the same time frame. Continued theme of warm vs. cold biases between the two models for this winter. Good thing it's 7 days out, so they are quite meaningless and useless. 🙄

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14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS toying with a chance of snow for Thursday afternoon with temps in the low-mid 30s while the Euro is in the mid-40s for the same time frame. Continued theme of warm vs. cold biases between the two models for this winter. Good thing it's 7 days out, so they are quite meaningless and useless. 🙄

One of the reliefs about living here is that it seems we won't be involved in the outcome so it'll be entertaining to watch y'all go crazy again.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure how the last few triple dip Nina’s have performed over the last 150 years or so…but this one’s gotta be at or almost the top of the list. Had 15.5” in 2020-2021….11.3” in 2021-2022 and 6.0” so far in 2022-2023. Definitely better than the last one. 

In the modern era, there have really only been 3 other ones: 1998-01, 1973-76, and 1954-57. Every 20-25 years like clockwork. 🙂

The last one (1954-57) has been the gold standard...would definitely need at least one more major event this winter for the recent stretch to be in the conversation.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In the modern era, there have really only been 3 other ones: 1998-01, 1973-76, and 1954-57. Every 20-25 years like clockwork. 🙂

The last one has been the gold standard...would definitely need at least one more major event this winter for the recent stretch to be in the conversation.

Thanks Cereal box tiger 

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Yeah, at this point a month like January 1957 is probably off the table from this ENSO run. Maybe if we were to have a regional blast at the end January, a February 2019 redux, and then a solidly chilly March with lowland snow, Seattle could make a good argument that it rivaled the 1954-57 stretch. South of PDX the 2020-21 winter was kind of a dud. I suppose 1954-55 was pretty meh outside of March down this way, but it was still probably a bit better than 20-21. I think we are at a point where even down here this run was clearly better than 1998-2001. 

As for this winter, I had hopes that it could end up as the best of the 21st Century. I'm not willing to write that off yet, but we would need some big time late January/February magic. But no complaints. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Anyone have an update on January?  Primarily mid/late January?  Are the trends still looking good?

Euro Weeklies should be out today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just ran some numbers, projecting out through the end of the month. We are going to come very close, but may come in just below November's average temp. Looks like we are on pace for 36.5, November was 36.8. Obviously if we had avoided the torching we would have beaten it easily. Even if we end up a little warmer than expected the next two days we should beat out last December's 37.2. Our 30 year December mean is 37.5, so we should come in with about a -1 departure. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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55 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Another interesting control run.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-1672315200-1672941600-1673287200-20.gif

The control run is usually interesting in one way or another.

But the 12Z EPS is far from anything interesting in the 10-15 day period.   Other than a wet pattern for CA.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-3611200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-3611200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_5day_mm-3611200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The control run is usually interesting in one way or another.

But the 12Z EPS is far from anything interesting in the 10-15 day period.   Other than a wet pattern for CA.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-3611200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-3611200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_5day_mm-3611200.png

Thanks for posting. This is nothing new honestly. The 2nd and 3rd weeks of January are going to be pretty uninspiring. If we do end up with near normal temps during that period it will be a big win. Of the first 3 weeks of January, pretty much all guidance shows the first week being the coolest in our region. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A foot of Rain in Atascadero and San Luis Obispo. Insane.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No MLK Day in the UK :( 

Ahh, but there’s this…

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/02/martin-luther-king-in-london-1964-reflections-on-a-landmark-visit
 

Several days later it got VERY cold here and then sh*t flooded.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

18z ICON looks rock solid.

what's the TREND??

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Pretty dreary day in Salem. 

422F80C0-5BEE-46BB-A87A-BB16486D1DCA.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently 46.3 and at 0.02” of rain from some showers moving through. It’s great to see the models showing a ton of rain for California. They really need it more than anyone and I hope they get enough this winter to end the drought!

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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