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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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The wind storm event I was talking about yesterday is beginning to make blow into Oregon's southern and central coast.  It ramps up later tonight, but swells are already increasing with sustained 10-18mph winds around Lincoln City.  Here was a live shot from their camera less then a minute ago.  Gusts will start get in the 30-50mph range in the coming hours.

 

Screen Shot 2022-12-29 at 2.54.53 PM.png

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35 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

giphy.gif

Gorgeous

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_n.png

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_s.png

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Yes but is that the area where it works for us later on? Hmmmm, that’s the question. 

I dunno. And right now it’s just progged to be a fender bender as opposed to Princess Di vs. paparazzi type scenario.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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15 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

That’s awesome. Jack Kerouac would approve. 

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1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

D**n I wish I was there. Most scenic coastline in America. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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How did the weeklies look? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

How are the forecasts for the PDO, PNA, EPO, and NAO looking? 

I just came on here to comment about the PNA forecast from today's ECMWF weeklies.  It shows sub -1 as we get into February which is about as strong a signal as I've ever seen that far out.  Being that these things often happen faster than projected I'm thinking the final week of January for things to get going.  Could even be sooner if things take an unforeseen path to reach the goodies.

  • Excited 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_n.png

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_s.png

I couldn't help but see Yuma, Arizona at a sad 0.1" of rain. 

If there's one town in the Lower 48 I could think of that has the most excruciatingly boring weather that would drive weenies insane, it'd be Yuma. Instant move to Flagstaff for me. 

𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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The models look remarkably dry after this next system.  You would never think so looking at the 500mb maps for next week.  A lot of jet suppression and surface high pressure it appears.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just came on here to comment about the PNA forecast from today's ECMWF weeklies.  It shows sub -1 as we get into February which is about as strong a signal as I've ever seen that far out.  Being that these things often happen faster than projected I'm thinking the final week of January for things to get going.  Could even be sooner if things take an unforeseen path to reach the goodies.

What about the EPO?

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23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-1672272000-1672876800-1676246400-20.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-1672272000-1672876800-1676246400-20.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_7day-1672272000-1672876800-1676246400-20.gif

The excitement is palpable.

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 hours ago, Chris said:

Anecdotally I believe SSWs significantly increase the PNW odds in a Nino winter. 

Since 1958, there have been 18 SSW events during El Nino winters.

15 of those impacted the Continental U.S.

8 of those impacted the PNW, them being Jan 1958, Dec 1965, Feb 1966, Nov 1968, Jan 1970, Dec 1987, Feb 2007, and Jan 2019.

Statistically, that's a 44% chance a SSW affects us during an El Nino. La Ninas are at a higher margin, with 50% (8 out of 16) affecting the PNW. There are also more household names on the La Nina side. Feb 1989, Dec 1998, and Feb 2021 just to name a few. 

Overall, I would view SSWs during ENSO events the same way I view them on lowland snow. Sure, there is an increase for snow during La Nina but it is not guaranteed.

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Looking at the surface pressure maps for the ECMWF at day 10 this is actually a pretty chilly pattern.  The main jet is well retracted westward and the cutoff low off of CA leaves us in a NE surface pressure gradient with slightly below normal 850s.  Pretty cold by recent Jan standards. 

1673179200-I1xfRqSMSiM.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What about the EPO?

Zero which is fine.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models look remarkably dry after this next system.  You would never think so looking at the 500mb maps for next week.  A lot of jet suppression and surface high pressure it appears.

Lots of chances here in Central OR for wraparound precip and easterly/upslope flow.  I like it.

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2 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

Since 1958, there have been 18 SSW events during El Nino winters.

15 of those impacted the Continental U.S.

8 of those impacted the PNW, them being Jan 1958, Dec 1965, Feb 1966, Nov 1968, Jan 1970, Dec 1987, Feb 2007, and Jan 2019.

Statistically, that's an 53% chance a SSW affects us during an El Nino. La Ninas are at a higher margin, with 61% (8 out of 13) affecting the PNW. There are also more household names on the La Nina side. Feb 1989, Dec 1998, and Feb 2021 just to name a few. 

Overall, I would view SSWs during ENSO events the same way I view them on lowland snow. Sure, there is an increase for snow during La Nina but it is not guaranteed.

The winter of 1957-58 was a colossal turd for the PNW though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Terreboner said:

Lots of chances here in Central OR for wraparound precip and easterly/upslope flow.  I like it.

Very possible with that pattern.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very possible with that pattern.

Right now the end of next week, Thur/Friday-ish is looking interesting.  Looks like lots of low level easterlies with precip overriding central and eastern OR.  Temps don't get out of the 20's for the duration.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

D**n I wish I was there. Most scenic coastline in America. 

It really is. Often you can see whale spouts from the gray whales passing by. Like I said, my parents would make us go every year even in rain... except there'd be a few years where the mudslides would close the road in both directions. Big Sur can be a real winner in storms like this one. The one bummer would be when it would rain on NYE because everyone would stay in their tents and the wild party would be not as fun. Some years on NYE we would even visit a now retired Monterey congressman's property about 10 mins away. That party wasn't as fun so we stopped going there and stayed at the campground. They also made everyone play for entertainment instead of for fun. My parents are also going on a trip to Baja to see the whales there for the first time, in just a few weeks so I'm a bit jealous.

I like camping and hiking but I think model riding is just as fun. Sure beats refreshing weather.com every 5 minutes 20 years ago for stations 1 hr north and south in hopes of a sunny week. Currently 37F at my location. We had some rain earlier.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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